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Hurdles Ahead for the Dollar

November 16, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is pressing to new highs, disregarding what many think it should be doing based on historic intermarket relationships.

Considering the bullish developments and new highs from risk assets, the strength from the US dollar continues to be a head-scratcher.

But will the breakout in the DXY hold, or will it roll over and confirm the signals coming from bonds, stocks, and commodities?

When we broke down the US Dollar Index last month, we pointed out that its strength was rather narrow in terms of how it was performing relative to most individual currencies. Long story short, the recent rally in DXY has been fueled primarily by its two largest components -- the euro and the yen. These two currencies make up more than 70% of the DXY weighting, and the fact that they are at new 52-week lows explains why the index is at new highs.

But we're still not seeing the same kind...

[Podcast] The Seasonality Episode w/ Jeff Hirsch, Author of the Stock Trader’s Almanac

November 16, 2021

As we make our way through the earlier stages of the most bullish time of the year, who better to talk to than Jeff Hirsch, Author of the annual Stock Trader's Almanac.

When it comes to Technical Analysis, what we're doing is analyzing the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants. Seasonality falls under that umbrella and Jeff Hirsch is the ultimate authority on the subject. He's had a front row seat his entire life to how markets trend during different times of the year.

In this episode, we talk about "The Best 6 months", the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Commodities Seasonality, and we even get to learn a little more about his father Yale Hirsch, the originator of the Almanac back in the 1960s.

Jeff Hirsch and I have known each other for many years and have hung out in Vegas, New York, San Francisco and hopefully many more fun...

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Under The Hood (11-15-2021)

November 15, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended November 12, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a "...

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Follow The Flow (11-15-2021)

November 15, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny...

Gold Miners don't need Crypto Wallets

November 14, 2021

The worst investment on earth over the past 15 months could finally be starting to wake up.

Think about it, you could have literally bought anything last summer and made money. A lot of money, actually. Except precious metals.

It's been a sucker's trade for a long time.

That's one thing that's made this that much more attractive to me. The angry gold bugs have finally shut up and admitted defeat.

And historically that's precisely when things start to change:

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Saturday Morning Chartoons: Buy High & Sell Higher

November 13, 2021

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

 

 

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International Hall of Famers (11-12-2021)

November 12, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

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Playing a Post-Harvest Rally

November 12, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Commodities are streaking higher, providing plenty of alpha across the entire space to anyone who can pry their eyes away from their altcoin charts.

Cotton and coffee continue to rip. Crude oil and the energy space are grinding higher. Live cattle are breaking out. Even precious metals are starting to catch a bid.

But what about the grain market? Last week, we pointed out that our Minneapolis Wheat position had hit our target and that it was time to feed the ducks.

Today, we’re going to highlight a couple of grain contracts we want to keep on our radar for buying opportunities in the coming weeks and months.

Let’s dive in!

First up is the March 2022 corn contract:

Like many other cyclical assets, corn futures peaked in May and have since been chopping sideways in a broad range. As the consolidation continues to develop, price has repeatedly found...

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Risk Checklist Review

November 12, 2021

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Everything's falling into place for the bulls.

Mid-caps and small-caps finally joined their large-cap peers at new record highs earlier this month. A bullish expansion in breadth is confirming these breakouts at the index level.

We're also seeing strong confirmation in the form of other risk assets resolving above key levels of interest.

As suspected, our risk checklist has moved up to its highest level since we began tracking it this summer. This list does an excellent job summarizing the global landscape.

Here’s a look at where things stand presently:

What we’ve done here is pinpoint critical levels in some of the most risk-on markets and relative ratios in order to gauge the current level of risk appetite.

Whether these charts are above or below our levels is...

Gold Hits New 52-week Highs?

November 12, 2021

Yes you read that right.

New 52-week highs in Gold, but only when priced in Japanese Yen.

Regardless, the worst investment you could have possibly made in the summer of 2020 could now be the best investment you can make for 2022.

But really? Is Gold in Yen terms making new 52-week highs enough to get bullish precious metals?

Wall Street’s Greatest Lie

November 12, 2021

Someone somewhere a long time ago, before I came around, started telling people that to be a successful investor you should "Buy low and sell high."

The nerve of some people to have such an ego to think they can consistently buy low and sell high....

Are you kidding me?

Markets trend!