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Today was another massacre for risk assets.

All 11 sectors got crushed.

VIX ripped past 45.

Copper had its worst day since October 2008.

Nothing was safe out there.

And if you're looking for the main culprit, it's Tech.

Tech has been leading this move lower. 

The warning signs were there for weeks. 

Back in January, I highlighted the implications of Technology and...

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Today was tough.

Equities got smoked across the board.

Transports suffered one of their worst days in history.

Semiconductors and Homebuilders  completed massive tops.

The damage is real.

Defensive rotation has been brewing for weeks, and today was yet another reminder the bears are in full control.

When it comes to the bond market, nothing tells the story better than credit spreads.

A month ago, I flagged the HYG/IEI ratio as one of the ...

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Today was called Liberation Day in the U.S.

It’s funny how there’s always a headline everyone is waiting to react to.

I treat these as nothing more than volatility events.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities continue to struggle. 

The bulls haven’t been able to make a comeback.

In crypto land, it’s just as messy.

If there’s...

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The Technology sector continues to struggle, showing little evidence of a tradable low.

Within it, software plays a crucial role in gauging market strength.

These have been the best stocks to own over the past 15 years.

They’re true secular leaders. They are some of the best businesses.

Basically, as they go, so goes the market.

The Software ETF $IGV is retesting its prior cycle highs from 2021.

This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past, and now I’m watching to see if it flips into support.

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While everyone is paying attention to how bad tech stocks are doing these days, inflation expectations are heating up.

When investors see inflation coming, they shift into TIPS over traditional Treasuries.

Energy is one of the biggest inputs in inflation, and history shows these two tend to move together.

TIPS vs Treasuries ratio just hit its highest level in nearly three years.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil is trading at the lower bounds of its range.

While they might drift apart at times, they always find their way back in sync.

If that happens here, Crude could be...

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In strong, healthy bull markets, high-beta stocks tend to lead.

These are the riskier, more volatile names—mostly Tech and Discretionary. They're the high-flyers that drive markets higher.

On the other hand, low-volatility stocks are more defensive in nature. Think Consumer Staples and Utilities. They're where investors hide when uncertainty rises.

Right now, the SPHB/SPLV ratio is collapsing to fresh 52-week lows.

When risk-on stocks underperform and defensives take the lead, it's a sign of shifting tides.

The bulls are running ...

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After a sharp 10% drawdown, the S&P 500 is attempting a bounce—but let's be real, it's not looking too strong.

The magnitude of this bounce is crucial for determining whether buyers can regain control or if we're just dealing with a temporary retracement.

Typically, retracements fall between the 38% and 62% levels of the original move.

Case in point, SPY just tagged the 38.2% retracement level and immediately got rejected.

The VWAP from the all-time high is sitting right at that same level, acting as a brick wall for buyers.

If the bulls want to regain control, they need to clear the 38% line at 575. Until then, this bounce looks weak, and lower levels remain in play.

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U.S. equities are running into a major confluence of resistance after a weak rebound in recent days.

Until buyers step up and show some serious follow-through, sellers are likely to remain in control.

When looking at the most crucial risk-on groups, two sectors are approaching a resolution that could set the tone for the weeks and months ahead.

First, Large-Cap Technology relative to the S&P 500 is teetering just above the lower bounds of a two-year topping formation.

With Tech representing roughly 30% of the S&P, a breakdown here wouldn't just be a sector-specific issue—it could have broader implications for the entire market.

Adding to the concern, Home Construction $ITB, a critical...

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The energy sector has been the top performer this year, but no one seems to care.

The setup has been building for some time now.

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are holding one of their largest short positions in Crude Oil in over a decade. 

That’s a historic bearish sentiment.

When positioning gets this extreme, the unwind can be just as aggressive. 

Any shift in sentiment or a supply shock could set off a fierce short-covering rally.

The Large-Cap Energy ETF $XLE is probably the best equity vehicle to express a bullish thesis.

XLE has been coiling at a crucial resistance level for the past three years in the context of a 17 year...

US equities are trying to prove themselves after several weeks of selling pressure. Buyers are stepping in and repairing some of the recent damage.

When I think of the group of stocks that will determine whether the bulls regain control or not, I can’t help but think of semiconductors.

They are quite literally the lifeblood of the world economy, carrying significant weight in major indexes across a variety of global markets.

The Equal Weight Semiconductors ETF $XSD is a great way to get a true read on the group.

When we look at it on a relative basis, it’s been carving out a massive top against the S&P 500.

Right now, the ratio sits near its lower bounds—neither breaking down nor catching a bid higher. 

We’re just hanging in there.

How this resolves will shape our positioning in the weeks ahead.

Just landed in Miami Beach for the Future Proof Citywide—one of the best finance conferences out there.

This place is buzzing. People like Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, Tom Lee and Dan are all here. 

Even Michael Saylor showed up this morning!

It’s shaping up to be an incredible week.

I rolled in with my friends Steve and Patrick.

These gatherings are always an opportunity to catch up, exchange ideas, and soak in the energy of the industry’s best.

But back to the markets—after two solid days, U.S. equities are in rebound mode.

Now it’s up to the bulls to prove themselves. 

The strength of this bounce will determine...

Whether you look at Europe breaking out, Gold pushing toward $3,000, or China ripping higher, some of the best opportunities are now found outside the U.S.

This has been the case so far this year.

The Large-Cap China ETF $FXI just hit 18-month highs relative to the S&P 500 $SPY, signaling a potential shift in market leadership.  

A trend reversal seems to be in play in favor of Chinese equities.

No one’s talking about it. Everyone’s ignoring these stocks.

The rules have changed. 

What worked in previous years isn’t necessarily going to cut it today.

In a market like this, uncorrelated trades aren’t just a hedge—they’re a must for diversification and risk management as leadership shifts across regions and sectors.

Steve and Jason went live yesterday, breaking down their strategies and how to navigate environments like this....