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It's Not Just 5 Stocks

May 7, 2023

There's an ugly rumor going around that it's only a handful of stocks holding up this market.

The people telling you that are lying to you.

Here is our Hall of Famers list which consist of the largest stocks in the United States.

All the ones on this list are less than 5% from new 52-week highs:

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The Hall of Famers (05-05-2023)

May 5, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Here’s What to Watch for in Crude

May 5, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s getting busy in the commodities space.

Live cattle posted a new all-time high last month. Precious metals are gearing up for a potential rip-roaring rally, as gold retested all-time highs yesterday. And sugar futures refuse to quit.

But when I review my commodity charts, I notice more topping formations underway than bottoming patterns.

Crude oil is front and center as the energy space – commodities and stocks – remains one of the weakest areas of the market. 

That’s why yesterday’s action in crude has my full attention…

Check out Thursday’s candle in crude oil futures:

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Will Interest Rates Follow the Bank Breakdown?

May 4, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spoken…

And not much has changed. Rates churn sideways as bonds carve out tradeable lows

The market is simply playing a new verse of the same old song.

But the tempo picks up as another antagonist enters the scene – regional banks!

Banks are the market’s weakest link, especially the smaller regional banks. They simply can’t stop falling.

To be clear: This isn’t about possible contagion risks or the next leg lower in the S&P 500. I’m more interested in the implications for interest rates.

The banking sector has captured every investor’s full attention. And regional banks have hinted at underlying problems with the rising rate environment for more than a year.

Check out the dual-pane chart of the Regional Bank ETF $KRE versus the REITs ETF $IYR ratio and the US 10-year yield $TNX:

The Most Impressive Newbie Trader I've Ever Met

May 4, 2023

You might have seen some of my tweets about an impressive trader I met earlier this week. I felt the encounter was too good to keep to myself – so here’s the full story…

I had a truly profound experience at the traders meetup I hosted in Denver on Tuesday night, where I met a new trader who completely blew me away.

Despite only having about a year of experience trading real money, this young man in his early 30s had a depth of knowledge and understanding that was truly remarkable. He carried with him a notebook filled with detailed market observations, trading strategies, post-mortems on trades, and more. No detail was left unnoticed, and his passion for trading was evident in everything he said.

What was even more impressive was his humility. He was incredibly smart, but he didn't flaunt his intelligence or try to impress anyone with his knowledge. Instead, he was genuinely curious about trading and had a thirst for knowledge that was inspiring to see.

Your Tiny Banks Don't Matter

May 4, 2023

Another day goes by and another bank that doesn't matter disappears.

This is a big deal.

In theory, investors should care about a handful of these regional banks no longer in existence.

But they don't.

In theory, there should be systemic implications to all of this, and the selling in little regional banks should spill into other, more important, parts of the market.

But it hasn't.

In theory, the inverted yield curve should precede a recession and all the money printing should ultimately cause a collapse.

But it hasn't.

And that's my point here.

At what point does anyone care?

I'm waiting for it myself.

For me, it's two things:

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The Short Report (05-03-2023)

May 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

May 3, 2023

These tiny banks have been in trouble for quite some time.

That we know.

The question has been more about whether or not the selling spills into other parts of the market.

So far it has not.

The spikes in volatility in the bond market, for example, have only resulted in volatility in these little banks.

We have not seen it spill into other asset classes, and certainly not in the majority of stocks.

Remember, the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 just closed the month of April at the highest levels in a year.

Where's the volatility?

The VIX just closed at new 52-week lows last week.

So here's the deal.

This is what Regional Banks and Community Banks look like right now: Major tops, completing and collapsing.

These are classic bullish to bearish reversal patterns:

I Wish I Could Have Been Me Sooner

May 2, 2023

I imagine it’s not uncommon for people to realize sooner or later that the person they thought they were is not at all who they really are. Perhaps not even close.

Are you being yourself?

Think hard about this. And be careful. Because your conclusion might have important ramifications beyond your day-to-day daydreaming through life. It will also likely have significant impacts on who you are as a trader and how you approach your relationship with risk – even your courtship of success (or lack thereof).

Everyone’s path to personal discovery will have its own speed limit, hills and valleys, and complements of sharp turns and extreme weather conditions.

The visibility isn’t always clear. For me, the wiper-fluid that cleaned my windows and sharpened my vision was my elimination of alcohol from my routine.

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The Swiss Franc Carves a Generational Base

May 2, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

"The bigger the base, the higher in space."

That’s how I learned it from JC.

But he wasn’t the technician who coined the adage. It was actually handed down from Lousie Yamada, who studied under the legendary Alan Shaw.

It was amazing to connect with technicians from around the world last week at the 50th Annual CMTA Symposium.

I have a great deal of gratitude for all those who made last week possible and to the founding members who paved the way for technical analysis. 

The experience was humbling, as it exposed my roots and reminded me where I come from.

It's just like the Swiss franc reminds us that observations from more than a hundred years ago continue to play out across today’s markets…

Check out the monster base in Swiss franc futures:

Sell in May & Go Away

May 2, 2023

It's that time of the year again.

I keep being told to 'Sell in May and Go Away'.

But where is it exactly that I'm supposed to go?

Investors continue to be rewarded for owning stocks as both the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 closed out April with their highest Monthly close in a year.