Today's number is... -0.98

The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index has declined to -0.98, the lowest level this market stress index has seen in over 17 years.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The green and red line represent the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (This data set has been inverted). When the line is green, it indicates that financial market stress is lower than normal. Conversely, when the line is red, it indicates that financial market stress is higher than normal.
• The gray line represents the zero line for the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, indicating normal financial market conditions.

The Takeaway: The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index measures financial stress in markets and is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This index is...

It’s been a wild ride for crypto these past few months.

The post-election rally was one for the record books.

But the same is true for the steep and swift drawdowns that have ensued.

The majority of these altcoins are down more than 50% from their December highs. The average cryptocurrency has been decimated. 

It is common for volatility to spike in both directions at inflection points… and I think the entire crypto market is at one now.

The question is what direction are we going in?

When I think of charts like Binance, Ethereum, or Solana… they’ve been rangebound for a long time. These primary trends are sideways.

Here they are shown trading right around the same levels they were at in Q1 of last year:

So it could really go either way. I don’t have a strong opinion on whether they resolve higher or lower from here. But when I see a resolution, I’m going to go with it. 

I’ll be adding on breakouts and I’ll be out if these ranges break down. In fact, I already ...

When it comes to Canada, it's not about tariffs or political headlines making the rounds these days.

The real focus is the Canadian Dollar.

With nearly a 10% weighting in the Dollar Index $DXY, CAD is a crucial piece of the broader currency puzzle.

CAD/USD is pressing against a decade-long support zone, hovering around a key level that triggered strong reversals in 2016 and 2020.

What makes this even more significant is CAD’s close correlation with commodities—especially oil and metals—due to Canada’s heavy exposure to natural resources.

Just look at how the Canadian Dollar has historically traded alongside Crude Oil over the past years.

They look almost identical.

They say history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. If CAD/USD rips higher from here and buyers defend support around 0.68, we can expect energy stocks, metals, and...

Today we're switching up our regular broadcasting and taking our ETF Power Rankings to the stocks of the Dow 30.

The beauty of these rankings is that they can applied to any universe of our choosing - today we're doing the Dow 30.

The big standout to us is how Nvidia $NVDA has transitioned from a deep green to a lighter shade even before it gapped down last Monday.

Instead, traditional names like Walmart, 3M, and IBM have been showing the most strength in recent times.

On the other end of the spectrum are names like Merck, AMGEN, and Nike.

Through these rankings, we can instantly see where to focus our attention. And an area we've been attracted to this week is crypto; over $2B of positions were just liquidated, which has historically been a fantastic buying opportunity.

You can watch our Senior Crypto Analyst, Louis Sykes, outline what he's doing to profit off this recent development...

Suppose you're watching the evening cable news, reading the New York Times (or newspaper of your choice), or paying attention to your echo chamber on the socials. You'd be right to assume all the economies of the world (both friends and enemies of the U.S.) are staring into the abyss and their stock markets are about to be cut in half.

That's cool if you'd like to live that way. I doubt it'll make you any money, though.

You're smarter than that. This is why you're here. We're not affected by headlines. We follow price.

And the relentless bid in Chinese stocks cannot be ignored.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLI.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Every year, without exception, there's always a new headline, a fresh "fear," or just another reason to sell.

Whether it's a new geopolitical tension, economic concerns, or the latest updates on DeepSeek and tariffs, there's always something that seems to provide something to “worry about.”

But here’s the truth. Investors have dealt with headlines like these for decades. It’s nothing new.

Our friend Ryan Detrick put together a great chart that perfectly illustrates this point.

If you get too caught up in the noise, it’s easy to fall into panic and lose sight of the bigger picture.

After all, the market is a discounting mechanism and is likely ahead of any headline.

The key is to block out the distractions and stick with your plan. Risk management, discipline and your rules.

Today's most significant insider transaction comes straight from a Form 4 filing by none other than Warren Buffett.

Uncle Warren just scooped up 2,308,119 shares of Sirius XM Holdings $SIRI—a $54 million bet—pushing Berkshire Hathaway’s stake to 35.35%.

When Buffett adds, it’s worth paying attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 3, 2025:

Meanwhile, hedge funds are making moves in biotech:

• RA Capital Management disclosed a $50 million purchase in 89bio $ETNB. This is a fund known for backing early-stage biotech names before big breakouts. Their track record includes early stakes in Moderna in 2015.
• Paradigm Biocapital Advisors just filed a 13G for Edgewise Therapeutics $EWTX, reporting a 5.00% stake.

Another insider transaction to hit the tape was from Platinum Equity LLC.

A Form 4 filing reveals a $32.5 million purchase...

IDEXX Laboratories $IDXX just rocketed higher after its earnings report, and here's why.

The company is releasing two new products that have the potential to revolutionize the veterinary industry: a cellular analyzer and a cancer detection panel.

The market has high hopes for these products and is beginning to price them into the stock.

But that's not it.

*click the image to enlarge it

The stock also beat its top and bottom-line results this quarter and rallied over 11% with a reaction score of 7.

It was a fantastic report all around.

We tend to see these massive initiation thrusts before the beginning of brand-new primary uptrends.

It's something we talk about all the time at The Beat Report.

In addition to the thrusty momentum, the chart has also shaped up beautifully.

As you can see, the stock had a historic uptrend from 2016 to 2021 and has carved out a textbook wedge in...

Large Cap Growth $IWF remains on the top of the rankings for U.S. indices.

Right beneath it are growth-adjacent ETFs, like the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Mega Caps $MGC, and the S&P 500 $SPY.

The high level trend is growth over value, for now.

IWF is consolidating constructively in the context of a long-term uptrend.

This dip was the biggest liquidation since Bitcoin’s inception. Bigger than the Covid, FTX, and Terra selloffs. Is it time to buy?

Watch the replay of our crypto analyst, Louis Sykes, to get the real story. 

People are scared.

They're getting margin called.

Exchanges forced them out of their positions because they were so recklessly long.

In fact, the crypto market saw over $2B in liquidations these last few days.

Nine times out of ten, these are tremendous periods of opportunity because shortly after the market finds a bottom.

I went live yesterday to discuss what's happened to cause this volatility and more importantly what we're doing about it to take advantage and make money.

You can watch that replay by clicking here.

Today's number is... 2

February, the 2nd month of the year, usually sees stocks perform well in the first half but often declines in the latter half of the month.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

This blue line represents the average return for February since 1950 for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: February, on average, usually starts off positive, but the S&P 500 tends to decline shortly after Valentine's Day. On average, the month finishes relatively flat, with only 48% of days experiencing positive daily gains. 

February is regarded as the second worst month of the year in terms of seasonality. Over the past decade, only 50% of February's have ended on a positive note. When we look at a longer time frame, the trend doesn't improve much; in the last two decades, just 60% of Februarys have finished with overall gains.

This type of choppy market action aligns well with other cycles we track. Typically, ...

Last week, we discussed gold closing at its highest price in years relative to the broader commodities complex.

We don't anticipate this will change anytime soon. 

We think the breadth of the precious metals market is about to change. So far, gold and silver have been the only ones to participate.

But what about platinum and palladium? Will they ever catch up?

We think the answer to that question is a resounding yes, and here's why.