I'm used to a market where stocks struggle when the US Dollar are US rates are rising. And that's what we've seen all year.
And while the data certainly points to a market of stocks that have been grinding mostly sideways over the past few months, stocks haven't done nearly as bad as you'd think, considering just how strong the Dollar has been and how much rates have risen.
So the question for me is whether these consolidations are going to resolve higher or lower?
And what the implications might be....
A lower resolution here could be a massive tailwind for stocks.
Remember, during Election years, the market tends to bottom in May ahead of a very strong summer, particularly when there is an incumbent candidate.
If these resolutions are, in fact, to the downside, then that's exactly what I would expect to see happen:
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Uber and Paypal.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
We held our May Monthly Strategy Session earlier in the week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos
The largest insider buy on today's list comes via two Form 4 filings by Liam K. Griffin, chief executive officer and president of Skyworks Solutions $SWKS.
Griffin reported a total purchase of roughly $1 million in SWKS shares.
Markets are a mess. They've been a mess. And this year is very different than last year.
Look at the Equally-weighted S&P500 and Nasdaq100.
While these are certainly good overall gauges for the health of the US Stock market, always, in this particular environment they are even more representative of what's going on out there.
I know I've already said it a lot over the past few months, but for those people in the back who may not be able to hear so well...
THIS YEAR IS NOT ANYTHING LIKE LAST YEAR.
The strategies that worked so well throughout 2023 are not the ones working this year.
Last year's leaders are some of the worst stocks in 2024.
The leaders in 2024, in many cases, were some of the worst sectors in 2023.
It's not bad or good. Better or worse. It's just different.
The better you get at adapting to the current environment, the fewer headaches you're going to have.
I'm 42 years old. I've been doing this for over 2 decades.
I have 3 kids.
Do you think I need more headaches at this point in my life? Or fewer?
And so that's why we've adapted our strategies to the current market, instead of trying to go to the beach in the winter, or wear a raincoat on a beautiful sunny day, like many investors like to do because they haven't bothered to check the weather.
