With only a few days left in November, let’s dive into some S&P 500 December seasonality.
When looking back over the last six elections, December has shown a positive return. Will this trend continue in 2024?
Here’s the chart:
(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The green bars indicate a positive return for December in an election year.
The red bars indicate a negative return for December in an election year.
The Takeaway: Stocks often perform well as the year comes to a close, and it wouldn't be surprising if buying pressure continues for the remainder of the year.
Since 1952, the S&P 500 has experienced positive returns in 15 out of the 18 Decembers during an election year.
That’s 83% of the time! - The highest reading of any month.
Zooming in on the past two decades, the last six elections have all resulted in positive returns in December.
On average, December during an election year sees a gain of 1.35%, which is higher than the average return for December.
The S&P 500 price trend in 2024 has well and truly been outperforming the historical seasonal trend, with this year shaping up to be one of the best years for stocks during an election year.
I anticipate this trend and seasonal outperformance will continue.
