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Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/25/24

November 25, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLI position. 
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Update to FXI Trade Plan

November 25, 2024

The price of $FXI is going in the wrong direction. And as we know, only price pays. Price is truth.

Due to two previous "covered call" premium sales against our long January 2026 35-strike calls and more than one year until our long calls expire, I'm going to get creative with our position to keep the dream alive. I think we can afford to be patient.

I'm confident in doing so because ending the campaign here would only result in a small loss. So there's no panic.

Here's a visual of where we are now:

 

The purple circle is where I purchased both my long January 2026 calls and sold Dec 35 calls against it. The green circle shows where I rolled my Dec 35 calls to Feb 35 calls for a credit. At the moment, my net cost (max risk) for these Jan 2026 $35 calls is $2.05. This is derived by subtracting the credits for the two short call sales from the cost of the long calls.

I've still got a lot of time until January 2026, and while the chart of FXI is currently disagreeing with me, I can make time my friend. Time heals all wounds, right? We'll see.

Here's the Play:

I like rolling the...

All Star Charts Premium

Dow Theory Confirmation

November 25, 2024

If you're not making a lot of money in this Bull Market then you're doing it wrong.

When it's money making time, the idea is to make as much money as possible to be able to withstand those periods where it's "money keeping" time. 

Tuesday @ 4PM ET I will be hosting a LIVE event with Steve Strazza to walk through the Breakout Multiplier Strategy that everyone is talking about. I've never seen something work this well, this consistently in my entire career. 

You're not going to want to miss this....

Hot Corner Insider

Director Angelakis Buys 3.5 Million CLVT Shares

November 25, 2024

Director Michael J. Angelakis, CEO of the investment company Atairos Group, and former CFO of Comcast, has acquired 3,465,000 shares of Clarivate Plc $CLVT.

We always take note when executives with a CFO background make significant insider purchases, as their financial insight provides us some of the best Hot Corner buy signals.  

The co-founder and vice chairman of Oscar Health $OSCR reported a purchase of $3.1 million of his own stock in a recent Form 4.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 22, 2024:

 

RA Capital Management filed a 13G for Arcellx Inc $ACLX revealing an initial stake of 5.20%.

RA Capital's expertise is particularly recognized in the biotech space, where they help companies move from concept to commercialization, making them influential in driving value in the life sciences industry.

The firm's top holdings are Ascendis Pharma $ASND, Vaxcyte $PCVX...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Monday, November 25, 2024

November 25, 2024

Today's number is... 0.8

The bears have fumbled the ball once again.

The most recent flare-up of new lows we experienced from the other week has already disappeared, and it appears that they are retreating into hibernation once again, as only 0.8% of S&P 500 stocks are at 1-month lows.

Here’s the chart:

 

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

The black line at the bottom represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at 1-month lows.

The Takeaway: Over the past two years, we have seen deterioration in the new lows list characterized by lower highs, while the S&P 500 index keeps posting higher highs and higher lows in price. This is exactly what you expect to see during a bull market.

With only 0.8% of S&P 500 stocks hitting 1-month lows, it is virtually impossible to enter a bear market or experience a significant correction without the presence of new...

All Star Charts Premium

Here come the Biotech stocks!

November 23, 2024

Editor’s Note: Click here to download the Hot Corner Insider Baker Bros FREE Special Report.

Small-caps are hitting new all-time highs, joining all those Large-cap and Mid-cap Indexes that have already being doing that for most of the year.

Here is the S&P600 Small-cap Index, officially completing this multi-year base and now beginning its new leg higher:

 

And so when I think "Small-caps", I think about a ton of Regional Bank stocks and even more Biotechnology stocks.

Together they make up a quarter of the entire Small-cap universe. 

...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
All Star Charts Premium

(Commodities Weekly) Energy Is Coming Out of Hibernation

November 22, 2024

Last week, we identified a bullish momentum divergence in the commodities versus stocks ratio at a shelf of former lows.

The evidence suggests we're on the verge of a new era of commodity outperformance.

If we're right, it's time to prepare a list of our favorite setups to seize this opportunity.

We've already covered promising setups in uranium and solar.

Now, let's focus on oil and gas, and here's why:

 

First, crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline have been consolidating above a shelf of former highs for more than two years, and the risk is skewed in favor of the bulls.

Until the bears can resolve these consolidations to the downside, we want to continue betting these levels hold as support.

...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/22/24

November 22, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in GLD.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Charts Premium

International Hall of Famers (11-22-2024)

November 22, 2024

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
Hot Corner Insider

Carl Icahn Adds to His UAN Stake

November 22, 2024

The most significant insider transaction today is a Form 4 filing by Carl Icahn.

Icahn added 19,174 shares of CVR Partners $UAN, marking an additional investment of $1.3 million. He now owns around $4 million in shares, representing a 37.74% ownership stake in the company.

When heavyweights like Icahn step up, it's always worth paying attention.

Carl Icahn is one of the most successful and influential investors of all time, known for pioneering activist investing.

Notable wins include $2 billion from Netflix, shareholder reforms at Apple, and profits from Texaco and TWA.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 21, 2024:

 

Pictet Asset Management filed a 13G for Five9 $FIVN revealing an increase in ownership from 6.00% to 9.10%.

In another Form 4, Control Empresarial de Capitales SA bought 250,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF,...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Friday, November 22, 2024

November 22, 2024

Today's number is... 11

All 11 S&P 500 sectors are back in an uptrend.

I define an uptrend as when the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average. 

It's a simple and straightforward approach.

Here’s the chart:

 

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

The black line at the bottom represents the number of S&P 500 sectors with a 50-day moving average greater than its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: In a healthy bull market, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages typically move in the same direction, with the 50-day moving average positioned above the 200-day moving average.

This week, the energy sector signaled a golden crossover (when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average). This development has brought all 11 S&P 500 sectors back into uptrend mode. Signaling a continuation of the healthy participation...

All Star Charts Crypto

📊 Bitcoin vs Gold

November 21, 2024

I recently sat down with Jason, our commodities and gold expert, to discuss the crypto and gold markets.

You can watch below.

The Strazza Letter

JC-Steve Origin Story

November 21, 2024

I was actually a customer of All Star Charts Premium research before ever meeting or working with JC.

When I was just finding my way into technical analysis, guys like Brian Shannon, Frank Cappelleri, and JC really resonated with me.

Their charts, their analysis, the way they viewed and discussed markets… They were speaking my language. 

I wanted to do what these guys were doing. End of story.

Without them as my early mentors, I never would have had the faith and courage to make the big career change I did.

Over time, JC and I got to know each other over email. We found out we went to the same college and both liked food, sports, and charts… a lot. 

We met at a CMT symposium later that year. 

I started doing some project work for him while I was still consulting for the Big 4. I begged him to hire me for a while. He finally did, and the rest is history.

I joke with him sometimes that I’m the best investment he ever made.

But seriously, it was a match made in heaven. Just ...

Breakout Multiplier

LOVE Calls Hit the Money

November 21, 2024

Today we held our Breakout Multiplier Weekly Strategy Session.

When discussing the deck for today's call, Alfonso and I agreed that the best chart had to be Lovesac $LOVE.

Just look how orderly this rounding bottom breakout is playing out.

We scooped up the 12/20 $35 calls, hoping they’d be in-the-money by the time the theta decay window set in.

With the stock up 7% today, that’s exactly what happened. And it came just in the nick of time, as today marks 29 days until the expiration of our calls.

 

Momentum is firing up, with the daily RSI-14 getting overbought for the first time since the summer. 

LOVE is also sporting a momentum buy signal on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Talk about trend alignment across multiple...