The coal industry is one of the most under-the-radar ponds to fish in.
Investors write it off because "clean energy" will displace the industry. While this is likely true, we think it will take far longer than most expect.
In the meantime, this extreme mispositioning is our opportunity to profit.
You would have made a fortune if you bought these stocks at the depths of the COVID crash. Far more than if you purchased the hottest "work from home" stock.
These stocks had their best day in years last summer after a major Australian coal mine caught fire and halted production.
While we haven't seen the upside follow-through we anticipated, the setup looks ripe for the bulls to take control.
Let's dive into the charts.
Our Coal Index is testing a key level of interest:
Our Coal Index rallied from 5 to 40 from 2020 to 2022, making it the best industry group during the post-COVID bull market.
Since then, it has churned sideways in a well-deserved digestion of gains.
We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.
However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.
Welcome to TheJunior Hall of Famers.
This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.
Crude oil is setting up for a big move, and almost nobody is paying attention. In fact, sentiment in the energy trade couldn’t be more bearish right now. Everyone hates it, everyone.
As Strazza said on our call yesterday, “Even Warren Buffett is losing money on this one.” That’s the vibe.
XLE keeps dropping, the bearish sentiment intensifies, yet producers are stepping in and buying. That’s a bullish signal if I’ve ever seen one.
There are plenty of reasons to start liking energy here, especially when headlines like these are flying under the radar of most U.S. investors.
Sure, this crisis might trigger a short term pop, but I’m not in it for a flash move, I’m looking for a trend.
And the pieces for a sustainable breakout are falling into place.
Let’s talk about seasonality. Most people think energy’s best season is summer. Makes sense, right? But the data tells a different story. Energy peaks in the summer, then drifts into bearish seasonals, until now.
The best short squeezes happen when sentiment is thoroughly washed out, and it's difficult to picture a scenario where things can get worse.
This is the playbook we've followed for some of our best trades this cycle. Just look at how we nailed the bottoms in Carvana and Coinbase in late 2022.
We think Walgreens Boots Alliance is setting up for a similar face-ripping rally like those mentioned above, and here's why:
Walgreens Boots Alliance was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2018 and replaced General Electric. Less than 6 years later and over 60% lower, the eggheads at S&P Dow Jones Indices decided to give WBA the boot.
This removal coincided with the resolution of a multi-decade distribution pattern and an additional 60% downside in the following months.
President-elect Donald Trump rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange this week, and it was reminiscent of the times when Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush went to the NYSE years ago.
The infamous Reagan quote, "We're going to turn the bull loose," immediately came to mind.
Considering that, it seems appropriate to talk about bulls today because of their positive correlation to economic growth.
Live cattle futures and bond yields have danced together for decades:
As you can see, cattle futures and bond yields are structurally similar but sometimes diverge from one another. In the lower pane, we've included the 200-day rolling correlation to highlight the past (and current) divergences in price.
The biggest problem with correlation analysis is that it doesn't tell us which direction the lines will likely go next.
However, the primary trends have been higher since the 2020 low, and the odds favor that the primary uptrends will eventually reassert themselves.
And we think that's currently underway, with live cattle futures closing this week at the highest price in history.
Speculative technology stocks have been mooning in recent weeks. Many of these stocks have rallied over 100% in the last month alone.
Today, we're outlining a technology stock that rallied 700% in half a year after pivoting from blockchain infrastructure to high-performance computing. In other words, they pivoted from crypto to AI.
After consolidating for over a year, the stock put the finishing touches on a textbook basing pattern last week and is beginning a fresh leg higher.
But it's not just the chart that has us excited... the short sellers have gotten way too greedy, and we're going to exploit their weakness.
The New York Stock Exchange held its annual Tree Lighting Event this week. It was spectacular, as always.
But we're not here to talk about pine trees or LED lights. We're here to talk about commodities.
The NYSE has an array of vehicles to trade, most being equities.
They also have several commodity funds, which happen to offer asymmetric risk versus reward opportunities at current levels. Let's talk about them.
Our first setup is the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund $DBA:
The top five holdings are cocoa (14.8%), coffee (13%), live cattle (11.9%), sugar (11.6%), and corn (11.4%), several of which we've recently discussed.