The "news" is designed to be a distraction for investors.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin made some noise as the price soared 10% amid rumors of the approval of BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF.
At the height of this speculation, Cointelegraph apologized, stating the rumors were false, resulting in the liquidation of $65 million BTC within minutes.
When we look at the chart, Bitcoin continues to press against the same overhead supply level it’s struggled with all year. It’s really that simple.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
One of the relative trends we must regularly evaluate is the relationship between large-caps and small-caps.
Sometimes large-caps outperform. Other times, it’s the little guys leading the way.
This ratio tells us which ones we should be focusing on.
The chart below shows the Russell 1000 Large-Cap ETF (IWB) relative to the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (IWM) breaking out of a monster-basing formation.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Markets have been able to stage a significant rebound off the lows from last week.
After some massive bullish engulfing candles Friday, the major averages - led by mega-cap growth stocks, have exhibited strong follow-through to start the week.
That changed a little today as markets gave back some gains as the dollar and rates ticked higher.
The bottom line is there is still work to do. While stocks appear to have found a tradable low, that doesn't tell us much about where we go from here.
If the dollar and rates hold current levels, things are likely to remain messy.
However, even under this scenario, we think there will be some big winners as we march forward to the end of the year. And all indications from the market suggest most of those winners will be from the tech and growth space.
Let's outline some of our favorites right here, right now.
The negative correlation between equities and the dollar remains intact, representing a fundamental piece of the current intermarket puzzle.
When the dollar strengthens, stocks tend to fall under selling pressure. On the flip side, stocks often enjoy strong bull runs when the dollar trends lower.
Banks are considered one of the world's most important industry groups as they provide an excellent overview of the economic environment and overall risk appetite toward markets.
After suffering a deep decline in Q1, prices carved out a tradable low, rebounded, and settled into a well-defined trading range.
However, these laggards continue to be a concern for the financial sector and the broader market as the charts look vulnerable heading into earnings season.
Here we have Money-Center Banks $KBE, Regional Banks $KRE, and Community Banks $QABA, all of which are below their AVWAPS from the May lows:
As the market has been sending mixed signals since July, we’re seeking information from our risk appetite indicators to try to gauge the next move.
One of our favorite ways to measure risk appetite is to compare the consumer discretionary sector with consumer staples. This tells us whether market participants are positioning themselves defensively, or embracing risk.
Discretionary stocks include automobiles, retailers, and homebuilders, among other things. Theoretically, we’re talking about products and services consumers buy with their discretionary incomes.
Meanwhile, staples are what "consumers" will buy regardless of how bad economic conditions get… things like food, toothpaste, cigarettes, etc.
When this ratio points higher, it illustrates a healthy degree of risk-seeking behavior among investors. Alternatively, when it points downwards, it speaks to a defensive tone and typically occurs during bear markets.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
Energy stocks have been the best-performing group thus far during the second half of 2023. However, they have given back some of their gains in recent weeks as selling pressure resurfaces.
With energy indexes rolling over at their old highs yet again, the question we’re asking (and have been asking) is simple…
What is it going to take for these stocks to finally break out?
Here is a dual-pane chart showing the Equal-Weight Energy Sector testing the upper bounds of a multi-month basing pattern on both absolute and relative terms.
Rising rates have been a worldwide phenomenon for the last two and a half years as yields have climbed non-stop.
Not only are we seeing the curve in the US reach decade-long highs, but the benchmark yields in Germany, France, Spain, and even Japan are also trading at multi-year highs.
Below is the US 10-year Yield reaching its highest level since 2007 after breaking out of a multi-month base three weeks ago.
Sellers have a hold on equity markets as internal weakness expands and downside momentum picks up.
When looking for evidence of additional downside risk, some of the most valuable information we have is in the price action of the weakest areas. The rationale is that they should break down first and lead the rest of the market lower.
With how poorly the smallest stocks have performed this year, the Russell Microcap Index $IWC is the perfect signpost to help us determine the next move for stocks.
The chart below shows IWC resolving to the downside from a descending triangle formation. It just closed at its lowest level in roughly three years.
