We’ve been talking about this regime shift for months — the slow rotation out of dollar strength and into international stocks.

Today, the chart stopped whispering and started shouting.

The U.S. Dollar Index $DXY just broke a level it held for nearly two years. 

That floor caught every correction since 2023. Until now.

This isn’t just technical analysis. It’s storytelling in price form.
 
King Dollar isn’t king anymore. 

Money is moving. 

Out of safe havens. Into metals, emerging markets, and global equities.

The world isn’t betting on U.S. dominance. It’s betting on rotation. On sticky inflation. On global demand that doesn’t need permission from the Fed.

We’ve positioned for this:

• International markets over U.S. large cap.
...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. Adding new position in XLV.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Capitol Hill’s trading desk has been busy.

With the market moving and disclosure deadlines hitting, we’re seeing a wave of fresh filings — and some of them are worth paying attention to.

Let’s get into them.

Rep. Ashley Moody of Florida bought $100,000 to $250,000 worth of Nvidia Corp $NVDA and Super Micro Computer $SMCI.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 21, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Meanwhile, Sen. Michael McCaul of Texas spread his bets across a handful of notable names.

Some of the standouts include:

• Netflix $NFLX ($15,001 - $50,000);
• Broadcom $AVGO ($15,001 - $50,000);
• Lennar Corp $LEN ($15,001 - $50,000);
• Estee Lauder Cos $EL ($15,001 - $50,000); and
• Microsoft Corporation $MSFT ($15,001 - $50,000).

Last but not least, Victory Capital Management filed a 13G for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings $KNX, disclosing a fresh 5.12% passive stake.

Today's number is... 52

The relative ratio of the S&P 500 Index versus the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector has reached a fresh 52-week low.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Index versus the S&P 500 Consumer Staples.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the relative ratio.

The Takeaway: In healthy bull markets, this ratio typically moves up and to the right on the chart. 

Right now it's moving lower! 

There’s no other way to put it—market participants are positioning themselves defensively… They are not seeking risk.

This defensive rotation has been steadily increasing since late January, and the current landscape is risk-off. 

This is perfectly normal behavior in a weak market.

Let me break down what I am seeing in the chart:

- The ratio has reached a new 52...

U.S. markets opened on a muted note following the long weekend.

Several major indices have slipped below their AVWAP anchored to the recent lows, suggesting a potential retest of those lows may be underway.

Momentum has faded since the brief post-tariff rally sparked by Trump’s announcement, but key support levels remain intact.

Notably, the U.S. indices found a floor at their 2021 highs—a level that continues to act as strong support. If that level breaks, we’ll reassess and adjust our positioning accordingly.

For now, though, it looks like we're entering a period of sideways chop.

Sign up for my free note here.

US equities remain under pressure as the major indexes break below key VWAPs anchored to their lows.

Meanwhile, critical polarity levels are serving as stiff resistance across key sectors and industry groups, capping last week’s bounce.

Whether it’s Semiconductors, Financials, or Software, buyers continue to struggle in reclaiming the broken support levels from earlier this month.

The SPDR Financial Sector $XLF is a textbook example of this theme. 

After briefly pushing back above the neckline of this top, XLF is now getting rejected right around 48.

That means an increasing supply is overwhelming the buyers near those prices.

Sellers are defending critical levels with...

Sign up for my free note here.

First of all, congrats to Goldman Sachs, now the largest component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

The last time a bank headlined the Dow was JP Morgan back in 1998.

That’s pretty cool, but that’s all it is. Just a fun fact.

I would say it’s a sign of the times that a tech stock didn’t fill the shoes of UNH, but the Dow is a bit funky in the sense that it is price-weighted instead of cap-weighted.

Speaking of Papa Dow, let’s talk about what’s next for the major averages following the latest beating for US equities.

All the large-cap indexes violated their VWAPs anchored from the April 7 pivot lows this morning. They all tested these levels and held just last week. 

That’s been the line in the sand for me as far as a retest of the lows is concerned. 

With every day the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow are below these VWAPs, the higher the likelihood we’re headed back to the lows...

Gold miners keep squeezing higher.

Why the short sellers are betting against this uptrend is beyond us.

As the great market analyst, Charlie Munger said:

"If people weren't so often wrong, we wouldn't be so rich."

Thank you, short sellers... We love you!

With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."

We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.

I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.

How could it?

When D.C. can’t get its act together, Wall Street feels it.

I’ve seen it happen more times than I care to count: confusion out of the White House sets off a chain reaction that ripples all the way down to public company earnings—and right into your portfolio.

It starts with poor policy direction or, worse, unclear communication. When nobody really knows what the administration’s long-term plan is (or if there even is one), businesses get stuck. It’s not just annoying for executives—it’s paralyzing. You can’t confidently launch a new product line, expand into new regions, or hire that next wave of talent if you don’t know whether the...

With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."

We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.

I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. Adding new position in TLT.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

We just heard from the largest homebuilder in the United States, D.R. Horton $DHI.

They missed top and bottom-line expectations, but the market reacted positively.

Price rallied 3.16% with a sweet reaction score of 1.73. It was the best earnings reaction on Friday.

Paul Romanowski, the CEO, said the following about the quarter:

 "Although inflation and mortgage interest rates remain elevated, our net sales orders increased 46% for the first quarter and 14% from the prior year quarter as the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still limited, and the demographics supporting housing demand remained favorable."

This is drastically different than the prevailing narrative about the company.

Many on Wall Street have gotten overly bearish on the homebuilding industry, and we think the stocks are sold out over the short term.

Let's talk about what else happened with their reports.

Today's number is... 24.5

The average bulls have fallen to 24.5, the lowest level since the lows of the ‘cost of living crisis’ in October 2022.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The green line in the middle panel shows the average bulls from the Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
• The red line in the bottom panel shows the average bears from the II and the AAII.

The Takeaway: You need bulls in bull markets to buy stocks...That's just math.

And today we're seeing the opposite of that.

The average number of bulls has dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, while the average number of bears has reached its highest level since that same month.

This tells me that optimism in the market has vanished, and the recent volatility has really led to a notable level of pessimism.

With bullish sentiment at such low levels and bearish...

The most notable insider buy today comes from John Hess, director at Goldman Sachs $GS. 

Hess, the CEO of Hess Corp, just filed his first Form 4 since joining Goldman’s board last June.

Goldman gives directors seven years to hit the 5,000-share mark. But Hess isn’t waiting, scooping up 3,904 shares right away.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 17, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Meanwhile, value legend Mario Gabelli just made a move in Standard Motor Products $SMP.

GAMCO Investors filed a 13D boosting its stake from 3.30% to 6.24%.

Finally, Rep. Bruce Westerman of Arkansas continues to build exposure in tech leaders, reporting purchases in the following names:

• Alphabet $GOOGL;
• Amazon $AMZN...

Markets are starting to find their footing after a turbulent stretch.

While the recent bounce in U.S. equities has lacked conviction—leaving some investors uneasy—the global picture tells a different story. Many international markets are showing strong signs of risk appetite, with impressive rebounds underway.

Take Greece, for example. $GREK has already clawed back most of its recent losses, staging a notable recovery.

This kind of bullish follow-through isn’t isolated. We're seeing similar strength across Europe, Latin America, and Oceania.

So while U.S. markets may be hesitating, globally the tone is far more constructive.