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Is the Bull Market Over?

March 28, 2025

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In strong, healthy bull markets, high-beta stocks tend to lead.

These are the riskier, more volatile names—mostly Tech and Discretionary. They're the high-flyers that drive markets higher.

On the other hand, low-volatility stocks are more defensive in nature. Think Consumer Staples and Utilities. They're where investors hide when uncertainty rises.

Right now, the SPHB/SPLV ratio is collapsing to fresh 52-week lows.

When risk-on stocks underperform and defensives take the lead, it's a sign of shifting tides.

The bulls are running out of arguments these days.

Sellers are in charge.

And when you look at the individual level, fewer stocks are in uptrends

Even the market leaders are struggling.

These are characteristics of bear markets, not bulls…

Let me know what you think!

Have a good weekend, everyone!

Alfonso

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