If Semiconductors actually completed this massive top relative to the S&P500 then bull market cancelled.

Period.

For me, it was that simple. This is one of the largest and most important industry groups in America, and the rest of the world for that matter.

Losing Semi's would be like losing one of your legs. You wouldn't be able to walk anymore. 

This was a major topic of conversation last night during our first LIVE Conference Call of the year. You cannot miss this one. Click Here to access the replay,...

In a recently filed Periodic Transaction Report, Senator Shelley Capito of West Virginia disclosed stock purchases in General Electric Company $GE and Broadcom Inc $AVGO.

The transactions, each valued between $1,000 and $15,000, signal potential confidence in these market-leading companies.

Last month, Broadcom had its best single day rally in history, breaking to new all time highs following earnings.

Price is currently consolidating in a tight pattern, digesting its gains.

The path of least resistance is clearly higher and we believe it is just a matter of time before AVGO continues its ascent.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 6, 2025:

Last but not least, Pleasant Lake Partners LLC filed a Form 4 for Tile Shop Holdings $TTSH revealing a purchase of $822,056.

Today's number is... 4

The S&P 500 index is holding up well as it is only 1.89% below its all-time high; however, when we take a closer look at the individual stocks, we can see that they have begun to dip below 4 key timeframe highs that we have identified as important.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's first break down what the chart shows:

The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the S&P 500 index.

In the bottom panel:

In black is the % of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 2018 highest high

In blue is the % of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 2021 highest high

In gray is the % of S&P 500 stocks that are above their December 2023 highest high

In red is the % of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 2024 Q1 highest high

The Takeaway: This chart is a great way to visualize the current market environment and track what's happening beneath the surface.

What...

I’ve been incredibly lucky to learn first-hand from some of the top traders and technicians. 

I’ve gained a deep understanding of VWAP and how to anchor it from my mentor and friend, Brian Shannon. 

He created the anchored volume weighted average price as an indicator and is the VWAP master as far as I’m concerned.

It’s my single favorite tool. I’m using it all day every day. 

In order to use VWAP to gain an edge in the market, you have to know where to anchor it. It’s the most important part. 

I always have mine anchored to January 1st. 

I also anchor them at key highs and lows. For example, most of my charts have VWAPs from the 2022 bear market lows as well as the 2021 bull market highs. 

I anchor them from big earnings reactions and news events. These are always good. 

People keep telling us, "2024 was the year of artificial intelligence." 

That's bull shit, and we have the data to prove it. Last year was a year for the gold bugs. 🥳

Here's an overview of how each asset class performed in 2024:

Quantum computing stocks have been on an absolute tear, making this group one to watch closely as we head into 2025.

These companies are pushing the boundaries of what’s possible, solving problems and processing workflows traditional computers never could.

From AI and cybersecurity to drug discovery, quantum computing has emerged as a critical driver of innovation. And with plenty of public companies operating in the space, quantum stocks offer an exciting investment opportunity.

IonQ $IONQ stands out as a leader in this revolution, fueling a surge of investor enthusiasm.

I remember when Sam highlighted it in our Freshly Squeezed report back in March last year.

What started as a promising pick has since turned into a major market leader.

The stock has been...

Do you remember when BlackBerry released the 7200 series in 2003?

It was a massive moment in the history of technology despite looking like a modern handheld calculator.

The commercial launch of this device greatly benefited shareholders. $BB stock rallied over 10,000% from the 2002 low to the 2008 peak.

In Q4 2003, the company reported blowout earnings, which caused the stock to have its best earnings reaction ever.

It was reminiscent of when Nvidia added $200B in market cap after its historic Q2 2023 earnings event.

Unfortunately (for $BB shareholders), they dropped the ball, and Apple blew BlackBerry out of the water with the launch of the iPhone.

Since then, it has completely transformed into a company that's hard to recognize if you formally knew it as "the phone company" decades ago.

BlackBerry is a software company now.

The most significant opportunity lies in its QNX platform, a real-time operating system used in over 255 million vehicles globally.

Auto manufacturing...

Today's trade is in a $1B company that provides automatic identification solutions to commercial and government customers. Being that this company participates in the Software & IT sector, I expect it to perform well in a market environment where semiconductors are leading the way.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in GLD.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended January 3, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s...

There's no way the S&P500 can rally again this year, right?

We just had 2 consecutive years of historic returns. The Nasdaq literally doubled since the end of 2022. 

Total Crypto Market-cap is now at $3.4 Trillion. It was only $750 Billion 2 years ago. You do the math!

The S&P500 was up 24% in 2023 and then up another 23% in 2024. 

How could things possibly get any better than this? I mean with the Fed, and the Inflation, and the Trump, and the Recession and the imminent crisis they all keep telling us about.

How could stocks possibly go up again in 2025? After the historic returns we just saw in back-to-back years?

Well, my friend...

Today's number is... Q1

After two weeks of enjoying the Australian summer at the beach house, I've returned to my desk! I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas and celebrated the start of the new year with family and friends!

Let's start the year off with some cycle data… 

Stocks historically do not perform well in the first quarter of a post-election year.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's first break down what the chart shows:

This blue line represents the average return in post-election years since 1950 for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: The stock market rewarded bulls over the past 12 months, as 2024 was one of the best election years ever!  

However, I began to notice a...

Uncle Warren is at it again, increasing Berkshire Hathaway's stake in VeriSign Inc $VRSN.

The latest filing reveals a purchase of 20,044 shares, bringing Berkshire's ownership to 13.83%.

VRSN is consolidating constructively just below a key resistance level:

The critical threshold is at 255. As long as the stock remains below this overhead supply, it’s difficult to find an attractive setup for the long side.

However, a decisive breakout above this area would change the narrative, presenting a compelling opportunity to get involved.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 3, 2024:

Meanwhile, Massachusetts Financial Services Company disclosed a 13G filing for TransUnion $TRU, increasing its stake from 9.75% to 10.00%.

Closing out the year, tech stocks are stealing the spotlight. Despite showing a bit of weakness this December, the big picture is clear: the bullish trends are undeniable.

Meanwhile, many parts of the market are settling into trading ranges, while others are dipping back to test key support zones.

Take Retail ($XRT), for example. It’s gone from red to green over the past month, making an impressive transition.

What’s particularly intriguing is the chart—it’s revisiting a major breakout level.

This is a natural spot for the group to gather momentum and start climbing higher.

Heading into 2025, a key theme that stands out is speculative growth.

The Ark Innovation ETF $ARKK has completed a full transition from red to dark green, indicative of strong relative strength.

In the below chart, we've stretched the x-axis to bring awareness to the scope of price discovery that could unfold in 2025.

It’s easy to focus on the leaders, but let’s shift our attention to the bottom of the rankings — energy.

This sector has been consistently lagging, showing red for some time. That’s the beauty of these Power Rankings; they give us an early warning when trends start to shift.

Energy hasn’t turned the corner just yet.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil is sitting at a critical support level and remains tightly coiled.

If we see an upward breakout in Crude, it wouldn’t be surprising to watch Energy transition from red to green.