This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Equites Suggest Rates Roll
It’s not just commodities and the bond market that are disagreeing with the action from yields these days. We're not getting confirmation from the stock market either. The Equities For Rising Rates ETF (EQRR) always offers excellent information to either support or contradict what we’re seeing from the bond market. When we overlay EQRR with the US 10-Year Yield (TNX), they look almost identical.
What this chart tells us is that the stocks that tend to do well in a rising rate environment could not hold their former highs and are now stuck below overhead supply. This lack of confirmation supports our outlook for a pause and some corrective action from yields in the near future.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
So far, 2022 has been a historic year. That theme intensified during the second quarter, which is now in the books.
The bond market is working on one of its worst years on record. The S&P 500 just posted its worst quarterly return since 1970 with the index down more than 16% from January through March.
Bitcoin finished the quarter with its second-worst return in its short history. And now the energy sector – the market’s leader this year – just posted its third-worst monthly return since the 1990s.
The operative words here are “worst” and “return.”
That’s 2022 in a nutshell. The bears are in complete control.
However, one area that has held up through all this is commodities. It was the best-performing asset class in 2021, and it’s the only one to close the first half of 2022 in the green.
Let’s note that the first quarter of 2022 was far different from the second. And before we go running to commodities for safety, let’s put the group’s recent performance in perspective.
Neil Gagnon, the CEO of Gagnon Advisors LLC, revealed a purchase of approximately 43,200 shares in the small-cap software company SecureWorks Corp $SCWX.
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as the Hall of Famers, the Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
Patrick S. Barrett, executive vice-president and CFO of OceanFirst Financial Corp $OCFC, revealed a purchase of approximately 10,500 shares in his own stock.
