My Fear or Strength Model was in a bearish mode for the last 22 trading days. However, as of Monday, the model has switched to bullish mode.
Here’s the chart:
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Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The green shading highlights the model is in bullish mode.
The red shading highlights the model is in bearish mode.
The black line in the middle panel is the 10-day average of the NYSE+NASDAQ net new high advance-decline line - The model's “strength” component. The gray shading represents the AD line is rising.
The black line in the bottom panel is the Volatility index, which is the model's “fear” component. The gray shading represents the VIX reading above 28.5.
On Monday, the S&P 500 closed down by 1.46%. However, if you look deeper, you will actually see that 351 (69%) S&P 500 stocks advanced while only 152 declined for the day.
Here's the data:
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Let's break down what the table shows:
The first row represents the advancing stocks of the S&P 500, while the second row shows the declining stocks. Each column corresponds to a trading day, starting with the current day on the left and moving to the right through the past ten days.
The Takeaway: The breadth of the S&P 500 has improved over the past two weeks. In 9 of the last 11 trading days, more stocks have advanced than declined. Even on days when the index showed weakness, breadth continued to improve.
But let's take a closer look at yesterday's scenario: When the S&P 500 index drops by over 1% and more than half of the stocks (over 50%) advance.
I found that this scenario hasn't happened too often. In fact, this has only happened twice in...
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Everyone’s here—JC, Sean, Sam, Patrick. These are my people. And every time we come...
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...
News over the weekend seems to have spooked investors this morning, particularly in the tech sector. And the effects are spilling out all across the market.
Are investors being a little overly dramatic here?
The bet we're making is YES.
Today's trade is not in a tech stock, just a boring old bank that has been trending higher for over a year now.
I keep hearing that today’s FOMC announcement and press conference will be a snoozefest.
I couldn’t disagree more.
I think a major development is riding on the market's expectation for future rate cuts.
In recent weeks, the expectations for the next rate cut have moved forward.
During this time, Trump has put pressure on the Fed, and the latest CPI report showed inflation cooling.
But, the reason doesn’t matter as much as the fact that the bond market is buying the story.
The US 10-yr has fallen from about 4.8% to 4.55% in the last two weeks.
More importantly, it’s taking the US Dollar with it.
DXY is the most critical chart in the world right now and it is moving with the bond market and investors’ expectations for interest rates.
If Powell gives any indication that they are moving lower sooner today, it could be the catalyst needed to fail this breakout and send DXY back into its old range.
If the dollar rolls over here or even falls back into a sideways trend, the impact could be massive for risk assets.
And I don’t just mean US equities. I think international stocks stand to win more than...
First up, Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A., the Mexican investment firm known for its deep pockets and strategic plays, just scooped up 100,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF.
That’s a $2.9 million bet on the refiner, and it raises eyebrows as energy stocks continue their promising climb into the first weeks of 2025.
Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 24, 2025:
Meanwhile, John C. Malone has added to his stake in The Liberty Braves Group $BATRA.
Malone grabbed 33,600 shares, reinforcing his commitment to the company behind the Atlanta Braves franchise.
My Developed Markets Advance-Decline line, which consists of 22 developed markets, just closed at an all-time high.
Here’s the chart:
(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)
Let's break down what it shows:
The black line represents the Developed Markets Advance-Decline line, which includes the following countries' ETFs: Canada, USA, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, and Singapore.
The Takeaway: I like using this AD Line as it is a valuable indicator for assessing overall market strength. It measures the number of developed markets participating or not, providing us with insights into the health of the market move. So, when more markets are advancing than declining, the AD Line rises; in contrast, it falls when there are more declining markets than advancing ones.
Currently, this AD line is at its highest level ever, which means that the strong...
By our rankings, ARGT has ranked the best global ETF every single week for the last three months.
That's an incredibly impressive record.
The message here is simple; there are strong areas of outperformance outside the United States.
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Notice all the same industry groups constantly green:
Broker Dealers & Exchanges
Cloud
Internet
Cyber Security
Software
Regional Banks
This is what a persistently green trend on our power rankings looks like.
Let the winners ride.
Broker Dealers & Exchanges $IAI is up +45% since 2024!
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