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Bonds Hit New Year-to-date Highs

September 6, 2024

With interest rates coming off and expectations for rate cuts on the rise, US Treasury Bonds are hitting the highest levels they've seen all year.

Look at the size of this base in the 7-10yr Bond ETF:

 

All the attention has been on the yield curve and how we're now officially getting back above the zero line.

This yield curve inversion has lasted longer than ever.

The "recession" was supposed to start when the yield curve originally inverted. 

The "recession" was going to come any minute because the yield curve was inverted for so long.

The "recession" is now going to come because the yield curve is uninverting.

Imagine spending your time worrying about other people's recessions instead of your own personal gain in the market?

 

Recessions are a choice for many investors, especially the people who own almost all of the assets in the stock market.

And even if the recession wasn't a choice, and something we all have to live with, we know from history that price leads first, and then the economy follows. 

So if your goal as a trader or investor is to profit from the market, then why would you spend any...

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A Precious Short Squeeze

September 5, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Precious metals stocks have been ripping since Gold futures resolved a multi-decade accumulation pattern earlier this year.

But most of these stocks don't have much short interest...

We love to trade stocks with high short interest as there is a built in catalyst of forced buyers when the stock makes an upside move.

Today, we're outlining a trade for a precious metals stock with an extremely high days-to-cover ratio and short interest.

First, check out this long-term uptrend in A-Mark Precious Metals $AMRK:

 

There aren't many precious metals stocks that look this good...

Here's how we're trading it:

 

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Investors Are Rotating Into Safe Haven Assets

September 5, 2024

The stage is set for a strategic shift.

Since this summer, safe haven assets have been catching a bid and outperforming across the board.

Investors are paying attention to growth indicators like ISM and PMI data. Other investors are looking at CPI and paying extra-close attention to the Fed… 

Here's the US Core Inflation Rate along with the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF $IEF. Since inflation peaked and rolled over in 2022, bonds have been building a massive base:

 

However, similar to economic growth data, inflation is a lagging indicator.

The same is true for employment.

Here's the unemployment rate along with the 2s/10s spread.

We are starting to see some pressure in the labor market, which goes hand-in-hand with rising treasury spreads.

 

July job openings dropped to 7.67 million, the lowest since January 2021. This marks a significant decline from the March 2022 peak of 12.2 million. 

There were only 1.1 jobs for every unemployed person, down from 2.0 last year. Major declines were seen in healthcare, government, and transportation. Voluntary quits decreased to 3.3 million...

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Junior Hall of Famers (09-05-2024)

September 5, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We want as many vehicles and...

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Both Winners and Losers

September 5, 2024

We're now over 2 years into a bull market, so you know what that means?

It means correlations have come off a lot.

Keep in mind that when volatility spikes, correlations among S&P500 components shoot up to one. 

It seems like they all move together, either up or down, depending on how the day goes.

We saw that in 2022 and we most certainly saw that during Covid.

But now that we're 2 years into this bull market, correlations have come off so much that it is easier than ever to find BOTH winners and losers out there.

This is NOT an "everything moves together" market. It's actually the furthest thing from it.

Take a look at SharkNinja, for example, making new all-time highs again this month.

 

Earlier this week I was just trying to do some harmless research on SharkNinja $SN and now I got my wife asking me why I'm looking at women's vibrators on amazon...

"It's just part of the job babe. Just part of the job..."

Apparently SharkNinja's product line extends beyond vacuum cleaners and blenders.

I had to learn that one the hard way...

Meanwhile, a big question I find myself asking here is...

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2 to 100 Club (09-05-2024)

September 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

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The Short Report (09-04-2024)

September 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot...

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A Short Squeeze You Can't Phathom

September 4, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

The biotech market has a great divide between the haves and have-nots. Some stocks have experienced tremendous markup phases, while others can't seem to get out of the doghouse.

Today, we're covering a biotech stock that has rallied nearly 200% this year. 

Despite this rally, the short sellers have continued to add to their positions and are close to carrying their largest short position ever.

With the stock coiling at a shelf of former highs from last summer, we're betting the short sellers are on the verge of unwinding their positions and sparking a short squeeze.

 

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Technology in Purgatory

September 4, 2024

The September Monthly Candlesticks Strategy Session for ASC Premium Members is happening tonight at 6 p.m. ET.

Click here to register.

As we head into September, we want to keep in mind that this is historically one of the most difficult months of the year for stock market investors.

But what could cause markets to struggle for a while, after such an impressive year for returns?

This is the chart that stands out the most to me. We're looking at Technology relative to the S...

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[Premium] Details For September 2024 Monthly Strategy Session

September 3, 2024

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Wednesday September 4th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Wednesday evening:

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Under The Hood (09-02-2024)

September 2, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended August 30, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases,...

Too Many All-time Highs to Count

August 31, 2024

It's a good thing this is a long weekend. Because if you're like me, and you actually count how many stocks are going up and making new highs, then it's going to take longer than ever to do it.

The list of stocks going up keeps getting longer and longer. 

That's probably NOT because breadth is deteriorating. 

In fact, the Advance-Decline line on the world's most important stock exchange just hit new all-time highs. So did the world's most important stock index.

 

 

Meanwhile, we don't have bull markets without Financials participating.

So how are Financials doing?

New all-time highs. Again.

  

But is it just Financials though?

Or are other Sectors making new highs too?

Here are Industrials hitting new all-time highs. Again.

 

 

Even Materials are participating now.

Chemicals just hit new all-time highs.

And the broader S&P Materials Index just hit new all-time highs. 

 

 

In bull markets Healthcare does well.

Healthcare's weighting is the 2nd largest in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg and 3rd largest weighting in the S&...