For the longest time, investors in the United States have been rewarded for their home country bias and their overexposure to large-caps and growth stocks.
The secular trend of underperformance from international equities relative to the United States commenced over 15 years ago. Many investors have simply never seen stocks outside the US outperform over any material timeframe.
It's not a matter of impossibility; rather, our recency bias tends to mistake unfamiliarity for the extraordinary.
A regime of sustained value outperformance isn't isolated to the realm of fantasy. It was only last year that holding growth over value was nothing short of opportunity cost, while international equities outpaced their US counterparts through Q4 and into the new year.
Recently, Meb Faber joined us on the morning show, where he discussed the topic of international investing. He argued that this is the best time in history to make the value trade, both domestically and internationally.
We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.
However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.
Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.
This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if the price is rising. That's good enough for us.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.
It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
The Nasdaq100 index just went out at the highest levels in history relative to the much broader Russell3000 Index.
Technology represents about 50% of the Nasdaq100, with Apple's weighting coming in at 11% of the index and Microsoft currently at just over 10%.
But the Nasdaq100 is a good representation of these mega-cap names, because Amazon, Google, Meta and Tesla all carry huge weightings. Remember, none of these stocks are in the Tech Index.
So the Nasdaq100 broadens it out to what most people consider "Tech".
Here's the QQQ hitting new all-time highs relative to Russell3000:
Sometimes investors forget that there are 500+ stocks in the S&P500, 30 stocks in the DJ Industrial Avg and approximately 3000 stocks in the Russell3000.
This is all free and public information.
But still, investors forget, especially during times when it's most important to remember.
That's just human nature.
We take things for granted until we need them the most.
This quarter has been a prime example.
You see, while the S&P500 and other indexes were making new lows last month, the list of stocks making new lows had already peaked in early October.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.