From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our February Monthly Strategy Session Tuesday night. Premium Members can access and re-watch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The path of least resistance is higher for yields, as the market continues to punish investors for buying bonds. 

As long as that’s the case, we want to look for short opportunities when approaching the bond market.

Since the shorter end of the curve has ripped higher, the moves in these contracts and ETFs are extended. They simply don't offer favorable risk/reward trade setups at current levels.

We’re better off looking for ways to play rising yields further out on the curve in this environment. 

We’re going to discuss how to do just that by covering a few charts that are setting up on the short side.

First up is the 30-year Treasury bond futures:

T-bonds are carving out a multi-year head-and-shoulders top above their pivot lows from last March.

We want to sell weakness on a decisive break below the neckline and those former lows at 153’07, targeting the 2019 lows around 136’16.

We can only be short on a...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities and cyclical assets have remained resilient, defying headwinds from the US dollar for nearly a year. 

But the US Dollar Index $DXY is sliding lower as evidence mounts in favor of further weakness…

Could those headwinds soon fade away?

Today, we’re going to highlight some critical developments and discuss what they mean for the US dollar, stocks, and commodities in the weeks and months ahead.

Let’s dive in!

First is a chart of the US Dollar Index $DXY:

Its inability to hold above the November 2021 highs screams "failed breakout!"

After undercutting these former highs on Monday, we saw some downside follow-through on Tuesday. Two data points supporting a bearish resolution are commitment of traders (COT) positioning and momentum.

In the middle pane, we’ve highlighted commercial hedgers holding a stretched net short position...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest “Minor Leaguers” report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

We recently decided to expand our universe to include some mid-caps…

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B. That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

The way we did this is simple…

To make the cut for our new Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B. And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component–it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our macro universe was red as 64% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.33%.
• US 10-Year Yield $TNX was the winner this week, closing about 4bps higher at 1.78%.
• The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -10.39%.
• There was a 4% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 30%.
• 53% of our macro list made fresh 4-week lows, 34% made new 13-...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

If you’re searching for strength, look no further than commodities!

With risk assets coming under increasing pressure, the strength from commodities and commodity-related stocks stands out that much more. Except for rates, it’s the only thing the bulls have left.

When we look beneath the surface, so far, the story centers around energy – whether we’re talking about crude oil printing fresh seven-year highs or Chevron Corp. $CVX breaking out of a multi-year base to new all-time highs.

Energy is -- and has been --  re-asserting itself as the next dominant leadership group. 

But unlike the stock market -- where energy is the only group working -- we’re seeing broad participation within the commodities market.

In fact, there are still plenty of pockets of strength we want to be buying.

Today, we’re going to highlight one of those areas by outlining a trade setup in soybean...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

And here’s how we arrived at it:

• We filtered out any stocks that are below their May 10, 2021, high, which is...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley  

The Federal Reserve is doing its best to prepare the market for what is expected to be a year of rate hikes. But investors aren’t exactly enthusiastic about this outlook, as stocks came under further pressure following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee announcement.

The bond market is also offering some valuable information again. And considering the recent volatility, it’s more important than ever to listen closely.

When we think about bonds, credit spreads are always top of mind, as they’re a great barometer of market health. When there's stress on risk assets, it shows up in credit spreads. 

When analyzing credit spreads, all we’re doing is measuring the difference in yield between a Treasury (the safest bet) and a corporate bond (riskier asset) of the same maturity. If these spreads begin to widen, it’s usually problematic for equities.

We can also study these relationships by comparing the bond prices themselves, instead of their yields. One of our favorite ways to do this is...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are on the ropes after taking a series of heavy hits last week.

Equities have been a sea of red across the board as selling pressure broadens out. Growth continues to collapse, and even many of the latest leadership groups –  like banks – are failing to hold their breakouts.

When we look inside the stock market, there's certainly a bear market feel to the price action in recent weeks. For example, offensive areas are being sold indiscriminately while defensive sectors make new relative highs. 

But when we look outside the stock market, the story is very different. Despite the volatility, we’re still not seeing much of a bid in traditional safe-haven assets.

In today’s post, we’ll focus on the Japanese yen. But it’s the same story for gold and Treasuries.

Here is a look at all three. From top to bottom, this is the Gold ETF $GLD, the US Treasuries ETF $IEF, and the Japanese yen $JPY:

...