Every week we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and give our outlook and some of the things we're watching for in the week ahead.
This week we're going to highlight our International ETF and Global Index tables, and focus on some of the rotation we're seeing into more offensive assets across the board. Let's dive into it.
Emerging Markets $EEM, particularly Latin America $ILF, continue to rebound strong. These two indexes were this week's leaders on our International ETF list but notice that they are also the top performers over the trailing one and three month periods.
Welcome to this week's edition of "Under The Hood." You can read more about the column here.
What we do is analyze the most popular Robinhood stocks over the trailing week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
This week we have a handful of trade ideas on the long side, many of which belong to the Health Care space and are working on Covid-19 vaccines.
We'll also walk through a number of mega-cap bellwethers and get a feel for what's going on in that space.
The stock market has been going crazy again this week, and maybe it's beginning to rub off on me... We usually only share about 10 charts in this post, but there is just too much going on in these names so I went a little crazy myself in looking through the charts for this week's post. We ended up with 14. Let's dive into it!
Here is this week's list of most popular stocks, measured by net increases in Robinhood accounts that hold shares.
Welcome to our latest edition of "Under The Hood." Read more about it here.
In this column, we analyze the most popular Robinhood stocks over the trailing week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
This week we have a handful of trade ideas on the long side in a number of names that continue to exhibit impressive relative strength.
Let's dive into it. Here is this week's list of most popular stocks, measured by net increases in Robinhood accounts that hold shares.
Every week we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
This week we're going to highlight our US Index and Sector ETF tables, and focus on the laggards as they are giving us the most important information for the current market environment. Let's dive into it.
No surprises here... The Nasdaq $QQQ outperformed aggressively once again last week, booking a +4.7% gain while Mid, Small, and Micro-Caps were all lower. The Nasdaq is the only US Index that is higher over the trailing month.
Responses to this week's Mystery Chart were mixed. Some were betting on a breakout and buying while others wanted to fade this against the prior highs.
Others were waiting for more information, which is likely what we'd be doing. Thanks to everyone for participating.
But this chart is already packed with information. Let's dive in and talk about what it is.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
Every week we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Being Independence Day weekend, we're going to highlight the continued structural outperformance from the US vs rest of the world in this week's post. As a good patriot and technician, I would be remiss not to take this opportunity to reflect on how grateful US investors should be.
Here are our US Index ETF and Global Index tables.
We haven't talked much about Real Estate $XLRE lately because there really hasn't been much to say. Over just about any timeframe, it's underperformed the S&P 500 $SPY, which we'll illustrate with a ratio chart below.
Price is basically unchanged over the trailing year. The only sectors that have performed worse are Industrials $XLI, Financials $XLF, and Energy $XLE. This is not a group you want to be associated with.
Looking at the chart, you'll notice it's gone nowhere for much longer than just the past year. XLRE has actually been chopping around in a messy range for the better part of four years now!
This is the third edition of our new "Under The Hood" column. Read more about it here.
We are already getting positive feedback on this new strategy from "Mr. Market" as both of our trade ideas from last week's post are now in the top 5 of this week's most popular stocks (measured by the net increase in ownership, week-over-week).
In other words, Robinhood investors have been buying these names hand-over-fist since we wrote about them last week. They've been rewarded for it too as they've both performed very well.
Workhorse $WKHS has really lived up to its name as it hit our price target in a matter of days, and then went on to double again from there. The stock is up about 4-fold since it broke above our risk level near 5 early last week.
Here is a look at the updated chart, with the same exact annotations from last week's post.
What's with all this talk about weak breadth lately?
A lot of market participants have been pointing out the divergences or lower highs in popular breadth indicators such as the percent of S&P 500 stocks at new 52-week highs or the percent above their 200-day moving average.
In many cases, these actually aren't divergences at all as the S&P is yet to make a new year-to-date high itself.
Just like we look at different breadth indicators to identify market tops than the ones we look at to signal bottoms, we should use different items in our breadth toolkit depending on the market environment we're in.
Using the current rally as an example, it makes little sense to give weight to the percent of stocks making new 52-week highs considering most indexes and sectors haven't been able to achieve the same.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?
On the other hand, cyclicals and Value were already hurting coming into the year and then endured serious structural damage during the Q1 crash. If you've been invested in these areas, particularly those groups directly impacted by Covid-19, it might just seem like the "worst of times."
