Today’s standout transaction is a Form 4 filing by Director Robert Niblock, who made a bold statement with the purchase of 3,000 Lamb Weston Holdings Inc $LW shares, for a cost of $182,818.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 14, 2025:

Meanwhile, Senator John Boozman of Arkansas has also caught our attention, reporting a buy in an amount between $1,000 and $15,000 in Applied Materials $AMAT, a key player in the semiconductor equipment space.

Today's number is... 16

My Fear or Strength Model has been in bearish mode for the last 16 trading days.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The green shading highlights the model is in bullish mode.
  • The red shading highlights the model is in bearish mode.
• The black line in the middle panel is the 10-day average of the NYSE+NASDAQ net new high advance decline line - The “strength” component of the model. The gray shading represents the AD line is rising.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the Volatility index - the “fear” component of the model. The gray shading represents the VIX reading above 28.5.

The Takeaway: My Fear or Strength Model is a tactical framework that has two triggers: 

1. Buy stocks when...

Today is the infamous CPI day, where thousands of traders panic trade a number that's already baked into every model from here to Jupiter.

The real story? Yields are up, and they're throwing hands on my stock portfolio.

CPI day is basically astrology for finance bros. We check the numbers and retrofit narratives to explain why the market did exactly the opposite of what everyone predicted. "Mercury must be in retrograde" has about the same predictive power as Wall Street forecasts right now.

Meanwhile, Powell sits in his office, probably wondering why despite giving the most choreographed monetary policy in history, markets still act surprised every time he does exactly what he said he would do three months ago.

Earning calls now include the mandatory "higher for longer" drinking game, where management try to explain why their growth projections assumed yields would magically return to 2020 levels.

❌ Yields do NOT pass the vibe check.

They're that Andrew Tate fan at a party – nobody invited them, nobody likes them, but somehow they're controlling...

We’ve been talking all about the lack of follow-through in recent weeks.

Fons just wrote an excellent post about failed breakouts. Upside resolutions won’t stick. We’re seeing it all over.

But, there’s more to the story. Breakouts failing to print is just one half of it. 

BreakDOWNs are not sticking, either. 

There is simply no directional bias in either direction. Resolutions are hard to come by. False starts, failed moves, and whipsaws are the norm. Both bulls and bears are getting chopped up and shook around.

I wanted to share a few failed breakdowns that stood out to me today, as this is an important distinction to make in a messy market environment.

Here’s Energy $XLE:

After exploring a breakdown to lows not seen since Q1 of last year, bulls stepped in and reversed it.

XLE shook below the double-top breakdown level for a few sessions before digging in and ripping higher. 

This failed move has...

Whenever the market enters a corrective wave, regardless of the magnitude and time, section rotation comes into play.

While we haven't seen any signs of defensive rotation yet, there's movement beneath the surface worth paying attention to.

The chart of the equal-weighted S&P 500 $RSP relative to the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 $SPY can provide valuable insights. 

It gives us a read on future leadership trends and helps guide how we position ourselves in various vehicles and themes.

The SPY is dominated by mega-cap tech stocks, while RSP, with its equal-weight structure, provides a broader market picture with greater exposure to cyclical sectors like Industrials, Materials, and Financials.

The RSP/SPY ratio is currently testing a key support level that was last seen during...

I like to lean on bellwethers when I’m on the fence about a theme or area of the market.

The term bellwether comes from agrarian times. It was used to describe the sheep that leads the flock. They would put a bell around its neck.

Stock market bellwethers are similar.

To me, a bellwether is a stock that represents a broader group of stocks. These companies usually dominate their industries. Many times, they are secular leaders also.

We’re talking about JP Morgan in the world of financials. Caterpillar for industrials. Amazon and Walmart for the consumer. You get it.

And bellwethers are also vehicles. They are among the many alternatives at our disposal when we choose to express a thesis on something. They are usually some of the most liquid as well.

I use them when I am trying to keep it simple.

I am always thinking about what vehicle is best....

In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss our growing frustrations with the current market environment. Seems neither our bullish bets nor our bearish bets are gaining any traction in this tape.

What can we do with this information?

Watch the show below to see how we arrived at the details for today's trade.

Here's the Play:

I like entering into a $FCX February 30/35/45/50 Iron Condor for an approximately 70-cent net credit. This means I'll be short equal amounts of the February 35 puts and 45 calls, and long the same amount of 30 puts and 50 calls to cap my maximum risk:

As long as $FCX stays inside the range of our short strikes (above $35 per share and below $45 per share), we'll profit in this trade. 

I'll leave a resting order to close this entire spread for a 30 cents net debit to book my profit. This will represent a capture of a little greater than 50% of the premium I collected up front from...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Defensive adjustment to TLT position.
3. Exited XLI position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Cloud computing is one of the biggest megatrends in the world. It's expected to grow by 20% per annum for the foreseeable future.

Rubrik is the leader in cloud data management, an industry they created. 

Like Apple revolutionized the phone, this company has revolutionized cybersecurity.

They've formed strategic alliances with the world's largest cloud companies, such as Microsoft and Amazon.

Moreover, the need for data privacy has never been greater with the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and AI agents.

The most incredible thing about this company is its scale economies. As revenue grows, profit margins expand.

This isn't a secret to the market. It's already frontrunning the opportunity here.

As you can see, the market punished the stock for its first two earnings reports. 

However, something clearly changed late last year... the stock rallied over 20% after its report. 

We love buying stocks with this kind of fundamental and technical momentum.

We're buying $RBRK on strength above the VWAP anchored to the all-time high...

We're back on The Morning Show today LIVE on Stock Market TV!

If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!

Today's guest is Jay Woods, New York Stock Exchange Floor Governor and Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He messaged me that he disagrees with my take on the market so we're about to debate LIVE on the show. You're not going to want to miss this one!

...

The most eye-catching insider move today comes from Darsana Capital Partners, which disclosed a 5.30% stake in EchoStar Corporation $SATS via a 13G filing.

Darsana, a hedge fund known for its sharp plays, seems to have spotted something compelling in this satellite communications player.

With top holdings like HCA Healthcare $HCA, Guidewire Software $GWRE, and Hilton Worldwide $HLT, this is a fund that knows how to pick winners—making its move into SATS worth paying attention to.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 13, 2025:

In a notable 13G filing, Point72 Asset Management disclosed a 5.00% stake in Array Technologies $ARRY, signaling growing investor interest in the company.

Adding to the momentum, CEO Kevin Hostetler made a confident move back in November by purchasing shares of his own...

Here's how things stand on the global equity stage right now.

A development that is front and center is the increasing number of countries breaking down. Pictured below is the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF $VGK which has just failed after retesting this broken support.

The trend is definitively down in Europe. This demands attention.

The next few weeks are the most critical time of year for investors in retail and consumer stocks, as companies report their results from the 2024 holiday season and set expectations for 2025.

Find out which retail stocks are best positioned right now in this free report from long-time retail analyst Jeff Macke. 

Get the report here. 

Today's number is... 28.5

Market sentiment is shifting as the average bears reached 28.5 last week, the highest reading since November 2023.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

• The blue line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The green line in the middle panel shows the average bulls from the Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
• The red line in the bottom panel shows the average bears from the II and the AAII.

The Takeaway: We're beginning to notice more bears entering the market, as the average sentiment among bears has reached its highest level since November 2023. At the same time, optimism appears to be fading, with the average sentiment among bulls hitting the lower end of a year-long range.

Typically, we say that nothing influences sentiment like price movement. However, that's not entirely the case in the current...

If you're bullish on gold and silver mining, it's time to BUY BUY BUY.

Gold was the best-performing asset class in 2024, far outpacing precious metal stocks. 

We wouldn't be surprised to see the mining stocks catchup in 2025. Why?

Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. 

This chart suggests it's time for some mean reversion 👇

Writing to let everyone know that the next ASC Premium Mid-Month Strategy Session will be next Monday January 20 at 8 pm ET. 

The market’s been a hot mess this past month. Failed breakouts are piling up, with prices slipping back into their ranges and falling below key overhead supply zones.

Beneath the surface, the average drawdown for S&P 500 stocks stands at 18.2%, and the weakness is spreading across major sectors and industry group indexes.

It began with lagging areas like metals and mining, which have already rolled over, and now, groups such as banks are breaking below their prior cycle highs.

Let’s break down the choppy action and highlight the struggles across various groups to hold their breakouts.

Let’s start with the Equal-Weight Consumer Discretionary $RSPD:

One of the most important...

Have you or a loved one had back pain before? It's a really crappy problem to have...

That's why Globus Medical has built a robotic navigation system for minimally invasive spine surgery. These procedures are much safer and cheaper than ever before.

As many countries worldwide are struggling with aging demographics, this company stands to benefit from the increase in spine and orthopedic conditions.

It's happening right now. The company doubled its sales last year, and this growth is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

This trend is far from over.

Globus Medical has rallied after its last 4 earnings reports. 

But it's not just the fundamentals that have us excited about this stock.

The stock chart is one of the most attractive in the market.

Here's why: 

• Positive earnings reactions.
• Clear accumulation pattern on the weekly chart, which we can use to define our risk.
• Volatility squeeze on the daily chart. From volatility compression comes expansion (like a spring).

In other words, the bulls...