From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are enjoying record-breaking highs.

Dr. Copper, Papa Dow, and international equity indexes such as the FTSE 100 are making the new all-time highs list. And Bitcoin will likely join them as it climbs back above 70,000.

Yet the defiant dollar remains afloat.

Nevertheless, risk-seeking behavior, Emerging Market currencies, and interest rates imply the dollar will eventually sink.

Earlier this month, the US Treasury benchmark interest rate led the US Dollar Index $DXY in violating a year-to-date trendline. 

Here’s the US 10-year yield $TNX overlaid with DXY:

This is the video recording of the May 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

May showers and meme stocks are rolling through.

Roaring Kitty is back, leaning into his detractors with his trademark flair. 

AMC and GameStop $GME are ripping. Gold mining stocks are picking up the pace. And the US dollar…

Surprisingly, it’s still holding above former support.

The 105 - 104.75 area marks the spot for the US Dollar Index $DXY: 

A decisive close below that key polarity zone places the dollar back in the box, giving stock market bulls free rein.

Yet investors don’t seem to care about the greenback. 

How's this messy market treating you?

Are you happy the market is a mess? Or do you find it frustrating?

Keep in mind, the S&P500 is still at the same price it was 2 months ago.

Both the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are still at the same prices they were back in February.

We're almost half way through May.

The Technology Index, which is the largest component of the S&P500 (30%) and has the largest weighting in the Nasdaq100 (50%), is still where it was back in January.

Again we're half way through May!

Meanwhile, don't forget about the Small-cap Russell2000 that's hilariously still stuck below where it was way back in December.

The Consumer Discretionary Index and Dow Jones Transportation Average are also down for the year.

That's the market we're in.

Some people keep pretending that this year is just like last year.

But I cheated. I actually looked at the data. So I know better.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Buyers are coming to the dollar’s rescue following last week’s drop.

But I’m still bearish. 

Of course, none of that matters if the US Dollar Index $DXY continues to rally and these trade setups fail to trigger entry signals.

Here’s a quick look at the DXY finding support at a critical retracement level:

It’s a logical area for dollar bulls to take a stand as a shelf of former highs act as support.

However, crude oil's slide below a similar shelf of former highs raises doubts about a sustained bullish defense. 

What's on your mind these days?

I'll tell you what I'm thinking about.

I'm used to a market where stocks struggle when the US Dollar are US rates are rising. And that's what we've seen all year.

And while the data certainly points to a market of stocks that have been grinding mostly sideways over the past few months, stocks haven't done nearly as bad as you'd think, considering just how strong the Dollar has been and how much rates have risen.

So the question for me is whether these consolidations are going to resolve higher or lower?

And what the implications might be....

A lower resolution here could be a massive tailwind for stocks.

Remember, during Election years, the market tends to bottom in May ahead of a very strong summer, particularly when there is an incumbent candidate.

If these resolutions are, in fact, to the downside, then that's exactly what I would expect to see happen:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Japanese government isn’t playing games.

Currency crisis or not, Tokyo is willing to defend the yen in the open market. It's proven this multiple times over the past three years, and today’s FOMC-related volatility will likely test its resolve. 

Considering previous yen-buying interventions, the dollar, interest rates, and the dollar-yen pair could be headed lower in the coming months.

Before we dive into the yen, here's a quick update on the action in the euro and pound.

The euro retested its breakdown level from earlier this month, forming a bear flag:

A close below 1.06 completes the flag pattern and sets a rough downside objective of 1.0450.

The month isn't over yet but I peaked.

How many assets can you think of that have been positive every single month this year?

Where do you find the most consistent leadership?

Is it in Technology?

No. Tech is down over 4.5% the past 2 months.

Is it Consumer Discretionary?

Nope. It's down 2 months in a row, falling almost 3%.

The answer is the US Dollar and Crude Oil Futures.

As we enter the final day of April, these 2 assets have been positive every month so far in 2024.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Did you see the candlestick in the Mexican peso last Friday?

It was all wick!

The way I learned it, you want to trade in the opposite direction of blow-offs like this. 

That means betting on a stronger peso and an end to the stock market correction.

Check out the XXXL lower shadow in the Mexican peso futures (denominated in USD):

Last Friday’s intraday swing spanned six percent and registered the highest single-day ATR reading since March 2020.

Despite the earth-shattering volatility, the bulls prevailed. That’s the critical lesson from last week’s action: The bulls immediately repaired the damage. 

This is the video recording of the April 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed these trends driving the markets?

Commodities are ripping. The energy sector is outperforming. Interest rates are climbing while US treasury bonds fall apart…  

Of course, we can’t forget about the US dollar’s rally.

I continue to err in the direction of these underlying trends. But the dollar rally will likely run out of gas soon…

Check out the US Dollar Index $DXY printing its highest level since November. 

The disaster for the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues.

Yesterday the Dow closed at a new 52-week low, priced in "Real" Money.

When you look at the Dow priced in Fiat Currency, it's also acting weak, actually DOWN since the start of February.

Here's what that looks like: