I'm a big fan of Phil's work. He's the Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures and a market veteran with more than 20 years of experience trading futures and forex.
Today, Phil shares with us his technical perspective on precious metals and discusses key fundamental drivers at play right now.
Gold priced in USD has finally joined other global currencies, closing last week at an all-time high. Silver, the high-beta play, is outperforming its more reserved cousin (gold). And gold mining stocks are breaking out.
Many of our trade ideas over the past few weeks are working. I believe this trend has just begun and could last for months – or even quarters.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.
The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...
Precious metals and crude oil stole the show this week.
Crude oil reclaimed its prior-cycle peak, gapping higher on the Sunday open, while gold and silver posted fresh highs.
I’ll have more on those shiny metals Monday in the weekly Gold Rush report.
Today, I want to bring your attention to a commodity that often escapes the headlines – palladium – and why I think a significant bottom could be in place for this diverse metal.
I say “diverse” because palladium has multiple use-cases, from catalytic converters to fine jewelry.
Around ASC we jokingly refer to palladium as “the Notre Dame of precious metals” because it’s in its own conference.
Categorizations aside, here are three reasons I believe palladium is a strong buy…
Commercial Positioning
Commercial hedges hold their largest net-long position in history!
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.
I recently came across a video on youtube from a very smart man – whom I respect and have had several favorable interactions with – that made me shake my head.
But before I throw any shade on any other professional colleague, let me be the first to say that I’m no genius. My shit stinks too, and I’m sure I’m equally guilty of throwing questionable ideas or thoughts out into the metaverse from time to time. I’m human, just like everyone else.
So here’s what got me rankled.
The video had a catchy title like: “How I made fourteen hundred dollars in one day trading 0-DTE options.”
Ok. I’m interested. I like to make that kinda money each trading day. Tell me more!
The short video went on to demonstrate how this trader sold a slightly out-of-the-money naked put in $SPX...
We held our April Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
The 30-, 10-, and 5-year contracts are trading above our risk levels. And the bond ETFs we covered a couple of weeks ago are also flashing buy signals.
The bond market is sending a well-advertised message to all investors…
It’s time to buy bonds.
Let's review one of the most liquid treasury ETFs, $TLT.
Zooming out on the weekly chart of the Treasury bond ETF TLT…
We have a potential failed breakdown below the former 2014 lows, followed by a tight, multi-month consolidation.
A clear break above 110 and the former 2018 lows turns our view higher toward 135.
On the other hand, a resolution below 100 carries downside risks back to the 2011 lows at approximately 88.