If you've been paying attention this year, you've likely heard about failed tops. They've been everywhere, teasing traders with bearish setups that never materialize.
Here's how it usually plays out. When support breaks, short-sellers rush to pile on, driving prices lower. But then, the market pulls a fast one. Prices creep back above those broken supports, squeezing shorts and forcing them to cover. Meanwhile, the longs panic, rushing to re-enter.
The latest chatter has been about a potential head-and-shoulders top in Nvidia $NVDA. But let's be real—the bulls are taking back control, and this setup is looking more and more like another false alarm.
Here are three key levels I’m watching in the coming days:
With downside volatility picking up this week, some of you might be wondering if we are on the cusp of a significant market downturn, or is this just another dip that buyers will eventually step into?
It’s worth remembering that every big move starts small, but not every small move turns into something bigger.
That’s where credit spreads come into play—they act as a reliable barometer of market health, offering insights into investor sentiment and risk appetite.
One effective way to measure them is by analyzing the ratio of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG to the Treasury Bond ETF $IEI.
When investors are willing to take on more risk, this ratio typically trends higher. On the other hand, when caution takes over and safety becomes the priority, credit spreads widen, and this ratio declines.
Bears showed up after the FOMC announcement, and the market got sold aggressively with every sector finishing lower on the day.
The S&P 500 plunged 2.95%, its worst drop in over two years. Small-caps, banks, and industrials have now given back all of their post-election gains, joining a growing list of groups to do this.
And the VIX spiked sharply, recording its second-largest single-day move in history.
On days like today, analysts are checking under the hood and assessing market internals to see how significant the damage is.
Here’s one of my go-to charts for this. It shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month lows:
From time to time, I like to play devil's advocate as part of an exercise to identify potential wrenches and better understand the market environment we might be heading into.
One "cheat code" I've picked up over the years is to assess Consumer Staples stocks on a relative basis.
As the ultimate defensive sector, Staples are the safe-haven that investors hide out in when the broader market comes under pressure.
So far this cycle, we haven't seen investors run to these stocks for safety. That said, the ratio is at a critical juncture as we speak.
The chart below highlights Consumer Staples $XLP relative to the S&P 500 $SPY, currently at a major support level marked by the dot-com bubble lows.
December has a magic of its own, doesn't it? Whether it's the holidays, New Year's Eve celebrations, or the irresistible spread of good food, there's something special about this time of year.
It’s a season filled with activity and reflection—and not just in our personal lives.
The stock market also tends to sparkle in December. Historically, this month has been a strong one for equities.
Since 1950, the average cumulative December performance of the S&P 500 paints a picture of steady gains—but the real fireworks usually happen toward the end of the month.