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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Breadth Thrusts?

March 19, 2022

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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Rocks Are Ready To Rip!

March 18, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley 

Gold looks like it’s ready to run.

The largest gold miner in the world, Newmont Mining Corp. $NEM, has broken out of a multi-year base.

Silver and platinum have dug in at critical support levels and are catching higher.

And, most importantly, gold is in the process of reclaiming its former all-time highs from summer 2020.

These are all bullish developments, suggesting gold -- and precious metals more broadly -- are ready to join in on the party that most commodities have been enjoying for more than a year.

Last month, gold broke above its former 2011 highs near 1,924. Here’s a zoomed-out view of the chart:

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International Hall of Famers (03-18-2022)

March 18, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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2 to 100 Club (03-16-2022)

March 16, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

[Options] Fading A Pullback in Metals

March 16, 2022

The move in metals, commodities, and materials was pretty rapid during the last couple of months. Given that, it's little surprise we've seen a pullback in a lot of these names over the past week or so.

One name that was recently on our Hall of Famers report rose rapidly with everyone else. And now it feels like it overshot a bit on it's pullback and it's offering a nice tactical opportunity to swoop in and steal some profits.

The Tale of Patterns and the Human Condition

March 16, 2022

Anyone familiar with the endeavor of trading has eventually realized the flaws of our human instincts. This isn't isolated to investing.

It's a widely documented phenomenon that we're constantly susceptible to subconscious biases.

We're approaching this from the lens of technical analysis. But apophenia is universal to the human condition.

Apophenia: the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things (such as objects or ideas).

Let's run through some examples and see how it applies to trading.

Cash Levels Near Multi-Decade Highs

March 16, 2022

Very high cash levels are a good thing.

Investors being scared to death is historically a net positive for stocks, not a negative.

According to BofA's Fund Manager Survey, we're near multi-decade highs for cash levels.

Take a look at those dates:

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Assessing Risk With Aussie/Yen

March 15, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

For more than a year, most of the market and many of our risk ratios have been a trendless mess.

High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Copper vs. Gold, and our custom Risk-On vs. Risk-Off ratio have all gone nowhere since the beginning of 2021.

The Australian dollar/Japanese yen also falls into the range-bound category, as the risk-on pair looks a lot like the ratios we just mentioned.

But AUD/JPY has been showing resilience the past few weeks and is currently challenging the upper bounds of its multi-month range.

Since most risk appetite indicators aren’t giving us much in the form of new information these days, an upside resolution from AUD/JPY would be a major development. 

It hasn’t happened yet, but things are certainly setting up that way.

In today’s post, we’ll dive into one of our favorite risk-on/risk-off gauges – the AUD/JPY cross - and discuss what it’s currently suggesting about risk-seeking behavior.

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The Minor Leaguers (03-14-2022)

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1B and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we did this is simple…

To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1B and $4B.

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Follow the Flow (03-14-2022)

March 14, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.