You're overthinking the whole dollar and oil connection. 

As a trader, I love finding intermarket relationships to guide the way I look at markets. While those links matter, I have to remember that they aren’t set in stone. They change as the world changes. 

War and energy production can really shake up these correlations.

In early 2022, the correlation between the dollar and oil hit a 20-year high.

That year, the Russia-Ukraine war had just begun, and there was a rush into the US dollar. I like to call the dollar a "panic currency" because when things get tough, people flock to it for safety. 

In 2022, the war caused a huge spike in energy prices, and the dollar rose along with it.

Right now, with so much uncertainty in the world—between wars and an unclear future with the election right around the corner—it makes sense that the dollar would move alongside oil. 

But it won’t last forever.

Notice the strong and consistent negative correlation from 2002 until recently.

And then notice how it pinged...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in ITB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited  XLB , XLC, SMH, & XLP at profit targets!
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Perhaps this is just my own personal Waterloo, but there seems to be history of market turbulence whenever I travel and am away from my main trading station.

Next week will be a travel week for me. I'll be attending Stocktoberfest in Coronado Island, back home for one day in the middle of the week, then back on the road heading to Seattle. And this being October, when "surprises" seem most often to occur, I'm a little on edge about my mostly long-leaning portfolio.

So today's trade is a simple bearish bet in a weak name that may offer some cushion if things do get slippery next week.

Peloton Interactive $PTON is up over 10% this morning and exploding higher from its range!

Our 11/15 $7 calls are surging with it. They are currently trading for over $0.50, which is a triple from where we got in.

This is the perfect moment to execute our strategy—sell half the position, lock in some well-earned gains, and ride the rest into earnings risk-free.

This pre-earnings trade is coming together as planned, and the best part? The stock is just breaking out, so we think there’s plenty left in the tank.

If we break and hold above VWAP this one should keep running for us and be a monster winner. It’s already a multi-bagger.

PTON earnings are October 31st. I’ll...

This is why we can't have nice things...

Did you notice that the journalists are catching on to these trends that have been in place for so long?

And not just any journalists. The most reliable contrarian indicators in the history of financial publications are telling you that the U.S. is the Envy of the World and they expect it to keep going - even after a decade and a half of this...

Here's the exact quote:

"The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust. Expect that to continue" - The Economist

So cringe.

Those of you who have been following along know how much money we've all made by using this publication as a contrarian indicator.

Not only are they journalists - which are a great fade to begin with.

But they are journalists parading around as economists.

Double whammy. 

We've discussed this at length over the years. Here's...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in IWM.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XHB and EEM at Profit Targets.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider activity today comes from Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A., the Mexican investment firm led by Carlos Slim.

According to a new Form 4 filing, the firm acquired 1,002,000 shares in PBF Energy $PBF, valued at $31.8 million.

This is Control Empresarial’s fourth major purchase in the last month, totaling nearly $55.9 million.

With these buys, Control Empresarial now owns around 20% of PBF and is the largest shareholder in the company, holding about as many shares as Blackrock and Vanguard combined.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from October 17, 2024:

For the past several years, China has been uninvestable.

Then we got one of the most epic rallies in China’s stock market history…

And then we were so extended that it still felt uninvestable. But for a very different reason.

Earlier this month on the morning show, Spencer asked: “how do you even buy these stocks here?”

I understood his frustration. Sometimes, the best trends are the hardest to get into.

If you took a shot and bought China earlier this month, you’re already in a significant drawdown. 

If you have the right timeframe, I think you’ll be fine, but you never want to chase in these situations. After a momentum thrust, always expect a little backing and filling, or corrective action. And be prepared to pounce on it.

It...

Last week, I wrote to you about how winning is hard -- because holding out for large wins is easily the hardest thing we attempt to do as traders. Sitting through pullbacks against the direction of our trade is so. damn. hard.

I highlighted a trade we currently have on $CM. It was pulling back and testing the mettle of anyone long -- including me. Here's where it was at the time:

You can see how one might have been nervous about losing their large open gains?

I argued this is exactly what must be done if we want to have a chance at earning the outsized gains that are absolutely essential to long term success.

Well, we haven't won anything yet. But just one week later, our patience is being rewarded: 

In today's weekly Options Jam Session (click the video at the top), we talk about this $CM trade, what our next steps are with it, as well as review some other current option positions that need some updated stops as we ride favorable trends.

Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts

Here's the replay and chartbook from today's stream.

Note that we do these videos live every Thursday at 11 a.m. ET, and I answer questions in the chat room. Be sure to join us and maximize your return potential.  

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLV.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Today’s biggest insider move comes straight from John Edward Adent, CEO of Neogen Corp $NEOG. 

According to a fresh Form 4 filing, Adent just scooped up 14,500 NEOG shares, throwing down $200,000 in the process.

No one understands Neogen better than its CEO. And this wasn’t a pre-scheduled transaction or an option exercise – this was an open-market purchase.

CEOs don’t just throw six figures into their own stock for fun. They do it when they see real value. Adent sees upside in NEOG, and he’s putting his own cash on the line to back it up.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time for us to jump in. As technicians, we only want to follow this insider data when the trend confirms it 

That’s not the case with $NEOG right now, as the stock is still in a downtrend. We will add it to our watchlist and be ready when the setup improves.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from...