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Breakout Multiplier

We’re Bullish Bicycles

September 26, 2024
This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. 

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Following a nasty drawdown from the all-time highs made back in 2021, Peloton Interactive $PTON is coiling at the upper bounds of a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

An upside resolution from the past month's trading range will confirm a new primary uptrend for this battered growth stock.

Here’s the chart:

 

Peloton is sporting a 20% short interest and 4x days to cover ratio, which means if we get the move we’re looking for, it should be a big one.

What we’re doing here is simple. Let’s walk through it.

The worst stocks, the cycle laggards, the non-participators, the most-heavily shorted names… they are all working out here...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/26/24

September 26, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XME position.
  3. No positions were exited since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Liberty 77 Reports a $3.6 Million LGF Purchase

September 26, 2024

The most notable insider activity on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Liberty 77 Fund L.P.

The private equity firm reported a purchase of $3.6 million in Lions Gate Entertainment Corp $LGF.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 25, 2024:

 
All Star Charts Premium

Junior International Hall of Famers (09-26-2024)

September 25, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing month.

Then we sorted...

All Star Options

[Options] Seeking Risk

September 25, 2024

During today's internal Analyst meeting, JC said: "We should be doing more in China."

It's not something I often agree with. But today I do.

In fact, I've already got a couple positions on in stocks with China exposure, and I'm adding some more today.

And look at this performance of the China Large Cap ETF $FXI:

 

 There's nothing quite like a huge gap up to change investors' perceptions and sentiment. I think right now, investors are warming up to the idea that the train may have already left the station to get positioned for a China bull market.

And the catch-up trade may be massive.

In today's Options Jam Session, I discuss this, as well as my thoughts on what's in store for the stock market in the coming 2-4 months.

 

 

Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts

All Star Options

[Options Premium] You Know It's a Bull Market When...

September 25, 2024

"We should be doing more in China." ~ JC Parets during this morning's internal Analyst meeting.

This, coupled with my feeling that we need to be more aggressive in the stock market right now as the potential profits on the upside could be quite meaningful, playing in China is as aggressive as it gets.

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (09-25-2024)

September 25, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 9/25/24

September 25, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled GDX position to November options.
  3. No positions were exited since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Charts Premium,
ASC Mastermind

ASC Mastermind Schedule

September 25, 2024

Here is the schedule for the ASC Mastermind course: 

Week 1 (Sept. 25): Defining Personal Objectives For Trading & Investing

Week 2 (Oct. 2): Why Momentum Trading Works

Week 3 (Oct. 9): How To Do Intermarket Analysis

Week 4 (Oct. 16): Using Relative Strength

Week 5 (Oct. 30): Sentiment & Seasonality

Week 6 (Nov. 6): Pattern Recognition

Week 7 (Nov. 13): Incorporating Moving Averages Into Your Analysis

Week 8 (Nov. 20): How To Really Make Money With Dividend Stocks

Week 9 (Nov. 27): Finding The Best Small-Cap Stocks

Week 10 (Dec. 4): Profiting Off Of Short Squeezes

Week 11 (Dec. 11): When Is It Too Late To Buy Mega-Caps?

Week 12 (Dec. 18): How To Find The Next $100 Billion Company

Hot Corner Insider

Control Empresarial Reports a $16 Million PBF Purchase

September 25, 2024

The most notable insider activity on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Control Empresarial de Capitales SA.

The investment firm revealed a purchase of 515,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF, equivalent to $16,391,491.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 24, 2024:

 
All Star Charts Crypto

📈 Psychological Risk Management

September 24, 2024

These last six months in the crypto market have reflected the utility of patience in trading. Because we view trading through a financial lens, we always assume that risk management is preventing financial loses. And as such, we integrate strategies to mitigate against such losses.

These include stop losses, invalidations, and hedging strategies.

And while these are imperative in preventing losses from spiraling out of control, there is another aspect that gets commonly overlooked.

And that is psychological risk management.

Just like our portfolio value, we need to maintain a healthy balance within our inner emotional and psychological wellbeing. When we have a prolonged stretch of losing money in the markets, it negatively weighs on our mind. As such, this can create a negative feedback loop whereby we make decisions without awareness of the emotions in behind them.

A common misconception in investing psychology is that we should block off emotions entirely. By running a trading system, it is said that this eliminates bias and emotion from the picture, allowing us to make objective decisions informed by data. However, what this approach fails to...

The Strazza Letter

Silver is Ready to Shine

September 24, 2024

The precious metals market is heating up.

Gold has been making new all-time highs consistently since March and now Silver looks like it wants to join in on the fun. 

I think there is a major catchup trade brewing as silver threatens to resolve this multi-year basing pattern. In fact, it looks like it may already be underway.

Today it rallied nearly 5%, marking its best day since May, and closed at its highest level in over 10 years.

I love to see this kind of momentum on breakouts.

I also think gold has given us a beautiful roadmap for where silver is headed next.

The chart below shows the historical correlation between gold and silver.

 

As you can see, the two metals tend to move together, peaking and bottoming around the same time.

They also tend to follow similar patterns, just like the multi-year ranges that formed starting at the 2020 highs.

Gold already resolved higher back in the first quarter and is up about 27% since. 

Silver is resolving higher as we speak.

Considering the higher beta that silver carries, we think there's plenty room for upside from here.

We're buying silver and...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Silver Is Breaking Out!

September 24, 2024

Precious metals continue to show strength as both gold and silver hit new highs in today's session.

First, it was gold leading the charge, and now silver is making its move.

Let’s take a look at this silver futures chart:

 

As you can see, silver is breaking out of a multi-year base, with momentum accelerating sharply to the upside.

After a failed attempt earlier this year, buyers are giving themselves another chance to push prices out of the box.

If this breakout sticks above $30, we want to be aggressively long not just silver, but the broader precious metals space.

There is a growing list of opportunities, as well as plenty of vehicles and various methods we can use to gain exposure and add leverage to this theme.

The options market is one way we can do it.

Strazza just put an options trade on a silver miner for Breakout Multiplier members this morning. If you're not already a member,...

All Star Options

The Hidden Costs of Options Trading Are Real

September 24, 2024

A few years back, Robinhood made a big splash in the retail trading world by offering Commission-Free options trading.

Retail traders and the media that served them rejoiced! 

"This is a game-changer!" they shouted.

And in some ways it was. But not in the way you might think.

It changed the game for retail options brokers to be able to attract multitudes more sheep to get shorn. How?

For one thing, retail brokers are able to command top dollar from market-making firms who pay the brokers for the opportunity to take the other side of retail trades. This is called Payment for Order Flow (PFOF).

From Robinhood's August 7, 2024 earnings report:

In the first half of 2024, Robinhood earned substantial revenue from payment for order flow (PFOF), particularly from options trading.

In Q1 2024, options trading contributed $154 million to Robinhood’s transaction-based revenue, a 16% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This represented a significant portion of...