One thing we want to watch out for is this recent relative strength in Consumer Staples. I don't think it's necessarily time to sound the alarm just yet, but continued relative strength out of this group is not consistent with higher stock prices.
Now, a couple of weeks doesn't make a trend. But it is curious to see this one not confirming the new lows that the rest of them are putting in:
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The market continues to fire on all cylinders right now. Last week's gains were nothing but a continuation of the same resiliency and momentum we've come to expect from risk assets over the last year.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
One lesson you learn pretty quickly as a market analyst is that not all assets are created equal.
Each and every financial instrument carries its own unique bundle of nuances... from a stocks' beta or systematic volatility as well as its residual risk, to the fee structure and rebalancing methodology of an exchange-traded fund or note, to the settlement and delivery procedures governing futures contracts.
All of these things impact the behavior and performance of these various markets.
Today, we're going to focus specifically on the inner workings of International Country ETFs and the way they are impacted by the currency component inherent in these vehicles.
As most of you know, we're big on our scans here at All Star Charts. And believe it or not, selloffs are actually some of the best times to scan for strength.
While our parameters will vary based on the market backdrop, there are two main things we almost alwaysfocus on when scanning for strong stocks in anyenvironment.
First and foremost, we're always looking for leadership. As many of you know, I'm a big advocate of fishing in the right places. Whether it's secret spots on the gulf stream or areas of markets showing strength, it's the same strategy... We want to position ourselves for the best catch.
We also want to limit our risk in case we're wrong. For us, this is as simple as betting only on those setups with clearly defined risk/rewards that are skewed heavily in our favor.
In other words, if we're right, we book hefty profits. On the other hand, if we're wrong, we'll know quickly and be out with minimal damage, and onto the next opportunity.
In our continued effort to identify individual equities that fit within our larger Macro thesis, we recently rolled out our latest bottoms-up scan: "The Minor Leaguers."
We write a post every other week where we outline some of our favorite setups from this universe of stocks.
We've already had some great trades come out of this column and couldn't be happier about the early feedback.
Moving forward, we'll be rotating this column with "Under The Hood" each week.
In order to make it onto our Minor League list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.
Then, we simply sort the stocks by their percentage from new highs. Easy done.
Small-Caps have been outperforming the large-cap indexes by a mile so far this year.
Since January 1st, the S&P Small-Cap 600 is up roughly 25%, compared with just a 5% gain for the S&P 500, and 0% for the Nasdaq 100.
This leadership is showing no signs of slowing, as they once again led the market back to fresh all-time highs this week after a brief and shallow reset.
Not only has the momentum behind this move been astounding, but the S&P Small-Cap 600 just experienced another significant breadth thrust, this time in its percentage of new 52-week highs.
Let's take a quick look at these developments and what they mean for the group going forward.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
Markets never operate in a static manner. Instead, markets are dynamic and remain in a natural and constant state of flux.
In knowing this, we must always remain flexible and aware of the changing conditions and developments taking place around us. We pride ourselves on our ability to evolve and adapt to these changes in market structure and are never dogmatic in our approach.
For the last decade, US large-cap growth has been where the alpha is, and derivatives of this theme like large over small, stocks over commodities, and US over international have been very powerful relative trends. We know this well because we've been leaning on them for a long time...
The universe comprises several solar systems- big and small. Similarly, the market comprises several conglomerates- big and small. We're back with another such conglomerate that we'd like to look at today- Bajaj Group.
One of the oldest and most reputable conglomerates of India, the Bajaj Group has been instrumental in generating great returns for investors across the board over the years.
Let's take a look at what the charts have to say.
We created an equally weighted custom index of the Bajaj Group constituents. A big base breakout can be seen here as is the case with several charts in the market. The Bajaj Group seems to have moved out of a four-year base and looks good for another leg of the rally.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
Now let’s take a look at individual stocks and where they stand at present.
Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.