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The Adani Group Solar System

February 10, 2021

The universe comprises several solar systems- big and small. Similarly, the market comprises of several conglomerates- big and small. One such conglomerate that we'd like to look at today is the Adani Group.

It is fit to call the Adani Group a solar system since there have been times in the past when these stocks have rallied despite a broader market correction. So where are these stocks headed and what is our view of the constituents of this group going forward?

Let's take a look at the charts.

We created an equally weighted custom index of the Adani Group constituents. It takes one cursory glance at this chart to see that this group has been on a tear since the dip in March 2020. With only minor corrections halting these stocks from time to time, the returns generated by this group have been handsome indeed.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

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Introducing... Fade The Street

February 9, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

We've enjoyed a ton of success with the bottoms-up scans and the columns they've inspired.

We absolutely love our scans! When we combine them with our traditional top-down approach, they make it almost impossible to miss key market themes.

In fact, we've launched four columns around these scans since last year -- and we have many more that we only run internally.

Today, we're sharing one with you. We call it "Fade The Street," and it's one of my personal favorites.

The scan leverages data from sell-side analysts including their buy/sell ratings and price targets in order to identify stocks with the potential to become the market's next big winners.

How do we do this? Simple...

We scan for top-performing stocks that happen to be some of the most-hated and out-of-favor names on the street. Basically, we're looking for names that analysts have gotten wrong - or at the very least, are trending against their respective ratings.

Stocks @ New Highs + Fear @ New Highs = Bullish

February 9, 2021

I was away from the office last week with the team, but I was still able to pop into BNN Bloomberg for a quick hit.

We discussed the fact that fear among investors is off the charts, stocks are in uptrends and breadth is expanding. I think the beginning of the new Commodities Supercycle is bullish for stocks and just another tailwind to take them higher.

If the tv anchors think I'm making a bold call by suggesting that stocks in uptrends will go higher, then we're probably not near a top.

Here's the interview in full:

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RPP Report: Review. Preview. Profit. (02-08-2021)

February 8, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

In last week's report, we played "devil's advocate" and laid out some of the more bearish developments we could find out there.

But all-in-all, the market is still providing bears less room to make a sound argument. We continue to find that any bearish evidence is primarily isolated to shorter timeframes... and even then, still overwhelmed by the abundance of bullish data points.

Auto Sector: Deep Dive

February 8, 2021

Nifty Auto has been on our radar for quite some time now. When Nifty50 was under short term pressure, Nifty Auto was one of the sectors that stood out as a strong performer.

With the ensuing move in the Auto stocks, we thought of doing a deep dive into this sector to see if we could find some actionable setups.

The Auto sector has closed comfortably above the resistance level of 10,400 effectively absorbing overhead supply at these levels. In the weeks and months ahead, this sector could make a dash towards the level of 12,110. The strong bullish momentum regime indicated by RSI alludes to the same view.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Relatively speaking, Nifty Auto has broken out of its resistance zone and is ready for the next leg of the rally.

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Under The Hood (02-05-2021)

February 7, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ending February 5, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.

In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.

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Will Pot Stocks Finally Live Up To The Hype?

February 6, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Marijuana stocks have been smoking hot over the trailing quarter, with the Alternative Harvest Marijuana ETF $MJ more than doubling since the election on November 3rd.

Considering this new leadership role over the near-term, today we're going to do a follow-up on our last deep dive into the space, which we published last fall.

Back then, we were simply looking for a bottom and mean reversion move higher, which we got... Now, with the industry making new highs, we want to see how things are looking on both an absolute and relative basis.

And as always, we'll check in on some of our past trades in the space and highlight today's strongest stocks, along with trade setups skewed in our favor that we want to use to express our bullish thesis.

Before we get into the weeds, let’s start at the industry level with the Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ).

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Is It Finally Commodities Time To Shine?

February 5, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In a post last month JC discussed the recent strength in Commodities and posed the following question...

If the CRB Index is above its 2016 lows and Crude Oil is above all those former lows from the past decade, how can we be bearish commodities?

Over the last few quarters, we've seen more and more intermarket relationships make a significant shift in favor of risk-assets.

Many are showing early signs of a structural reversal and others simply accelerating in the direction of their underlying trend.

Elephants On The Move

February 4, 2021

There is a big difference between those who follow the market on a daily basis and those who take a quick glance at it once in a while. One category tracks moves for short term trades and the other looks out for long term investments.

What catches the attention of both these categories simultaneously though?

When the top two gainers of the day in Nifty50 go by the ticker names of SBIN and ITC.

This is not a frequent phenomenon and hence attracts more eyeballs upon occurrence.

Read on to know more.

SBI and ITC are like the elephants of the jungle - they move when they have to but stay under the radar for the most part. These are evergreen names that have the good fortune of being held in high standards in the eyes of the market, regardless of market conditions.

Ask around for long term investment tips, and all analysts big and small manage to throw these two names in the mix pretty often.

But why are we focusing on these names?

Has anything changed? Maybe.

Are we observing something new in the price action? Maybe.

 

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People Are Scared Of Their Own Shadow

February 3, 2021

Investors are so scared. They don't want to get burned. They've missed out on one of the greatest stock market rallies in history. They think it's too late for them to be buying stocks.

Here's the thing. I think we've barely even gotten started. This is the beginning, not the end.

Last week the Volatility Index saw its highest reading ever with the S&P500 within 5% of new all-time highs.

When people buy insurance at a faster rate than ever before, does that normally happen just before everyone is thankful they had that insurance? Or does that traditionally occur just after the disaster when it's not necessary anymore?

How funny is it that Saturday Night Live mentioned that the stock market is not working on 3 separate skits in the same episode last weekend?

Hilarious.

What Intermarket Signals Suggest For Interest Rates

February 3, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

They say the Bond Market is where the smart money is. Maybe it is. I have no idea.

What I do know is that it's where a lot of the smart information is.

Due to the diversity among credit instruments, there is a swath of unique data that we can use not just for Bond prices and Interest Rates but also to glean insight into other asset classes.

I'm talking about things like TIPS for inflation expectations and Emerging Market or High Yield Bonds to analyze risk-appetite for other assets such as the stock market.

Alpha has been in Equities and risk-assets for a while now. As such, we haven't needed to discuss bonds from a portfolio perspective... but that doesn't mean we aren't paying close attention to these assets.

The Bond Market is overflowing with information. We'd be foolish to neglect it.

Short-Term Trend Looking Up

February 2, 2021

Nifty 50 witnessed a strong move of 4.74% on Monday as the index bounced back from lows to close near the high of the day. Does this change the way we look at the short-term trend in the market?

Read on to know more.