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The Oranges Are Ripe

September 13, 2024

We've been obnoxiously talking about soft commodities lately.

But, it's for a good reason! And it all comes down to relative strength.

Aside from a few pockets of strength, the trends have been a mess in the broader commodity complex.

Products like Natural gas and precious metals have been hard to ignore if you're involved in the commodities markets.

There's more though. 

Orange Juice futures made a new all-time high this week and look primed to begin a new leg higher.

Let's talk about how we're playing it:

First, some context: 

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Every Sector is in an Uptrend

September 13, 2024

ASC Premium Membership is for people who put money to work on a regular basis.

It’s for people who want steady idea flow through the cycle, bull market or bear.

It’s for people who want to navigate the market every day with the help of a team of professionals.

And it now includes our exclusive 12-week ASC Mastermind Course, where we’ll study the foundation of all our research.

Click here to join us RISK FREE.

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Sink or Swim With Junk Bonds

September 13, 2024

When Junk Bond traders jump ship, I’m out of stocks.

With all the talk about credit spreads “blowing out” since early August, this is an important discussion to have right now.

We always trust the bond market. Throughout history, bonds have done an impeccable job at alerting investors about problems in risk asset markets. 

When there is stress in other markets, it shows up in fixed income first.

However, as technical analysts, we are mindful of the math that is behind some of the relationships we study and give weight to.

What if I told you that industrials have been massive underperformers during this bull market? 

The absolute price chart looks incredible. How could that be?

We call it the denominator fallacy. 

Benchmarked against the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100, of course they are underperforming. 

We think there is a similar situation playing out for our bond market ratios right now.

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Tech Stocks Are Working

September 12, 2024

I'll be Streaming LIVE TODAY at 4 p.m. ET to talk about what that 20% correction in Semiconductors means for this market, where that money is going next, why markets are usually volatile ahead of November’s election, and what exactly we’re doing to profit from it all.

Click here to join us FREE.

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There are plenty of Technology stocks that are working.

You just have to look.

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End of the Bull Market

September 11, 2024

That was it?

We can just take our ball and go home now?

The A.I. story has come and gone and the recession that they've been telling us about all these years is finally here?

So this is a major top in Nvidia - ending the whole damn thing?

That's your bet?

And this massive top in Microsoft is exactly that - a historic top? One for the record books?

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2 to 100 Club (09-11-2024)

September 11, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

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Biotech Stocks Are Squeezing

September 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week, we outlined a short squeeze in Phathom Pharmaceuticals $PHAT, which has been working for us.

It doesn't seem like the market is finished squeezing the short sellers out of their biotechnology positions.

Today, we're discussing yet another biotech stock that has a ridiculously high days-to-cover ratio and short interest.

More importantly, the risk couldn't be more well-defined.

So, we're stepping up to the plate and taking another swing at a short squeeze.

 

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Massive Top In Consumer Discretionary

September 10, 2024

After Covid there was no sector that did better than Consumer Discretionary stocks.

Locking everyone down and sending them all a check to go spend, as it turns out, was great for the Consumer Discretionary sector. 

And then 2021 ended and the correction in Consumer began...

Years in the making, here is the massive top in Consumer Discretionary relative to the S&P500 that's got people talking...

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Head & Shoulders Top in Semiconductors

September 9, 2024

Did you hear about the massive top in Semiconductors?

Everyone is talking about it on the internets. So it must be true. 

Seems the easy call here to make is to say "that was it". The Semiconductor story and the bull market as we know it is over...'

One of the things they teach you in the first week of Technical Analysis kindergarten is that infamous Head & Shoulders top.

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The Minor Leaguers (09-09-2024)

September 9, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.