It's been a rainy and windy week in the Florida Keys so we've been all couped up inside.
Now that the Hurricane Helene storm system has played its course, we're due for some beautiful weather.
I woke up this morning and I checked the forecast.
It said the sun will be shining.
Another thing I typically do from bed each morning is check my crypto accounts and watchlists.
When I did, I noticed the SOL is shining too.
Solana has rallied about 20% since the middle of last week.
When it comes to the overall crypto market, Solana is as important as anything.
It is the 4th largest token with a market cap of about $74B. For context, if Solana was in the S&P 500, it would carry a larger weight than large cap stocks like Target, Crowdstrike, and FedEx. It's a big deal.
But more importantly, Solana is the secular leader when it comes to crypto.
It tends to move first, and tip off the rest of the asset class, and it tends to outperform during bull cycles.
Solana kicked off the new crypto bull market with serious momentum back in January of 2023. And then again last fall, before rallying 1,000% to its Q1 highs.
I'm seeing something on the chart today that reminds me of both of those periods, but one more than the other.
Here is a weekly chart with the Percentage Price Oscillator in the lower pane. Think of this as a MACD but on percentage terms.
The weekly PPO is curling higher and setting up for a bullish crossover in the coming weeks. There was also a crossover near the center-line back in October of last year, just before that monster move.
We had one in January 2023, June 2023, and March 2024 as well. These signals were valid, but not like the one from October.
It's always better when the crossover happens around the center line.
If the PPO line is deep in negative territory, it usually means the asset is coming off a massive downtrend. Jan 2023 is a good example.
And when the PPO line is too high, it means an uptrend has already been in place for a while, so might not have much left in the tank. This was the case in March of this year.
Like last October, right now the PPO line is around zero.
This is because prices have been consolidating for the past 7 months, resulting in a convergence of the short and long-term moving averages.
I think this range is about to break higher, just like it did this time last year. We could be looking at a bullish crossover in the PPO by next week.
If it happens, Solana and friends are headed back into rally mode.
The AVWAP from the range high comes in right around 156. That's been my line in the sand. We're above it now.
I think it's go time. The big question is how far does this next leg up for cryptos take us?
The Q4 rally last year was an epic one. Can't wait to see what happens this time around.
