Today's number is... 16

My sentiment composite hits a fresh 16-month high. 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The black line in the bottom panel represents my sentiment composite, which includes six different sentiment data points: AAII Bull Bear Spread, II Bull Bear Spread, NAAIM, CBOE Volatility Index, Equity Put Call Ratio 5-Day, and Put Call Ratio 10-Day.

The Takeaway: We are currently seeing more bears than bulls enter the market, as my sentiment composite has reached a new 16-month high. It's remarkable how price action can influence sentiment. Just six months ago, we were experiencing optimism, but now the environment for investors has turned much more pessimistic.

While I acknowledge that this sentiment composite is not perfect, it does provide a useful perspective on what investors are thinking at the moment. 

The way I use sentiment is to determine whether it acts as a potential tailwind...

Today's number is... 50%

More than 50% of stocks listed on the NYSE reached 52-week lows last week.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The red lines in the bottom panel show the percentage of NYSE stocks making 52-Week New Lows.

The Takeaway: The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making new lows expanded to its fourth-highest level over the past 17 years.

That's expansion!

No two ways about it…

Last week, among the 2,862 stocks listed on the NYSE, 1,475 made new 52-week lows…

That's over half of the stocks that are listed on the NYSE exchange! 

These are not levels you see during a bull market.

Moving forward from here, the Bulls must first stop stocks from declining. They have been trying to put something together, but have yet to show any type of back-to-back follow-through just yet. 

Is there...

Today's number is... 42nd

The 10-week moving average of the S&P 500 has fallen below the 40-week moving average for the 42nd time since 1950.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line is the S&P 500 index price.
• The blue line is the 10-week moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The red line is the 40-week moving average of the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray lines highlight when the 10-week moving average crosses below the 40-week moving average - Also known as a Death Cross.
• The table showcases the forward returns of the S&P 500 following a Death Cross.

The Takeaway: The trend is your friend until it bends, and the S&P 500 has been in an uptrend for the past 115 weeks.

But that changed last week when the S&P 500 experienced a Death Cross, which adds to the evidence in favor of Bears.

But what exactly is a Death Cross?

A Death Cross is a technical indicator that occurs when a short-term moving...