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[Video] Best Burger In NYC? And Some Charts Too!

March 5, 2022

It's always fun dropping by the Ritholtz office in New York City.

Basically what happens is we yell at each other for about an hour, and then we go out to eat and drink until we pass out.

It's pretty great.

On this episode of the Compound and Friends, I sit down with Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and my old pal Dan Nathan joined us this time as well.

As usual, we ripped through some charts, but we also discuss the best burger in New York City.

I thought my answer was the right one. But it turns out Dan Nathan was right all along. I trust this man with my life.

Hope you enjoy!

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Good News From Dr. Copper

March 4, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are having their best week since 1970. And if you don't know what happened after that, let's just say it was a good decade for them as a group.

The CRB Index is up more than 13%. Crude oil is trading above 100. Wheat futures opened limit up last night, “dotting the chart.” Base metals such as aluminum and tin continue to print all-time highs.

And even precious metals have joined the party! 

Could it get any more bullish?

As it turns out, it can…

After almost a year of sideways action, Dr. Copper looks ready for a fresh leg higher, as it just closed the week at new all-time highs!

Here's a close-up look at the continuation pattern copper has been consolidating in since May of last year:

Digesting its gains following such an explosive move off the 2020 lows is constructive and has set the stage for a new rally.

While the past few weeks’ action in some commodities may suggest otherwise, charts don’t move in a straight...

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International Hall of Famers (03-04-2022)

March 4, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

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Young Aristocrats (March 2022)

March 3, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.

These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve.

That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By...

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (03-02-2022)

March 2, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during...

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Some Stocks Like It Hot

March 2, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We could sit back and speculate on what measures the Federal Reserve is likely to take to curb inflation. But it wouldn't change the fact that inflation is already here.

We’d rather focus on what market participants are doing now to position their portfolios for these inflationary pressures.

Since last year, inflation has gripped markets, and we don’t foresee it going away anytime soon. We think the best course of action is to get used to this environment and focus on assets that tend to perform well during periods of inflation.

One of our favorite ways to measure inflation expectations is by analyzing Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) versus Treasuries.

Relative strength from TIPS implies that investors are positioning themselves for a general increase in the prices of goods and services. That’s exactly what we’re seeing today.

Let’s take a look and discuss what we want to do about it.

Here’s an overlay chart of the $TIP/$IEF ratio and the US five-year breakeven inflation rate:

...

[Options] Letting the Market Finance Our Ambitions

March 2, 2022

I feel like this has been the lead for many blog posts recently, but the trend continues: options volatilities continue to remain elevated across the board with $VIX holding above 30, and this makes me want to continue favoring strategies that are net short options premium.

But with the trade today, we're going to leverage options premiums to help us finance a bullish bet on NASDAQ stocks.

It started out with JC and I wanting to simply sell premium, but when we looked into $QQQ options it became pretty clear that we could get paid handsomely if recent lows end up becoming a pivot to higher prices and we took some put premiums to buy out-of-the-money calls.

How To Use Repeatable Setups To Gain a Trading Edge

March 2, 2022

As a trader, it's your job to find an edge.

There's quite literally an infinite amount of strategies, systems, and indicators you can integrate into your process.

But, at the end of the day, mastering just a select few will likely generate alpha as opposed to creating inconsistency in your approach.

Think about it: If you go to the gym, you have a structured program. You don't go to the gym and aimlessly decide on random exercises. You have a rigid plan that you're going to build on top of the lifts you did the workout before.

Trading's the same.

You don't need to switch between every time frame, make every decision using a different indicator from the last, or follow someone else with different objectives from yourself into our trade.

You find repeatable setups where you can find your edge.

For instance, you may only trade in the aftermath of liquidity cascade events that take place a handful of times every year. Mastered well enough, a few well-calculated trades in similar conditions can make your entire year.

In day-to-day life, being a "Jack of all trades, master of none" might serve you well.

But, when...

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How To Trade the Euro's Lows

March 1, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Currency markets are reacting to the war that’s broken out in Europe.

In the past four trading sessions, the Russian ruble has dropped more than 1,000 pips against the US dollar.

And, with fear growing that these initial days of fighting will turn into a protracted conflict, weakness is striking the euro as well.  

Let’s take a look at the EUR/USD cross and outline the levels we’re monitoring in the coming weeks and months.

Here's a daily chart of the EUR/USD going back to the pandemic lows:

After completing a large distribution pattern last September, the EUR/USD pair has been consolidating for the past several months and trading in a range between 1.1483 and 1.1121.

However, as of this writing, it’s undercutting the lower bounds of this continuation pattern and printing fresh 20-month lows. 

A decisive close below the January low of 1.1121 suggests the path of least resistance is lower for the euro. We want to be short against...

Rising Commodity Costs: Do You Complain or Rejoice?

March 1, 2022

As investors we get the option.

You can either profit and help your family because of higher energy and commodities costs.

Or you can complain about it.

I've been through enough cycles at this point, that there will always be that group who just complains and complains.

But for those of you who are proactive, and took advantage of the trends in place, then there's really nothing to complain about.

To the contrary, these are great days! Some of the best days, in fact.

It's funny, because you have those people who bought into that scam of so called "passive" investing. It's ridiculous that some investors still fall for that old trap.

Just because you buy and hold major indexes doesn't make you a "passive" investor. You have to be really really really bad at math to believe that.