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[Weekly Gold Rush] Keep An Eye On Newmont 👀📈

December 16, 2024

Newmont Mining has been a bellwether of the gold mining industry for decades, producing thousands of ounces yearly.

It's also the largest component in the gold miner ETFs like GDX and RING. As Ron Burgundy said, "I don't know how to put this, but I'm kind of a big deal."

Over time, the company has been mismanaged and desperately needs a makeover. 

Just look at Newmont Mining flirting with new all-time lows relative to gold:

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 12/16/24

December 16, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Defensive adjustment to XME position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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The Minor Leaguers (12-16-2024)

December 16, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

Hot Corner Insider

Director Durban Discloses a $48 Million TKO Purchase

December 16, 2024

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by TKO Group $TKO director Egon Durban.

Durban revealed a massive purchase of TKO shares for a total value of $48,133,338.

Durban currently serves as CEO of Silver Lake and is the chairman of Endeavor Group, the majority shareholder of TKO.

Stellantis is back with another large investment in Archer Aviation Inc $ACHR.

The automaker just revealed the acquisition of 751,879 shares, equivalent to $5 million.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from December 13, 2024:

 

Control Empresarial de Capitales SA continues to buy PBF Energy $PBF shares, reporting a purchase in the amount of $8,460,732.

Last but not least, there were also insider buys reported from directors of Terex Corporation $TEX, Dillard's $DDS, and Pulse Biosciences $PLSE.

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The Secret Sauce of Insider Trading

December 16, 2024

JC here.

I'm out of town this week. So in lieu of the usual daily note, we've arranged for guest posts written by each of the members of the All Star Charts research team. 

Today's post is from Alfonso De Pablos.

The Secret Sauce of Insider Trading

Hi everyone, Alfonso here.

For those unfamiliar with me, I've been fortunate to work alongside JC and the All Star Charts team for the past three and a half years.

It's been an incredible...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Monday, December 16, 2024

December 16, 2024

Today's number is... 16

We’re now in the homestretch of 2024, and the 16th of December is when seasonality becomes a tailwind for stocks for the remainder of the month.

Here’s the chart:

 

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

This blue line represents the average return for December since 1950 for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: It's perfectly normal for stocks to remain relatively flat during the first half of December. For the first half of December 2024, we only saw a gain of 0.31%.

The recent weak breadth, combined with a rotation into underperforming stocks, is at the top of my list of reasons for the market's current sideways movement.

But today, the 16th of December, we see a switch in the seasonality environment!

For most of 2024, stocks have outperformed seasonal trends, as this year is shaping up to be one of the best election years ever!  So, will this pattern play out this December? Or not? 

The strong performance in the...

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(Freshly Squeezed) Walgreens: The Road To Recovery 🍋📈

December 15, 2024

The best short squeezes happen when sentiment is thoroughly washed out, and it's difficult to picture a scenario where things can get worse.

This is the playbook we've followed for some of our best trades this cycle. Just look at how we nailed the bottoms in Carvana and Coinbase in late 2022. 

We think Walgreens Boots Alliance is setting up for a similar face-ripping rally like those mentioned above, and here's why:

 

Walgreens Boots Alliance was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2018 and replaced General Electric. Less than 6 years later and over 60% lower, the eggheads at S&P Dow Jones Indices decided to give WBA the boot.

This removal coincided with the resolution of a multi-decade distribution pattern and an additional 60% downside in the following months.

Last week, the WSJ reported that...

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The Commodity Trade You Can't Miss

December 15, 2024

It’s day three of the ASC Research Team covering for me while I’m away. 

You've already heard from Sam and Louis. Today, you’re meeting one of our newest team members with a great trade idea for you… 

Show him some love.

JC

Can't Miss This Trade

Hi, I’m Jason, one of the newest traders to join the All Star Charts team, and I’m pumped to be here.

Who in their right mind hires a guy who used to get paid to do backflips for a living?

Oh, right… JC would. Because, let’s face it, everyone needs a gunslinging CTA (Futures Trader) in their life.

My story? Not exactly what you’d call “traditional.” I started as a professional athlete and my great great uncle taught me more about trading and economics than he probably realized.

But life doesn’t always play fair. I took some hits, like rupturing my spleen, battling a bone infection, and going through not one, not two, but FIVE knee surgeries.

Yeah, fun times.

But you know what? Those curveballs became my fuel.

They pushed me to...

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The Goalposts Are in Another Dimension

December 14, 2024

Our series of guest posts written by members of the All Star Charts research team continues... 

Today's note is from our Senior Crypto Analyst. If you're not following what's been going on in crypto, you're missing out...

-JC

The Goalposts Are in Another Dimension

Kia ora!

I'm Louis Sykes, the Senior Crypto Analyst here at All Star Charts. 

When JC casually dropped that he was escaping to Disney World for an entire week, I thought he was pulling my leg.

An entire week?

At Disney World?

As a humble Kiwi where our idea of a theme park is basically a few rides and a half-day commitment, this sounded like some parallel universe of leisure.

"It's not just a park," he explained, his voice brimming with childlike excitement. "The hotel's basically a playground, and there are multiple theme parks surrounding you." Multiple? In New Zealand, we consider a carousel and a mediocre rollercoaster a full day's entertainment. This was like hearing about a theme park multiverse.

Speaking of multiverses that boggle the mind, Bitcoin...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Internet Stocks Come Online

December 13, 2024

The Dow Jones Internet Index Fund $FDN has been on a tear, stair-steeping higher in a nearly vertical line for the past three months.

Price is knocking at the door to new all-time highs as it challenges its prior cycle peak from 2021.

 

However, whether or not this breakout sticks is a big question here.

The lower pane shows that the price is extended from its 200-day moving average.

Every time the price deviated from its long-term average in the recent year, it experienced a corrective wave before continuing its upward path.

So while I’m definitely anticipating some digestion at this resistance zone, I think FDN will eventually get the breakout done and take out this critical level just north of 250.

And when it happens, I want to lean into this leadership group. There is nothing better than a big base resolving into an empty space.

I’m ...

The Strazza Letter

Here's to the Window Dressers

December 13, 2024

Happy Friday everyone

I would like to give a special shoutout to Tesla and congrats to all the bulls.

This week's new all-time highs mark an end to the longest and largest drawdown in company history.

Here’s the chart:

 

And now we can officially say that all of the Magnificent Seven stocks have made fresh all-time highs this cycle (and this year).

How magnificent. But it gets better. 

After somewhat of a drought in the back half of the year, these mega-cap growth names are once again the market leaders.

December has been all about big tech. Here’s a performance chart showing the recent relative strength:

 

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF $MAGS is up over 9%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 $RSP is -3%. That’s a huge performance gap in just two weeks.

The broader market has basically been falling the entire month of December while the largest stocks in the world rip higher.

I think these leaders are being used as ATMs by many investors. Think about it. These stocks are up 100% to 1,000% this...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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(Commodities Weekly) Turning the Bull Loose 🐂📈

December 13, 2024

President-elect Donald Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange this week, and it was reminiscent of the times when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush went to the NYSE years ago.

The infamous Reagan quote, "We're going to turn the bull loose," immediately came to mind.

Considering that, it seems appropriate to talk about bulls today because of their positive correlation to economic growth.

Live cattle futures and bond yields have danced together for decades:

 

As you can see, cattle futures and bond yields are structurally similar but sometimes diverge from one another. In the lower pane, we've included the 200-day rolling correlation to highlight the past (and current) divergences in price.

The biggest problem with correlation analysis is that it doesn't tell us which direction the lines will likely go next.

However, the primary trends have been higher since the 2020 low, and the odds favor that the primary uptrends will eventually reassert themselves.

And we think that's currently underway, with live cattle futures closing this week at the highest price in history.

We've been...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] A Potential Quick Hitter

December 13, 2024

You guys in the chat room have been on fire lately!

I love the camaraderie that has been built among you guys and gals. The ideas, the mutual support, the multiple sets of eyes when a position needs our attention. So great.

You're all ONE! OF! US!

With this in mind, today's trade is in a name that has been discussed a few times of late in the chat. I've been waiting for a tradable support level to reveal itself, and we may be getting it right now, so let's get to it....

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The Hall of Famers (12-13-2024)

December 13, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...