Fed rate cut probabilities are shrinking fast. Just a few months ago, the market was pricing in over 100bps between the 2 year and the Fed funds rate. 

Editor’s Note: Click here to download the Hot Corner Insider Baker Bros FREE Special Report.

Small-caps are hitting new all-time highs, joining all those Large-cap and Mid-cap Indexes that have already being doing that for most of the year.

Here is the S&P600 Small-cap Index, officially completing this multi-year base and now beginning its new leg higher:

And so when I think "Small-caps", I think about a ton of Regional Bank stocks and even more Biotechnology stocks.

Together they make up a quarter of the entire Small-cap universe. 

...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Last week, we identified a bullish momentum divergence in the commodities versus stocks ratio at a shelf of former lows.

The evidence suggests we're on the verge of a new era of commodity outperformance.

If we're right, it's time to prepare a list of our favorite setups to seize this opportunity.

We've already covered promising setups in uranium and solar.

Now, let's focus on oil and gas, and here's why:

First, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline have been consolidating above a shelf of former highs for more than two years, and the risk is skewed in favor of the bulls.

Until the bears can resolve these consolidations to the downside, we want to continue betting these levels hold as support.

...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in GLD.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

JC did his mid-monthly conference call this week and offered many ideas, as usual.

But he mentioned one name that stood out to me for three reasons:

1. I'd never heard of it before. 
2. It's in a sector that should do well in a Bull Market. And,
3. It looks like the chart wants to resolve a gap-n-go pattern to higher prices.

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

The most significant insider transaction today is a Form 4 filing by Carl Icahn.

Icahn added 19,174 shares of CVR Partners $UAN, marking an additional investment of $1.3 million. He now owns around $4 million in shares, representing a 37.74% ownership stake in the company.

When heavyweights like Icahn step up, it's always worth paying attention.

Carl Icahn is one of the most successful and influential investors of all time, known for pioneering activist investing.

Notable wins include $2 billion from Netflix, shareholder reforms at Apple, and profits from Texaco and TWA.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 21, 2024:

Pictet Asset Management filed a 13G for Five9 $FIVN revealing an increase in ownership from 6.00% to 9.10%.

In another Form 4, Control Empresarial de Capitales SA bought 250,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF,...

Today's number is... 11

All 11 S&P 500 sectors are back in an uptrend.

I define an uptrend as when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. 

It's a simple and straightforward approach.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

The black line at the bottom represents the number of S&P 500 sectors with a 50-day moving average greater than its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: In a healthy bull market, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages typically move in the same direction, with the 50-day moving average positioned above the 200-day moving average.

This week, the energy sector signaled a golden crossover (when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average). This development has brought all 11 S&P 500 sectors back into uptrend mode. Signaling a continuation of the healthy participation...

I recently sat down with Jason, our commodities and gold expert, to discuss the crypto and gold markets.

You can watch below.

I was actually a customer of All Star Charts Premium research before ever meeting or working with JC.

When I was just finding my way into technical analysis, guys like Brian Shannon, Frank Cappelleri, and JC really resonated with me.

Their charts, their analysis, the way they viewed and discussed markets… They were speaking my language. 

I wanted to do what these guys were doing. End of story.

Without them as my early mentors, I never would have had the faith and courage to make the big career change I did.

Over time, JC and I got to know each other over email. We found out we went to the same college and both liked food, sports, and charts… a lot. 

We met at a CMT symposium later that year. 

I started doing some project work for him while I was still consulting for the Big 4. I begged him to hire me for a while. He finally did, and the rest is history.

I joke with him sometimes that I’m the best investment he ever made.

But seriously, it was a match made in heaven. Just ...

Here's the replay and chartbook from today's livestream. Note that we talk strategy every Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, and I answer questions in the chat room.

Be sure to join us and maximize your return potential.

Today we held our Breakout Multiplier Weekly Strategy Session.

When discussing the deck for today's call, Alfonso and I agreed that the best chart had to be Lovesac $LOVE.

Just look how orderly this rounding bottom breakout is playing out.

We scooped up the 12/20 $35 calls, hoping they’d be in-the-money by the time the theta decay window set in.

With the stock up 7% today, that’s exactly what happened. And it came just in the nick of time, as today marks 29 days until the expiration of our calls.

Momentum is firing up, with the daily RSI-14 getting overbought for the first time since the summer. 

LOVE is also sporting a momentum buy signal on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Talk about trend alignment across multiple...

Energy stocks have been showing some strength over the past few weeks.

Looking at the large-cap Energy Sector ETF $XLE, the price has been coiling around a key shelf of former highs for the past two years.

And when you zoom out on the chart like I’ve done, you’ll notice this base has been forming for the past 16 years!

Buyers have tested this level multiple times, steadily absorbing the overhead supply at the current level.

This kind of action usually comes before a breakout, as bulls build up fuel for the next leg higher.

If XLE breaks out of this massive base, we’re all going to want a lot more energy exposure than we currently have.

As such, I’m getting ready for it and making a wish list of sector leaders.

I think it will happen soon. 100 marks the line in the sand.

Steve and I were discussing...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XOP position to January options.
3. Exited GLD position for a profit.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!