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Breakout Multiplier

Picking Tops. Not Bottoms.

March 26, 2025

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

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U.S. equities are facing a key confluence of resistance, putting buyers to the test.

Earlier this month, we bet on Homebuilders holding their ground within a potential topping pattern, but the bulls couldn’t get it done.

We already sold the double on our PHM calls, and now we want to take a shot at this group from the short side.

So, let’s flip the script and see if the bears can get it done now. 

This is a massive distribution pattern. If it completes...

Breakout Multiplier

Buying Oil For a Rebound

March 12, 2025

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you're not a member, sign up here.

Crude oil has been trading in lock-step with the US Dollar Index all cycle. 

And believe it or not, the dollar has been hit even harder than the stock market lately. DXY is down about 7% in two months.

I want to bet on an oversold bounce in US dollars, and I don’t think there is a better way to do it than getting long oil.

Here’s crude oil futures catching a bid at the lower bounds of a multi-year range:

 

And here’s our vehicle, the United States Oil Fund $USO:

 

Notice our volatility squeeze indicator crossing up in the bottom pane.

I think we’re in for a killer rebound...