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Alfonso’s Daily Note

Breaking Out of the Block

November 12, 2024

fresh leg higher is currently underway as momentum picks up across the board.

This is especially true for the most speculative growth stocks. Whether you look at ARK funds, cloud computing, fintech or mobile payments, all these groups are reversing their trends and embarking on new uptrends.

When it comes to individual issues, no chart has my attention more than Block Inc $SQ right now.

Just look how clean this rounding bottom is, and it hasn't even broken out yet.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Solana’s Imminent Breakout

November 11, 2024

Bitcoin is surging toward $90,000.

Memecoins are ripping across the board. 

DOGE is up over 100% since the election.

BTC miners are squeezing higher.

Everyone is talking about shitcoins I’ve never heard of.

NFTs are back.

It’s all working in crypto land right now. As it turns out, the ultimate election trade was in digital assets, and not the traditional market.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Small-Caps on Fire

November 7, 2024

With the election behind us, markets seem ready for a year-end rally.

The S&P Small-Cap 600 Index led the way, climbing 6% as it registered its best daily performance since 2020.

As you can see, IJR jumped above its prior cycle highs from 2021, appearing, at least for now, to complete a massive base.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Market Poised for a Year-End Rally

November 5, 2024

Today is Election Day in the U.S., and while the spotlight is on the political arena, this is the perfect time to ignore the noise and focus on what really matters

When it comes to seasonality, some of the best signals that we get are when the market does not follow the historical pattern or seasonal trend.

The chart below shows the S&P 500's average monthly returns during election years.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Biotechs Bounce Off Support

November 1, 2024

One group of stocks I am watching closely right now is biotechs.

Despite the industry's lackluster performance over the previous three months, I think biotechs are brewing up something big.

Here’s the equally-weighted SPDR Biotech ETF $XBI.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Assessing Consumer Strength

October 31, 2024

Consumer Discretionary stocks are a reliable gauge of risk appetite and market health.

Consider these as automobiles, retail, and homebuilding—industries that offer products and services consumers purchase with their discretionary income.

When investors favor these stocks, it indicates a higher level of risk-seeking behavior.

One simple way to assess them is by comparing their performance to the broader market.

The chart below illustrates Large Cap Consumer Discretionary Sector relative to the S&P 500, potentially forming a major 10-year top.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Getting Exposure to Crypto Miners

October 29, 2024

Bitcoin is flirting with a historic breakout, sitting just a few bucks shy of fresh all-time highs.

Everywhere I look, I’m seeing the perfect setup for a new leg higher from crypto.

Risk appetite is heating up across the board, and the strongest tokens are leaving the station. 

We have a wide-variety of vehicles to choose from to play this bullish thesis.

Whether you look at Bitcoin, Dogecoin, or the crypto miners, they are all offering asymmetrical risk vs reward opportunities.

And if we're talking about catch-up trades, Marathon Digital Holdings $MARA is the one to watch.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Crypto’s Next Bull Run

October 28, 2024

Bitcoin is on the verge of resolving higher from a massive consolidation phase.

This isn’t just a short-term consolidation; it’s one of those bases that typically marks the beginning or onset of a fresh bull market. 

These are the periods where we see altcoins multiplying, meme coins surging, and laser eyes all over the internet.

We’ve witnessed this before, and I believe we’re on the cusp of experiencing it again.

It’s also worth noting that these bullish instances have clustered around the holiday season in the past. We’re there now.

It’s all set up so perfectly for another crypto Christmas.

Take a moment to review previous cycles, and you will see just what I mean.

Here’s a zoomed out look at Bitcoin, effectively absorbing all the overhead supply at the upper bounds of the range.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Dollar Rallies, Equities Resist

October 24, 2024

The US Dollar Index $DXY has been on a tear since the turn of the month, bouncing hard off support

Typically, a strong dollar would suggest a defensive tone for risk assets. But not this time.

Despite the dollar's impressive run, equities are holding their ground and showing serious resilience. Just last week, the S&P 500 closed at all-time highs.

And when you dig into the chart, DXY is still stuck in the middle of a range