Traders often joke that there's support at Zero. And then Crude Oil Futures traded negative and we threw everything we thought we knew out the window. Where was that in your model?
Anyway, this is the first thing that comes to mind when I think of the garbage that is, GE.
Next to Wells Fargo, this might be one of the worst companies on earth. It may actually be somehow worse. And by company, I don't care what's going on behind the scenes or who works there. I'm referring specifically to the stock, which is all that matters to us.
We're looking at 2 plots, the price itself going back several decades, and the relative strength (or weakness, in this case), compared to the S&P500. Notice how after the peak in 2000, the next 2 peaks (where US Stocks moved on to new all-time highs), $GE put in lower highs. Also look at the relative strength line breaking to all-time lows:
Everything in life is relative. In markets, it works the same way.
"How could someone possibly want to own these bonds that pay negative yields"?
Well, what's the alternative? Crashing stocks? Collapsing energy commodities? It's all relative.
In my experience, when assets are in strong uptrends, some might call those "bull markets", they don't just do well on an absolute basis, but they also tend to outperform their alternatives. In the case of stocks, you have Bonds and Gold that are two other very popular places to allocate capital.
The Chart of the Week has to be the Nasdaq 100 breaking out of a multi-year base relative to US Treasury Bonds (Blue Line). I also included the Nasdaq relative to Gold, which has yet to complete this basing period (Black Line):
The Top/Down approach to markets is at the core of what we do at All Star Charts. That means starting at the asset class level and peeling back each layer to refine our view of the smaller components that make up that asset class. With each new layer, we discover information that helps us form our weight of the evidence conclusion.
That brings us to our new weekly column, The Top/Down Take, where we hope to educate readers on how we execute this process and highlight its value through the analysis of popular stocks.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the relative strength trends at play and preview some of the things we're watching in order to profit in the current market environment.
This week, we're going to highlight the continued outperformance from offensive assets as well as the weakness we're starting to see from many defensive assets. This kind of action continues to suggest increasing risk-appetite and is supportive of higher prices within Equity and Commodity Markets.
The words "Support" and "Resistance" get thrown around a lot. In most cases, it's stated as fact, "This level is resistance", or "There is support at that price". What is important to remember, however, is that these are only "Potential levels" of support and resistance. We may have evidence suggesting there could be overhead supply near a certain price, but we won't know for sure until after the fact.
Today I want to talk about how many Indexes in the U.S. are approaching "Potential" Resistance.
Let's take a step back and define what that actually means. Resistance is when there is an overwhelming amount of selling pressure vs buying pressure. There are more sellers, than buyers (or as the smart ass in the corner will mention, it could be one giant seller and not necessarily more of them, but I digress). Bottom line is, that Resistance is the price where there is more supply for an asset than there is demand for it.
The first obvious one is the S&P500 getting back to its February highs:
Healthcare stocks are breaking out to their highest levels in history. This isn't something where we're waiting for them to recover. We're betting that this is actually just the beginning. Healthcare stocks are going a lot higher if the S&P500 is going to 4000. That's the bet we're making.
Here is the Healthcare Index Fund $XLV closing at back-to-back all-time highs the past 2 weeks. I think there's another 14% if upside from here:
Welcome to this week's edition of "Under The Hood." You can read more about the column here.
What we do is analyze the most popular Robinhood stocks over the trailing week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We have some new additions coming for how we generate the list of most popular names, which we'll explain more each week as we add new data sets. This is a really exciting time for us. There are so many new data sources popping up so it's really just our responsibility to organize it to where it only tells us exactly what we want: An unusual increased level of interest for an asset.
Last night we held a Happy Hour With Traders and discussed market internals and breadth with some of the best Technicians in the business. We focused mainly on the more popular aggregate breadth indicators such as the percentage of new highs and lows, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day, and so on.
We also talked a bit about our process for analyzing breadth on a more granular level, which is simply by looking at our universe of indexes, sectors, industry groups, and individual stocks each week. When we run our scans and look at the individual charts themselves, we continue to see a higher number of new highs and bullish momentum characteristics.
This is evidence of improving breadth.
This week's Mystery Chart was one of the latest Industry Groups we noticed making fresh all-time highs. In this post, we'll discuss the chart and offer some trade ideas in some of the groups' strongest components.
It's always fun chatting with Catherine over at BNN Bloomberg. She has the uncanny ability of getting me on her show just at the right time! In February, I explained very clearly why we were raising cash (the week before the biggest market crash ever), and then in early July I was screaming on television to buy stocks aggressively, just before a slew of new sectors started breaking out to the upside.
Today, I have a similar bullish view. This is a market that is rewarding us for buying stocks. That's the bottom line. And we don't see any evidence of that changing yet. Catherine also asked me about the Bond Market and I explained why I think rates go higher.
We like the have fun with these. Life is short. I hope you enjoy it!