We had just stepped onto the tee box at the 18th hole a couple of days ago when it started to sprinkle.

Were it January we might have said, “Hey, let’s just finish the round, maybe we get a little wet…”

Not this time of year. The sky was turning. We felt the water. The only responsible thing to do was head for the clubhouse.

Clouds burst open right as we got there. Had we tried to finish the round we would’ve been soaked.

It’s hurricane season in Florida. This time of year, when it rains, it pours.

And it’s volatile. Often you don’t know when the rain is coming. Meteorologists do the best they can. But these storm systems move fast and defy forecasting.

All we can do is seek shelter when we see it coming.

It reminds me a lot of the current market environment. Selling pressure and volatility have really picked up since July.

We’ll talk more about it on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET during the Breakout Multiplier...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The biotech market has a great divide between the haves and have-nots. Some stocks have experienced tremendous markup phases, while others can't seem to get out of the doghouse.

Today, we're covering a biotech stock that has rallied nearly 200% this year. 

Despite this rally, the short sellers have continued to add to their positions and are close to carrying their largest short position ever.

With the stock coiling at a shelf of former highs from last summer, we're betting the short sellers are on the verge of unwinding their positions and sparking a short squeeze.

With yesterday's market action firing, potentially, another warning shot that Q4 trading will be challenging, I'm on the hunt for opportunities that may be a bit more uncorrelated to the risk I currently have on the books.

One such opportunity is presenting itself in the bond market and we're going to position ourselves to win both in the short-term or the longer-term.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to SMH position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

The September Monthly Candlesticks Strategy Session for ASC Premium Members is happening tonight at 6 p.m. ET.

Click here to register.

As we head into September, we want to keep in mind that this is historically one of the most difficult months of the year for stock market investors.

But what could cause markets to struggle for a while, after such an impressive year for returns?

This is the chart that stands out the most to me. We're looking at Technology relative to the S...

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Paul Auvil, director of Elastic N.V. $ESTC.

Auvil reported the acquisition of 20,000 ESTC shares, equivalent to $1.4 million.

Darwin Global Management Ltd filed a 13G for Insmed Incorporated $INSM revealing an initial stake of 5.70%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from September 3, 2024:

Crypto markets have been trending lower and I have purposefully been putting on very few trades. I think this is the best approach for now while the market sets up.

View this as a positive thing, because while many are losing money and getting emotional, we have the ability to be patient and preserve our capital.

This means that when the good times inevitably return, we can go back to making money rather than clawing back from a drawdown.

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Wednesday September 4th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Wednesday evening:

It's no secret that we're in a bull market for precious metals.

We made the argument for a new secular uptrend for these shiny rocks in last week's Gold Rush video.

Why do we think this is the case?

Gold futures have been printing fresh all-time highs seemingly every day, and precious metals stocks have followed suit with new highs of their own.

When you go back and study the previous cycles you'll notice that every bull market is characterized by more and more stocks making new highs along with the underlying futures contracts.

So let's take a step back and look at some stocks that are making new highs.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to GDX position.
3. Exited IBB position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Liberty 77 Fund L.P.

The private equity firm reported a purchase of $2,368,909 in Lions Gate Entertainment $LGF.A.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from August 30, 2024:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended August 30, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases,...

The crypto market is trading sideways after a major liquidation event last month.

My base case is for sideways trading for at least a month before an upward move into year-end.

I have little trading exposure and think patience in the near-term is the best approach.

It's a good thing this is a long weekend. Because if you're like me, and you actually count how many stocks are going up and making new highs, then it's going to take longer than ever to do it.

The list of stocks going up keeps getting longer and longer. 

That's probably NOT because breadth is deteriorating. 

In fact, the Advance-Decline line on the world's most important stock exchange just hit new all-time highs. So did the world's most important stock index.

Meanwhile, we don't have bull markets without Financials participating.

So how are Financials doing?

New all-time highs. Again.

But is it just Financials though?

Or are other Sectors making new highs too?

Here are Industrials hitting new all-time highs. Again.

Even Materials are participating now.

Chemicals just hit new all-time highs.

And the broader S&P Materials Index just hit new all-time highs. 

In bull markets Healthcare does well.

Healthcare's weighting is the 2nd largest in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg and 3rd largest weighting in the S&...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

The current market environment is creating a unique opportunity for bonds. 

With the charts signaling strong potential for gains into year-end, now is the moment to take action and add some bond exposure to your portfolio. 

With some big reversals underway, the timing couldn’t be better to capitalize on these new trends. 

Not only are we seeing a growing list of base breakouts for treasuries, corporate bonds, and bond ETFs, but the intermarket landscape is turning increasingly favorable for fixed income in general.

Let’s jump in and discuss why we’re buying bonds here and how we want to express this thesis.

The fed is giving us a clear indication these days that we’ve seen the peak in interest rates for now. The odds of a rate cut at the September meeting in a few weeks are at 67.5%. 

Click the table to enlarge the view.

This data is from the CME FedWatch Tool as of August 29, 2024.

In this kind of...

If you're like me, you probably spend too much money on coffee every morning.

And that's not likely to change... but that's okay!

We can profit from an upside move in the commodity and hedge our exposure.

We've had tremendous success trading Cocoa futures in the last several years. 

We're also close to buying Cotton futures as they look to trap the bears below a key polarity zone.

There's a trend here: soft commodities keep rewarding us for owning them.

We think Coffee is next.

My analyst team took a look up north, eh!

And what did they find? A liar standing next to a whole in the ground. (Old gold speculators joke).

While that line might be a joke, nobody will laughing at today's trade idea if this stock makes a run to anywhere near our price targets.