There you go.

I wrote that headline to save you the trouble of turning on your TV or following your favorite fear mongerer online. You're welcome.

Unless you've been lost in the wilderness for the last two weeks (not a bad place to have been, btw), then you no doubt know the bulls are currently in trouble.

The fake-out breakout in the Russell 2000 $IWM has turned into a full-blown route, the S&P 500 is testing levels last seen at the end of September and early October, and $VIX has printed the highest levels of the year. There's not a lot to be optimistic about right now -- especially if you're holding a bunch of long positions that are at or near stop-out levels like I am.

I got stopped out of a bunch of positions last week, two today (a long call spread in $STX and a short strangle in $XLK), and a couple more might get exited tomorrow if things don't stabilize here.

Into this maelstrom, we've been dialing back putting on new positions. During last week's holiday-shortened trading week, we only put one new position on -- and that may have been one too many ;)

Every bear market has a culprit.

There's always that one sector or group of stocks that drags the rest of them down.

In 2007, for example, it was Financials and Homebuilders. In 2000, of course, it was Tech and Growth.

This time around, it's been Small-cap Growth, and overall underperformance from Growth in general.

But these 4 are the ones we've been pointing to as good representations of this cycle's culprit, or potential culprit anyway. You never actually know until afterwards.

Since stocks peaked last February, the evidence has been pretty clear that these are the ones that paint the best picture of what's been going on over the past year:

This is probably as good of a time as ever to get back to basics.

Let's try to remember what this is all about.

What the hell are we doing here anyway?

I won't speak on your behalf, but I'll tell you the way I look at it.

The reason Technical Analysis works is because we're identifying trends.

And Prices trend.

I get to talk to traders and investors of all shapes and sizes every day of my life. This is something I like to do for fun, and it's also a great way to learn. But remember, I do this for a living. So not a day goes by where I'm not talking to market participants.

This has gone on for decades now. Everyone from the largest banks and hedge funds on the planet to recent grads first learning how to trade.

I have a lot of conversations with these investors. And one common theme I've heard over the past few months is just how difficult of an environment this currently is.

A lot of traders are getting chopped up in this mess of a market. And it's not anything new, it's been messy for quite some time.

So you're not alone in this.

Please don't think you are.

Bonds & Commodities. That's what the stock market bulls still have left.

But why do Futures matter to stock traders and investors?

Because the bond market and commodities market combined are waaaaay bigger than the stock market.

It starts with the information we're getting from futures markets, and then it trickles down to everything else from there.

With the stock market losing key support in the Nasdaq, S&P500, Small-caps, Transports and Bitcoin, what's left?

I think these 2 are what the bulls have left....

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The bull market for commodities is alive and well. They were the top-performing asset class last year, and they’re kicking off the new year with a lead once again. 

The energy-heavy CRB Index is printing new seven-year highs, and our ASC Equal-Weight Commodity Index just resolved from a nine-month base to its highest level since 2013.

To take advantage of this area of leadership, we’ve been highlighting strength and outlining long ideas in a variety of commodity markets.

We know not everyone has access to the futures markets, and that’s OK, because there are plenty of opportunities to express a bullish thesis on commodities through the equity market.

To make this easier, we’ve put together a universe of stocks that offer investors exposure to a wide array of different commodities.

Let’s dive in and talk about some of them.

Here’s our Natural Resource Stocks table:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

Asset prices trend. We know that.

It's why technical analysis works.

Price changes for stocks, rates, commodities and even crytpos move in trends. They're not random.

We know this. It's not a secret.

So we should respect the behavior of the market. Not stick to narratives the lead to poor risk management.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Tuesday night we held our January Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

We're putting on an $SMH March 265/270/320/325 Iron Condor for an approximately $2.15 credit.

This means we’re short the 270 puts and 320 calls, while protecting our position $5 away on both sides with long 265 puts and long 325 calls. We’ll be doing the same number of contracts at all four strikes to keep the risk even.

Check out our short video with the thought process behind these trades:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

There have been some fireworks to kick off the new year. One of the biggest developments in 2022 has to be the US 10-year yield breaking to its highest level in two years.

The direction in which yields resolve from their 2021 consolidation will impact all the major asset classes, including bonds, stocks, and commodities. We’re already seeing procyclical assets catch an aggressive bid as the 10-year flirts with an upside resolution.

For now, the path of least resistance is higher. But we still need to see follow-through and confirmation before we can be comfortable that these new highs are here to stay.

When we look at the international bond market, it’s not just domestic Treasury yields that are on the rise. We’re actually seeing rates make new highs all across the developed world.

This is bullish confirmation of what we’re seeing domestically, as it suggests the current rising rate environment is a global...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at...