It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

It’s only six weeks into the new year and we’re already getting a sense that commodities could very well outperform just as they did in 2021.

Evidence supporting our commodity supercycle thesis continues to mount each day, as participation across the commodity space expands.

Crude oil is breaking above 90. Base metals like aluminum and tin are hitting new all-time highs. And the rally in grains is getting back on track.

All these things suggest that last year's bull run wasn’t a simple “one and done” event.

One key difference between last year and today is strength among commodities is starting to spill over into commodity-related equities.

This is a critical development that supports our bullish thesis. 

Did The Economist just call the bottom for the market?

Take a look at the latest cover.

They're asking the question, "What would happen if the markets crashed?"

As technicians, our job is to respond and react to the evidence in front of us.

The market has a funny way of punishing those who let their ego and opinions drive their decision-making instead of objectively following money flow.

We say it over and over again: As a trader, your only job is to follow money flow. Everything else is noise.

This morning, we can't help but think about the resolution from this rally seen in a handful of crypto stocks. I think Microstrategy $MSTR and Coinbase $COIN show it better than any other.

What will it be?

I have one trade that stands out head and shoulders above the rest as my number one F-up. I really screwed this one up.

Financially, it was my best trade of the year. Probably my best trade in several years…

But it still stands out as my worst trade of all time.

This was circa 2013. I had recently moved to Boulder, CO and life was good. New vistas, new friends, new environments, new everything.

And one thing I did which was new for me (at the time), was I had come up with a long-term bullish thesis on a stock. And over the course of a couple days, I wrote up about 5 pages of notes on my yellow legal pad outlining exactly how I’d play my bullish thesis using options.

This week we got a terrific reminder about weighing all the evidence properly from new Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel.

In a recent podcast, the new Dolphins coach was asked about the role of analytics in today's game and how it impacts his decision making.

I thought McDaniel's answer was a great one and really resonates with how we approach markets here at All Star Charts,

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The middle of the curve is catching higher as the US 10-year Treasury yield pushes toward its next milestone at 2.00%.

Now that we’re starting to see some follow-through to the upside, it raises the question…

Are these new highs in the 10-year sustainable?

With inflation expectations just off their highs, short-term rates surging in the US, and yields ripping higher across the globe, we think the answer is a resounding yes! 

A few weeks ago, we discussed how global yields -- particularly those in developed Europe -- were confirming the new highs for US yields.

Since then, we've only seen this trend accelerate. With central banks turning increasingly hawkish, rates continue to break out to new highs around the world.

Today, we're going to dive further into this theme by taking a look at a handful of benchmark rates outside the US. 

Let’s dive in!

First up is the German 10-year:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

But, now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

To quote Steve Strazza: "When commodity stocks go, they go!"

This pretty much sums up the talk we had this morning when coming up with today's trade idea.

We were looking across the strongest sectors and hunting for opportunities to get involved. One challenge we were having is many of the stocks we liked had either already had a big move and we'd be chasing, earnings were on deck in less than a week, or the options chains were too thin for us to get good fills.

Finally, after some searching, we found a name that made sense. And it was one I wasn't familiar with.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

In April 2020, crude oil traded below zero and marked the perfect capitulation event for a number of trends.

Around the very same time, both commodities and stocks bottomed and kicked off major rallies.

Until recently, commodities had underperformed stocks for about a decade. To make matters worse, they were moving lower on an absolute basis for most of that time as well. 

Not only have commodities started to trend higher on an absolute basis again. They're also undergoing a reversal in their relative trend with stocks and other alternatives.

We’ve been clear about our bullish position as we’ve discussed the potential for a new commodity supercycle for over a year. 

Now, we want to take that thesis one step further as the evidence is building in favor of commodities experiencing a sustained period of outperformance relative to stocks.

To best take advantage of this trend, we want to be overweight commodities and commodity-related stocks.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar can’t catch a bid.

Since briefly reclaiming its November highs last month, it’s been nothing but down and to the right for the US Dollar Index $DXY.

Many global currencies have reacted by catching higher – especially the euro. But commodity-centric currencies – like the Canadian and Australian dollars – have had a more muted reaction. We think that’s likely to change in the coming weeks and months.

With interest rates on the rise around the world and crude oil prices pushing above 90, we think it’s just a matter of time before we begin to see some real strength from these currencies – especially if we see a sustained downtrend in the USD.

Today we’re going to highlight one of these forex pairs, as we think it’s poised for a major move. Let’s talk about the USD/CAD.

Here’s a weekly chart of the USD/CAD cross: