When I look at what’s working in this market, precious metals—specifically gold—stand out.

Gold isn’t just a few dollars off all-time highs—it’s breaking out of a base relative to stocks.

And when I see this, I can’t help but wonder… When does silver get its turn?

History tells us how this usually plays out. Gold moves first, then silver comes to life.

Right now, silver is sitting where gold was last year, just before it started an epic run.

If there’s a moment and place for a catch-up trade, this is it.

And with silver’s higher beta, when it moves, it really moves.

I think we’re heading back to 50.

The miners are already on the move, setting up nicely.

Sellers have dominated the tape for the past several weeks.

Any bid for stocks since we rolled over in February has been weak and short-lived.

At the same time, we are more than due for a serious bounce.

Some sentiment metrics are at wash-out levels. 

Put volume is at record highs.

US stock indexes are deeply oversold. 

In the case of Nasdaq 100 futures, this is worse than the pandemic lows from 2020. 

But oversold can always get more oversold.

And when it comes to sentiment data, there is simply no signal without confirmation from price.

So, I just gotta see it at this point. 

A rebound rally is surely coming, but how much selling will happen first? And how good will it be?

There definitely won’t be a meaningful bounce until we string together some consecutive up days. We haven’t seen back-to-back green candles in the S&P since its peak in February. 

Literally, zero bullish follow-through in almost a month. That needs to change for markets to make a...

There’s no sugar-coating it—recent weeks have been rough in my account.

Call it a pullback, a correction, or a bear market—whatever label you prefer, the selloff in U.S. growth stocks hasn’t spared me. And let’s be honest: Watching account equity shrink isn’t fun. Not even a little.

But one thing that helps me stay grounded through market swings—both up and down—is tracking my Closed Trades Performance. It’s nothing fancy, just a simple spreadsheet with four columns:

• Date Closed

• Ticker

• Net Gain/Loss

• Running Total

That last column, “Running Total,” continuously adds up my net dollar gains and losses as I close trades.

The key benefit? It shifts my focus away from open equity swings in positions I haven’t closed yet. Any old-school futures trend follower will tell you: open profits aren’t yours until you close the trade. I learned this trick from my friend Peter Brandt, and it has been invaluable for my mindset.

Why This Helps My Trading Psychology

By focusing only on closed trades, two...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for today's Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

Today's trade is one of those setups where if the bulls can't stick this landing (making it a good buy), then it's goodbye and good night.

I'm betting on the latter. But being mindful that it could in fact be a good time to buy for those brave enough to step in, I'll be getting short with a defined risk put debit spread.

This post explains what members of my Retail Roundup+ get with their membership.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled ITB to April options
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you're not a member, sign up here.

Crude oil has been trading in lock-step with the US Dollar Index all cycle. 

And believe it or not, the dollar has been hit even harder than the stock market lately. DXY is down about 7% in two months.

I want to bet on an oversold bounce in US dollars, and I don’t think there is a better way to do it than getting long oil.

Here’s crude oil futures catching a bid at the lower bounds of a multi-year range:

And here’s our vehicle, the United States Oil Fund $USO:

Notice our volatility squeeze indicator crossing up in the bottom pane.

I think we’re in for a killer rebound...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Oracle $ORCL, one of this cycle's AI darlings, reported earnings on Monday after the market closed.

It didn't go well...

The company reported a 6% year-over-year revenue increase. This was led by an astonishing 51% increase in its infrastructure as a service segment revenue.

Despite this tremendous growth, the market has already priced it in, and the reported numbers weren't enough to appease investors.

In addition, they issued weaker-than-expected forward guidance. This was like adding fuel to a forest fire.

*click the image to enlarge it

Oracle reported a double miss for the 2nd consecutive quarter and was punished for it. Shares fell 3.10%, with a reaction score of -0.28.

Intra-day, the stock was down more than 7%. It was nasty!

The market has consistently been punishing the stock for its earnings reports. 7 of the last 11 earnings reports have resulted in lower share prices.

This company is doing something wrong...

If ORCL is below 146, the path of least resistance is lower for the foreseeable future...

Activity in Washington, D.C., tops today’s list.

📌 The standout insider move comes from MicroStrategy $MSTR, where Rep. Neal Dunn of Florida disclosed a purchase in an amount between $15,000 and $50,000.

With governments eyeing Bitcoin for strategic reserves, this could be a long-term play—regardless of the near-term chop in crypto.

This marks the second MSTR purchase we’ve seen by lawmakers in recent days. Rep. Jefferson Shreve of Indiana reported a MSTR purchase of $15,000 to $50,000 on March 10.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 11, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 New Fortress Energy $NFE CEO Wes Edens filed a Form 4 filing revealing a purchase of $1.75 million.

When top brass invests that heavily, it’s a sign of...

Today's number is... -2.3%

The average stock in the S&P 500 has dropped by -2.3% year-to-date.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500 year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: In just 14 trading days, the S&P 500 has declined by 9.31% from its all-time highs and is now down 5.26% year-to-date. Along with this correction, the average stock in the S&P 500 is currently showing a negative year-to-date return - which is down -2.3%.

Given the recent increase in market volatility, there are still pockets of strength, with 217 stocks in the S&P 500 outperforming the index with a positive return year-to-date.

However, most of these outperforming stocks come from sectors typically categorized as defensive. These defensive sectors are where money rotates into when stocks are under...

This table captures the longer-term drift in the relative performance of the U.S. sectors as markets accelerate their selloff.

You can see groups like Communications $XLC continue to show leadership, while Consumer Discretionary $XLY, which was on the top, has dramatically fallen in recent weeks.

We've been pointing to this breakout level in XLY; last week we said buyers should come in and defend this breakout.

Well, they failed, rather spectacularly...

It's not just Amazon $AMZN or Tesla $TSLA dragging this ETF lower, it's a sector-wide story right now.

The Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF $RSPD also failed to break above its prior cycle highs.

Retail stocks are undoubtedly being dragged lower because of this, but retail-expert Jeff Macke knows how to turn that weakness into an opportunity.

Tomorrow, Jeff’s breaking down which retail names are still worth buying — and which ones to stay far away from....

A couple of weeks ago, the analyst team and I put together what we called a “bearish checklist”.

We spent an hour breaking down what needs to happen for the bull market to end.

I’ve talked about a bunch of these key levels in recent posts.

From red flags in credit spreads to the Mag 7 violating a confluence of support, to fewer uptrends holding up beneath the surface.

But there is one more chart I need to share with you—Consumer Staples on a relative basis.

Staples are defensive by nature—they’re the go-to safety trade in equities, making them a great barometer for risk appetite.

And right now, they just reclaimed a critical level of support...

While U.S. equity investors are panicking, the Gold Bugs are riding powerful uptrends. It's a fantastic time to own shiny rocks.

Yesterday, we discussed the short interest in Silver hitting a record high. We think it's time for Gold's crazy cousin to shine.

In addition to that, we covered a variety of subjects in today's video, including: 

• The largest 4-week inflow into Gold on record
• Wild swings in the currency markets
• International stock markets
• Shiny rocks > stocks
• Seasonal sweet spot for Gold & Silver miners
• And what we're buying

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV and XRT positions.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

I don't know about you guys, but it seems like every trader I know now trades options these days. And more and more newbies in the markets are skipping trading stocks altogether and jumping right into the options ring. One look at the continuing explosion of options volumes on the main exchanges backs this up.

It wasn't always this way. 

For much of my early career, options trading was the "complicated" backwater of investing, reserved mostly for investors selling covered calls on their long-term holdings to derive some extra income in their portfolios.

Everyone’s an Options Trader Now—In Markets and in Life

Options trading has exploded in popularity. It seems like everyone, from Wall Street veterans to TikTok influencers, is placing bets on calls and puts. But this obsession with optionality isn’t just happening in the markets—it’s everywhere. Across industries and careers, people are structuring their decisions like options traders, seeking asymmetric rewards, hedging risks, and keeping multiple paths open.

This phenomenon raises an interesting question: Are people trading more options because they think like traders, or are...