Today's number is... 81%

Global breadth continues to expand, particularly within Developed Markets, as 81% of the 22 developed markets I track are now above their 200-day moving average.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel shows the price of the developed markets index.
• The black line in the lower panel shows the percentage of developed markets above their 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: At present, 81% of developed markets are trading above their 200-day moving average, the highest level we have seen this year. This is particularly significant given the ongoing selling pressure in the S&P 500, which has just recorded its third consecutive week of declines.

US investors have benefited from their tendency to favor domestic markets over the past decade. However, this trend could be on the verge of changing, with the relative strength of US markets diminishing while Europe and other developed markets are beginning to take the lead. This might be the moment...

From the pits of 19th-century speculation to today’s systematic hedge funds, trend following has remained the ultimate trading edge. Here’s why it works—and why it always will.

For centuries, traders have tried to predict markets—chasing news, studying fundamentals, and searching for a perfect formula to outthink the crowd. Meanwhile, the only strategy that actually worked was the simplest one: Follow the trend.

Nobody wanted to believe it. Trend following felt too passive, too reactive. Human nature prefers action, control, and the illusion of certainty. But markets don’t reward ego. They reward discipline.

Trend following wasn’t born in a lab. It wasn’t a theory crafted by economists. It was a survival mechanism.

In the 1900s, the most powerful traders—Gould, Patten, Cutten, Livermore—moved markets through insider knowledge, manipulation, and sheer size. The only way smaller traders survived was by recognizing the trend and riding the moves made by the big players.

This wasn’t...

There's never a dull moment in the market. It's always something.

The mixed messages are a feature, not a bug.

That's just how it's always been. So it's our job to weigh all the evidence and make the best decisions we can make, knowing full well that we have incomplete information.

Today I want to talk about 2 theories that may or may not be playing out, but it's something I'm thinking about. 

First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022?

I think it's because of what they own.

They're not in China, which is making new 3-year highs. 

They're not in...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Wow what a week to be an investor in stocks.

The broadening of participation all over the world continues. 

Meanwhile, the pessimism is stronger than ever.

I'm noticing the most angry of people are the ones who want stocks to fall because they don't like the Trump and all his buddies. 

But their anger is not the market's concern. If anything, it's just more fuel to drive stocks much higher, which would enrage them even more. 

It's pretty hilarious to watch actually.

Laughing is good for you. But laughing at people who haven't bothered to count and actually see how well stocks are doing, is all the more amusing.

You know, you can dislike Trump, and still recognize how strong this bull market continues to be, and how much stronger it's getting week over week.

Here is one of the most important stock market indexes in the world. I would argue that after the S&P500, Dow and Nasdaq, this one is right there behind it, and arguably right along there with it in the same category of importance.

EFA represents developed markets outside of North America. So think a ton of European stocks, United Kingdom, Japan and...

Today I'm going to share a little trick that I like to use to help put the current market volatility into perspective.

The math is like this. I take the value of the VIX and divide by 16. And that's what the market is pricing in for a normal daily move.

For example, if the VIX is at 24, then I would expect a 1.5% move in the S&P500 each day.

So if the VIX is at 16, then I would expect a 1% move.

If the VIX is at 32, then I would expect a 2% move.

Simple.

Now, many people wonder why it's 16, and that's where we get way above my paygrade. If you don't understand how the math around options works, don't worry. No one else does either.

I'm not even joking. Options math is next level impossible. Just ask any of the best options traders. They'll be the first to tell you.

The 16 number I believe has something to do with the square root of the number of trading days in a year, but I'm confident there's more to it than that.

Also, for you statistics majors, I believe there is technically like a 67% probability of these results, or something along those lines.

So keep in mind that The Rule of 16 is just a back of...

What does “the best week ever” mean to you?

For me, it means one thing. 

Momentum thrust.

Momentum thrusts come in two forms… initiation and exhaustion. 

The former signals the beginning of a new trend, and the latter marks the end of an existing one.

For this reason, it’s very important to identify what kind of thrust we’re dealing with. You don’t want to get that part wrong. Luckily, we have tools for this, and it’s not hard.

Anyway, I’m talking about international equities. I think the backdrop is set up perfectly for a big seed change in favor of ex-US stocks. 

We talked about it on the blog a few weeks ago, and it’s happening in a big way as we speak. 

One of the most effective ways to increase our odds of success is by focusing on assets that are not only trending higher on absolute terms but also outperforming their alternatives. 

This combination is a key ingredient of strong uptrends.

Right now, Gold checks both of these boxes. 

It’s not just flirting with all-time highs, but it’s also carving out a textbook trend reversal relative to the S&P 500. 

If we see gold breaking out of this base, then it will be time to favor rocks over stocks aggressively. 

Additionally, because of gold's defensive nature, it could signal a defensive rotation, and under that scenario, stocks could face a strong headwind.

When it comes to precious metals, Sam and Jason are the go-to guys. They break it all...

Stock market bulls have been watching the homies like hawks. 

It's a vital industry right now.

Alfonso recently wrote about the Home Construction ETF $ITB breaking to new lows relative to its defensive peer group, the Real Estate ETF $IYR.

He said, "This ratio has historically been a leading indicator for the broader market. During prior cycles, you can see clear divergences where ITB/IYR tops or bottoms ahead of major turns in the S&P 500." 

See the chart for yourself. The data doesn't lie. 

If the equity bull market in the United States is going to continue, this group cannot complete a massive top.

Here's the setup that everyone is watching 👇

As you can see, the iShares U.S. Home Construction Index $ITB has carved out a prolonged potential distribution pattern. 

The index...

Geez, a stock falls back to levels not seen since *gasp! * 5 weeks ago and the implied volatility spikes?

Feels like nervous bulls are getting a little overzealous with their put purchases. Let's fade 'em.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

Grocery stores are so hot right now! 🥵

Skyrocketing egg prices? No problem! Just pass the extra cost onto the consumer.

New tariffs on avocados from Mexico? No problem! Just pass the extra cost onto the consumer.

You get the point... These companies have tremendous power, and the market loves it.

Kroger $KR is one of the largest grocery store chains in the United States, and they've been rewarded for 13 out of its last 17 earnings reports.

This is as good as it gets.

The company reported mixed results on Thursday but rallied amidst a broad market selloff. It was very impressive.

Let's talk about what happened 👇

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Kroger missed its top-line expectations but beat the bottom line. The market rewarded it with a 2% rally and a 3.86 earnings reaction.

It was fabulous.

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about the technical setup 👇

Kroger grew its total sales by 1.5% in 2024, but the real growth comes from its media business, which...

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list comes from one of the most prominent hedge fund managers on Wall Street.

📌 Point72 Asset Management, led by Steve Cohen, disclosed a 5.00% stake in Mobileye $MBLY through an initial 13G filing. 

Cohen’s track record makes this a move worth watching closely.

And when a firm of Point72’s caliber takes a sizable stake, it often signals strong conviction in the company.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 6, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Director Kevin O’Byrne made a bold move, purchasing 6,500 shares of International Flavors & Fragrances $IFF.

📌 Last but not least, two U.S. Congress members, John Boozman and Greg Landsman, each purchased $15,000 worth of Amazon $AMZN.

...

We're noticing many important cyclical groups beginning to transition to red, indicative of the lingering risk aversion impacting the U.S. markets right now.

The Semiconductor $XSD and Homebuilders ETF $XHB are two perfect examples.

Homebuilders $XHB are potentially forming a longer-term head and shoulders top.

While they sit on a strong level of support and we'd be surprised to see the ETF melt straight through this level, the fact this important group has transitioned to red points to growing cracks in this bull market.

Likewise, Semiconductors $XSD are also selling off very hard right now.

While they remain stuck in the middle of a long-term range, this does point to a weakening of market breadth among important risk-on groups.

In a market environment such as this, being selective remains more important than ever. The industry with perhaps the greatest risk in a looming trade war is the consumer.

JC Parets and retail-expert Jeff Macke went live in a special strategy session to discuss exactly this - the best stocks to buy in the face of a trade war.

You can unlock...

A number of more defensive sectors, like Consumer Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, and Health Care $XLV are transitioning to green as U.S. markets sell off. This points to the growing risk aversion from investors as money rotates into lower beta and safer equity plays.

We're at a key conjecture between more significant drawdowns in risk groups or buyers stepping in to defend key levels. Last week I pointed to the Consumer Discretionary ETF $XLY retesting its breakout level at the 2021 highs.

Prices continue to work lower in the short-term, and now is when buyers must step in to defend this level.

As evident by the recent dip in this chart, consumer stocks are shifting fast.

There's a lot of headline risk right now with tariffs and trade wars, and there are bound to be significant winners and losers in this space in the coming months.

It's more important than ever to be selective in this group, so that's why retail-expert Jeff Macke is going live at 4pm today (Thursday) where he’ll break down the biggest moves in retail and reveal his model portfolio.

...