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(Commodities Weekly) Brewing Profits in the Futures Market 📈☕

February 1, 2025

We first began hedging our coffee addiction last summer, and boy, has it paid off.

In the five months since we first got long, the caffeine-packed bean has rallied over 50%. 

That's a massive move for a commodity in such a short amount of time!

But we think this one's just getting started and will likely surge higher for the foreseeable future.

Coffee futures are breaking out of a 48-year base: 

In technical analysis kindergarten, you'll learn that "the bigger the base, the higher in space." This is especially true in this case.

We think this long-term parabolic uptrend has the potential to carry the price far higher than we can imagine.

Just look at how cocoa rallied 400% in less than 2-years.

For now, we're targeting 524 and 823 over longer timeframes.

Coffee futures are reaching...
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Whenever they say "Tariffs" Buy More Stocks

February 1, 2025

The strategy this year has been simple.

Whenever you hear them say the word "Tariffs", you call your broker, or open your brokerage account, and you buy more stocks, particularly the Chinese ones.

And who is "they" exactly? 

You know who "they" is. Mostly the noisemakers. People who produce tv shows about "trading", or write "news" articles about financial markets. Permabears looking for their next excuse to make poor decisions...

You know, they!

"They" are the ones we want to fade. 

"We" are the ones who we want to make money.

And so every time they tell you the stock market is going to fall because of something they call "Tariffs", we just buy more stocks betting that stocks will rise in price (because or despite these so called, "Tariffs").

So far this is working. China doubled the returns of the Nasdaq100 in January, with the $FXI returning 4.7% last month. Meanwhile, the Chinese Internet ETF $KWEB rallied almost 7% for January.

As a reminder, we are in the midst of a bullish momentum thrust regime for Chinese stocks, so this shouldn't be surprising.

That momentum thrust, that consistently shows...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 This One Industry is Surprisingly Strong

February 1, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

The big takeaway here is the continued green among a select few industry groups.

Cloud, Broker Dealers, Cyber Security, Software etc. These have all been strong industries over the years, so it's no surprise to see these all inhabiting the green region of this table.

A group among the green candidates which is surprising is the iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF $IYZ. This ETF is still down 50% from its launch in 2000 and still trading at the same levels as it was 22 years ago.

Yet, it's shown impressive strength in recent times. If it can break above its pivot highs near 28, it would point to a continuation of this relative strength.
 

 

 

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Crypto Stocks Poised to Outperform

February 1, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Many of the ETFs that hold crypto-associated stocks continue to rank high on the thematic list.

This niche area could continue to strongly outperform if Bitcoin successfully completes an all time high breakout right here.

If Bitcoin is above 108,000, ETFs such as ARKW, BITQ, and BLOK would be significant beneficiaries.

 

The market action since the FOMC seems to be positive. We broke it down here in a livestream yesterday.

Click here to watch the replay.

Alfonso’s Daily Note

European Financials Hit Its Highest Level Since GFC

January 31, 2025

Another international theme on my radar right now is European banks.

These stocks serve as a strong gauge of global risk appetite. Typically, when they perform well, risk assets are in good shape.

The European Financials Index $E1FIN just closed the month at its highest level since the Great Financial Crisis. 

 

This is particularly important for a lot of international indexes that are heavily-weighted in bank stocks.

If this breakout holds and we see follow-through in the coming weeks, it’s hard to imagine markets or the economy falling apart.

This was a very important topic we discussed yesterday in my presentation, and I think we all agreed.

After all, if these stocks are thriving, how bad could things really be?

Have a good...

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International Hall of Famers (01-31-2025)

January 31, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
The Strazza Letter

I’m Buying DLTR

January 31, 2025

Last week, I joined my friend Michael Batnick on “What Are Your Thoughts.”

The guys over at Ritholtz Wealth and the Compound are the absolute best at what they do. For that reason, doing their shows is always an honor. 

But, it’s also a blast. They make talking markets fun.

We talked about a number of topics from breadth, to short-sellers, and even Nancy Pelosi’s latest trades.

Make sure to check out the replay if you missed it.

Anyways, it is on my mind because Batnick brought up the Dollar Tree chart and I’ve been watching it ever since. We both really like the setup. 

Today, I’m pulling the trigger as it looks to be finishing the right shoulder of this inverse head and...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 1/31/25

January 31, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLV Position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Citadel Advisors Takes a 5.1% Stake in ARVN

January 31, 2025

Today's standout insider activity comes from Citadel Advisors, which filed an initial 13G revealing a 5.10% stake in Arvinas $ARVN.

When firms like Citadel and high-level executives put skin in the game, it pays to take notice.

Meanwhile, in a Form 4 filing, Adobe Inc $ADBE director David Ricks disclosed a purchase of 2,250 shares, a clear sign of confidence from the inside.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 30, 2025:

 

Pzena Investment Management filed an initial 13G for Advance Auto Parts $AAP revealing a stake of 5.50%.

Last but not least, former Visa CEO Alfred Kelly Jr, who joined General Motors’ $GM board of directors in September, bought 12,000 shares of GM.

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Friday, January 31, 2025

January 31, 2025

Today's number is... 12

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks reaching 12-month highs is now at its highest level since November of last year.

Here’s the chart:

 

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks making 12-month highs.

The Takeaway: Breadth continues to improve, although the S&P 500 is currently down 0.49% week-to-date, when you look under the hood, you can see that 12-month highs are expanding and have reached their highest level in over two months.

This is called participation… which is a necessary condition for any bull market, and the current bulls have consistently demonstrated their resilience and strength.

The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks hitting new lows across all time...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

I'm Bullish on China

January 30, 2025

Hanging out in New York City this week has been such a blast. 

Today, I gave an extra-long presentation on the outlook for global equities. We talked it all out in the room for several hours. 

For me, there is one big takeaway that towers over the rest. I think 2025 will be all about China. 

In my presentation, I gave three major reasons why I’m bullish on Chinese equities. Here they are:

  • The initiation thrust from September.
  • The rotation happening within emerging markets.
  • The prevailing bearish sentiment around China.

Then, right in the middle of my presentation, Dan Ives showed up.

It was the cherry on top of what has already been an incredible week.

It was epic.

...
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Junior International Hall of Famers (01-30-2025)

January 30, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...

The Strazza Letter

China Looks So Good Right Now

January 30, 2025

This week was all about mega cap growth.

We kicked off Monday with an AI-themed selloff on the DeepSeek news.

And then over the course of the week, the majority of the magnificent seven names reported earnings. I discussed all the key chart levels and reactions on a livestream yesterday.

Most of them did well, but it’s a mixed bag. 

MSFT got hit. AAPL pulled some gains forward ahead of their report. META is an absolute monster. And the setup in TSLA looks as good as anything after a muted reaction.

This is all great. I own most of these names still, and I’m content with them. I’ve taken profits in some - like META & NVDA, and I’ve added to others - like TSLA & GOOGL, recently. I think they all keep drifting higher. But, they don’t excite me.

US mega tech is no longer a conviction long for me. 

There are...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 1/30/25

January 30, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLC Position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!