Today's number is... 1.60%

The S&P 500 under the hood is bifurcated!

The average stock in the S&P 500 is only 1.60% above its 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The blue bars represent the percentage from the 200-day moving average of each S&P 500 stock.

The yellow bar indicates the average S&P 500 stock percentage from the 200-day moving average.

The red bar represents the S&P 500 index percentage from its 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: The 200-day moving average is a great indicator for determining the stock's longer-term trend.

Simply put, an uptrend is when the price is above the 200-day moving average, while a downtrend is when it is below.

Currently, 266 stocks, or 53%, are trading above their 200-day average, while 234 stocks, or 47%, have dropped below it.

Market leadership is becoming increasingly narrower. 

The data supports...

In a healthy bull market, you want to see offensive groups performing well. When these groups lack strength, it often signals problems ahead for the broader market.

Homebuilders, one of the most cyclical subsectors within the Consumer Discretionary space, come to mind when discussing this theme. 

They are a reliable gauge of global growth and investor risk appetite.

Historically, when these stocks trend higher, it reflects an environment conducive to risk-seeking behavior. On the flip side, sustained selling pressure on them tends to indicate a more cautious market stance.

When we overlay the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF $XHB with the S&P 500 $SPY, they typically follow the same path.

Homebuilders often act as a leading indicator for the broader market. The chart highlights multiple...

Nicotine pouches are so trendy right now. 

Tucker Carlson even has his own brand of them. Here's a video (that we found rather humorous) of him explaining why he started the business venture.

The cowboys aren't chewing tobacco anymore, and it's no longer socially acceptable for saloons to have spittoons. 

It's all about being discrete now. Instead of smoking cigarettes, folks are vaping, and instead of chewing tobacco, folks are using nicotine pouches.

Philip Morris is completely dominating this brand-new market.

In 2022, they acquired Swedish Match, the inventor of ZYN, for $16B. This was one of the iconic company's largest acquisitions ever.

Last quarter, they sold nearly 150M cans of ZYN in the U.S., which is about 73% of the total market. 

We think this trend is just beginning.

Philip Morris has rallied after 3 consecutive earnings events. 

What's more, the price is holding above a shelf of former highs from 2017.

In other words, the risk versus...

Today's trade offers a nice opportunity to add some diversification to my mostly long book.

It's no secret that there has been a lot of weakness that has been masked by the performance of the broader indexes. 

We've got a well-diversified business that is showing signs of completing a pretty large top, so it might offer us some alpha on the downside if weakness spreads.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Defensive adjustment to ITB position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Today's standout insider transaction comes through a 13G filing by AllianceBernstein L.P., a global investment management firm overseeing more than $700 billion in assets.

AllianceBernstein increased its passive stake in Trex Company Inc $TREX from 6.50% to 10.10%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 7, 2025:

This significant uptick in ownership signals strong confidence in the company's future prospects.

We're back today on The Morning Show only on Stock Market TV. We're live every weekday from 8:30AM - 10AM ET.

Do you want to be prepared for the day ahead? Do you want to know what's driving these market moves? Come hang out with us today as we sit down with special Guest Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group.

...

Today's number is... 100%

Our US Dollar Long Term Percent Bullish breadth reading just reached 100%.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the US Dollar index.

The black line in the bottom panel represents US Dollar Long Term Percent Bullish breadth reading, which includes 15 key currency pairs.

To calculate the US Dollar Long Term Percent Bullish, we use two criteria:

1. The closing price of the currency pair must be above its 200-day moving average.
2. The direction of the 200-day moving average must be rising.

After assessing these criteria for all 15 currencies, we combine the results to obtain a percentage figure.

The Takeaway: The US dollar has been ripping higher over the past quarter, and when we look beneath the surface, we see healthy breadth readings and confirmation of strength as our US Dollar Long Term Percent Bullish breadth reading just reached 100...

The big standout here is how growth is persistently green while value has been red.

Until this changes, it's difficult to be overweight value relative to growth.

Tracking the ratio between the Large Cap Growth ETF $IWF and Large Cap Value $IWD, it has just broken to new all time highs. This suggests growth could be setting up for further outperformance. 

We've been talking about the relentless strength out of Argentina $ARGT for months now. But an underdog on the global ETF stage right now is the United Arab Emirates $UAE.

On our Power Rankings score, it's actually stronger than the S&P 500 right now.

The big story here is energy. If crude oil begins working higher, as it's done over the last month, this is a significant tailwind for this ETF.

Here's one thing we know for a fact about the market:

In order to have a bear market, or a correction of any kind, you need the prices of stocks to be falling.

Fact. 

Without the prices of stocks falling, you cannot possibly have a bear market, or any kind of correction at all.

That's just how math works. 

So if one would take the time to count how many stocks are actually going down in price, one would have a better understanding as to whether or not stocks are correcting.

See how that works?

And while the list of new 52-week lows is still nonexistent, that doesn't mean stock prices aren't falling. So we want to look at shorter-term time horizons to see if we're seeing an increase in the number of stocks falling in price.

Currently, we are not seeing any expansion at all in the number of stocks whose prices are falling. Here are Large-caps, Mid-caps and Small-caps all within the same range of new lows that they've been in throughout this bull market:

We'll know if we're in a correction. You'll be able to just count and see for yourself.

And you'll see the list of new 1-month lows expanding, new 3-month...

It’s hard to ignore the strength coming out of Argentina this past year.

The MSCI Argentina ETF $ARGT has been an absolute beast, finishing 2024 as the best-performing country ETF, with a jaw-dropping gain of 63.50%.

The series of higher highs and higher lows remains firmly intact, and it doesn’t look like the trend will change anytime soon.

Javier Milei’s ascent to the presidency in November 2023 has been a key driving force behind this recent surge.

His free-market policies, emphasis on entrepreneurship, and commitment to economic growth have been a game-changer, attracting investor attention from every corner of the globe.

Investors with exposure to Argentina have been richly rewarded by the market as ARGT...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLC.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!