Last night was our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of ASC Research.

This 2-times per month LIVE event is one of the biggest reasons why most of the world's largest financial institutions that you've ever heard of come to Allstarcharts for help making big decisions in the market.

One chart that really stood out to me, especially considering where we are in the cycle, is just how many bears there are among individual investors.

In fact, despite the new all-time highs in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq100 and Russell2000 Indexes, there are...

Today's note is brief.

For the second day in a row, M. Grier Eliasek, President and COO of Prospect Capital Corporation $PSEC, disclosed a significant insider buy – 210,000 shares, totaling $1,010,058.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from December 3, 2024:

These c-suite leaders typically have the most insight into the business's health and prospects, making their investments worth paying extra attention to.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Today's number is... 20%

What happens after a 20% or more up year in the S&P 500?

With only 19 trading days remaining in the year, the S&P 500 has increased by 26.8%. So, it seems that 2024 could finish with a gain of 20% or more.

Here is a table with all of the 20% or more up years, along with the following year's returns:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

The Takeaway: Since 1950, there have been 19 instances where the S&P 500 finished the year with gains of 20% or more.

Of that, the stock market experienced positive returns in 15 out of the 19 years following a 20% or more gain, which is 78.9% of the time. Conversely, it was down in 4 out of those 19 years, representing 21.1% of the time. 

On average, the return following a year with a 20% or more increase was 9.6%. In years that were up years, the average gain was 15.4%. In contrast, during down years, the average loss was recorded at -11.9%.

From the data, it’s more likely that we will see strength...

In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss the signal (if any) being sent from $VIX with a 13 handle, and we cautioned viewers to not just automatically think that a low VIX means the next spike is imminent.

Then, we got into the opportunity that looks most appealing over the next 6-12 months. 

You can watch the full episode here and get the trade details below: 

Apple has been in a year-long range (see video) that appears to have been decisively broken. 

Here's a zoomed-in one-year chart showing the current breakout about the 234-235 range:

While it may feel like a bit of a chase here, I've got a plan to get us positioned small now, with the potential to get systematically larger into a pull back.

If we don't get the full position on, then at least we'll have a small winning position on that took no heat. In other words, a great risk-adjusted return!

Here's the Play:

I like buying $AAPL December 2025 300-strike calls for approximately $7.50. With options volatility relatively cheap in this name, these calls...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in ITB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Today's standout insider transaction is a Form 4 filing from Carlos Slim's Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A., which added another 604,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF to its position.

Meanwhile, the chief operating officer of Prospect Capital Corporation $PSEC stepped up with a $1 million buy, following the CEO’s notable purchase in the last two weeks.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from December 2, 2024:

Newmont Corp $NEM director Harry M. Conger IV recently picked up 9,498 shares of the company’s common stock.

It's always good to see heavyweights in the gold mining space get the attention of excecutives.

Last but not least, Rep. Jonathan Jackson of Illinois...

Today's number is... 12

We have entered December, the 12th month of the year, which happens to be my favorite month! It's summer here in Australia, meaning the days are warm and long. This gives me plenty of time to play golf in the afternoon… and let's not forget that Santa comes to town!

More importantly, stocks tend to perform well in December.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what this chart shows:

• This blue line represents the average return for December since 1950 for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: Yesterday, I shared a note about...

Participation continues to expand across the board as more sectors and industries break out to new cycle highs.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF $XRT is the latest example of this theme.

Here’s a look at XRT completing a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal.

After spending nearly three years in the base-building process, buyers are finally taking control and kicking off a new uptrend.

This is the same bullish pattern we’ve seen so many times in this bull market. We’ve watched these formations take shape and resolve higher one after the next over the past few years. We don’t expect the retail index will be any different from those that came before it. 

The path of least resistance is now higher for XRT.

Retail stocks deserve a spot on our radar, and it’s time to identify the best opportunities in this space.

Alfonso

When we look back and discuss the bull market that began in 2023, what will we say?

I think we will talk about the artificial intelligence revolution and all the technology stocks that benefited most from it.

Maybe we will say this is when Nvidia changed the world and paved the way for so many new innovations and efficiencies.

I think there’s a good chance we’ll be talking about some other companies we haven't even heard of yet.

I don’t know how this story will end, but I do know it will be all about AI.

That should be clear to everyone by now.

And while I may not be the most tech savvy guy, I know the rise of AI has everything to do with advanced computer chips made by Nvidia and others.

As they say, you can’t have a party without the chips.

And the chips have really fueled the current bull market party. SMH rallied more than 3x in about a year and a half, kicking off the new bull market. 

It is still one of the top-performing industry groups this cycle, despite going sideways for the last six months.

...

Since gold futures hit our second target, the entire complex has undergone a corrective wave. 

While the market hasn't given us the all-clear signal yet, the correction seems closer to the end than the beginning.

Demand for gold worldwide continues to increase, and our intermarket analysis suggests the party is just starting for gold bugs across the galaxy. 

Moreover, our COT sentiment indicator is flashing a buy signal:

The US Dollar Index $DXY is sitting at the top end of the range it’s been stuck in for the past two years, and the stage is set for a move lower. 

This has significant implications for a variety of asset classes, including precious metals, equities, and Bitcoin, all of which stand to benefit from a weaker dollar environment.

Back in October, Steve highlighted the divergence in the dollar and the potential for a bounce higher. 

In a matter of days, the dollar ripped in a nearly vertical line toward the upper bounds of its range.

Today, the picture is very different than it was back in October. 

With a tough seasonal period setting in, along with resistance overhead and a bearish momentum divergence, our tactical outlook for the dollar is lower from here.

A few weeks ago, the dollar briefly broke out of its...

The market's mood is for higher prices. It's a Bull Market.

Thus, it's no surprise that a data company providing important information to investors is riding the wave higher.

It pays to buy dips in strong stocks during bull markets, and today, one such opportunity is presenting itself.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XME.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed SMH at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!