From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Yesterday we posted a mystery chart and asked you all to let us know what you would do. Buy, sell, or do nothing?

The responses seemed pretty unanimous, suggesting selling at current levels...and one of you even guessed what it was! Maybe we're making these too easy.

Anyway, we agree with that bearish bias, but were posting to see what other viewpoints might be out there. I guess we got our answer.

Let's get into the real chart and why we feel it's relevant.

With nearly 55 days until April expiration, this is the time I start looking at index and sector ETF’s for possibilities in selling delta-neutral income spreads.

This is an exercise I do every month where I analyze the current volatility priced into each of the most liquid optionable ETFs and measure where each ETF sits within its most recent 90 day trading range.

Well, this afternoon as I went through my monthly analysis, it was determined that out of all of the major ETFs that I follow not a single one offered appealing volatility to sell into and each ETF was trading near the upper or lower end of its most recent trading range. This tells me that ETFs are continuing to trend -- and a trend is not your friend when you are a delta neutral premium seller.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.

The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

When it comes to market breadth, the Advance-Decline line is definitely one of our go-to's. This indicator calculates the net advancers. In other words, the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. This cumulative measure goes up and down over time, similar to the market indexes themselves.

Something to keep in mind is the fact that we use the Common Stocks Only A-D Line because there are other vehicles that trade on the NYSE, like closed-end funds for example. If we're analyzing the stock market, let's stick to just stocks in our indicators.

Mid and Smallcap Indices in India are retesting their 2018 lows, leaving many wondering we're due for a new set of lows just 2 months into 2019.

Finally the event is here!

This is week is Chart Summit 2019 in Breckenridge Colorado!

We're skiing during the day and charting at night! We have skiers and snowboarders coming from all over the world to this unique event. We've even organized snow mobile tours for those who choose not to ride with us on the slopes. Everyone is welcome!

The full schedule has been released. Check it out!

Learn more about the event here.

We're back with another episode of The Money Game with Phil Pearlman. Today's conversation is about the internet troll. Phil gives us insight into the science of what is taking place when a person actually has the time, and interest, to go out of their way to consume someone's content, take the time to think about it and then go even further to publish angry and hurtful words about it. There are psychological issues there that we discuss from both the perspective of the troll and the content producer who gets harassed. This is a good topic and just one of many that we'll try and cover here on The Money Game.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Tuesday we posted a mystery chart and asked you all to let us know what you would do. Buy, sell, or do nothing?

As we expected there weren't any bearish responses, instead most of you were buyers at current levels or on a pullback. We think the evidence is clearly pointing in that direction too, which is why we put the question out there in the first place. What, if anything could we be missing?

Now that we're all on the same side of the boat, let's get into the chart and why we feel it's relevant.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and eliminate the x and y-axes and and all labels eliminated to minimize bias. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. It can even be inverted or a custom index.

The point here is to not guess what it is, but instead to think about what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

The latest Chart of the Week is actually 4 charts! Today we're looking at Emerging Markets and comparing them to the S&P500. When money managers are bullish and positioning themselves for higher stock prices, they tend to invest in more speculative, higher beta names. When PMs are positioning themselves for lower stock prices, EM gets killed, particularly relative to developed markets.

These 4 charts represent divergences between Emerging markets and the S&P500 over the past couple of decades. When the S&P500 is making lower lows but Emerging Markets are simultaneously making higher lows, it's been evidence of risk appetite for stocks and markets have continued to rally for years after the divergence.

The question: Is this time different?

When it comes to strategies, I've noticed that some investors try to force their approach on to the market, even if we're not in the type of environment where that strategy works. The first thing we want to do is identify what type of environment we're in, so that we can then create strategies to try and profit from it. To think we can build a system for a future environment that doesn't exist yet is foolish.

Here is the type of market I think we're in: