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Buying Oil For a Rebound

March 12, 2025

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Crude oil has been trading in lock-step with the US Dollar Index all cycle. 

And believe it or not, the dollar has been hit even harder than the stock market lately. DXY is down about 7% in two months.

I want to bet on an oversold bounce in US dollars, and I don’t think there is a better way to do it than getting long oil.

Here’s crude oil futures catching a bid at the lower bounds of a multi-year range:

And here’s our vehicle, the United States Oil Fund $USO:

Notice our volatility squeeze indicator crossing up in the bottom pane.

I think we’re in for a killer rebound rally. I’m more interested in a quick double in this market than a big winner. This setup is perfect for it.

We’re buying the $USO 4/17 $76 calls for approximately $1.00-1.20 per contract.

Steve

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