Today's number is... 5%

The S&P 500 has now experienced a 5% correction.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The gray bars in the second panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 5% correction.
• The yellow bars in the third panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 10% correction.
• The red bars in the fourth panel are the number of days prior to the start of a 20% correction.

The Takeaway: As of yesterday, the S&P 500 has pulled back 6.6%. It took 142 trading days for the S&P 500 to experience a 5% correction, which last occurred in August 2024.

So, what’s next? A 10% correction would bring the S&P 500 down to 5,529. It has been 337 trading days since we last witnessed a 10% correction. This level would essentially return the S&P 500 to where it was at the time of the last 5% correction.

Next is the possibility of a 20% correction, which would bring the S...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

A simple moving average is a lagging indicator that technicians use to help with the trend recognition process. It smooths out the erratic day-to-day action and shows us the mean price over a stated period.

A rising average is indicative of uptrends, while a falling average is indicative of downtrends.

Moving averages can also be used to analyze a market's internals.

One of my favorite ways to use them is to measure the number of stocks holding above or breaking below their long-term mean.

If a stock is above its 200-day, it’s probably not in a downtrend.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid with the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average.

This gives us a broad view of what is going on beneath the hood. 

During strong and healthy bull markets, I expect the indicator to remain elevated.

Here's the replay and chartbook from the March 6 Weekly Strategy Session.

Be sure to join us on Thursdays at 11 am ET and maximize your return potential.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XLE position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you're not a member, sign up here.

We’re going to take a shot on the short side and make the bet BTC completes this top and legs lower from here.

If it rolls over, this would be a textbook retest from below, and we should have a perfect entry.

Volatility is moving higher and we’re going to lean in the direction of the tactical trend. 

We’re also leaning in the direction of everything else in crypto right now. It’s ugly out there. We’ve seen similar tops like this complete and break to the downside in recent weeks.

This setup is too good to pass up.

We’re buying...

A wave of insider transactions rose up from the energy sector yesterday.

📌 Permian Resources $PR, Diamondback Energy $FANG, Murphy Oil $MUR, and Park Hotels & Resorts $PK all saw fresh buys. 

But the most significant move came from PR, where director William J. Quinn put down $9.6 million.

📌 Meanwhile, over in trucking, Old Dominion Freight Line $ODFL EVP and CFO Adam N. Satterfield just stepped up with a Form 4 filing revealing a purchase of $432,260.

When a CFO puts their own money in, it’s worth paying attention—they know the numbers better than anyone.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 5, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Skeena Resources $SKE saw a 13G filing, with Helikon Investments increasing its stake from 7.81% to 10.67%. 

📌 Last but not least,...

The biggest and best cyber security stocks haven't been rewarded for great earnings reports this quarter.

A few weeks ago, Palo Alto Networks $PANW reported a double beat, but it was beat down.

On Tuesday evening, CrowdStrike $CRWD reported a double beat, but it closed 6.33% lower on Wednesday.

This is a significant change in character from the recent past when these stocks were some of the hottest in the market.

PANW and CRWD recently rallied after 10 and 5 consecutive earnings reports, respectively.

This shows how much the market used to like what they had to say in their earnings reports. 

The tables have turned for these stocks. The market is now consistently punishing them for reporting earnings.

We have a lot to unpack today, so let's talk about what else happened 👇

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Brown-Forman $BF.B had the best reaction score on Wednesday, and Crowdstrike $CRWD had the worst.  

The stock with the largest market capitalization was CRWD, and the smallest was Campbell's $CPB.

...

The other day, I wrote about how the Consumer Discretionary Sector $XLY is testing a critical polarity level.

This is one of the most risk-on groups in the market.

Bulls want to see these consumer stocks hold the line—if they do, and the market rebounds, XLY should be a good place to be.

And when we talk about consumers, we have to talk about retailers. 

Some of the largest retail stocks in our universe are at or near key levels right now. 

Let’s dive in and talk about some of our favorites:

First up, the largest retailer in the world—Amazon $AMZN.

In January, chief congressional whale Nancy Pelosi bought between $250K–$500K worth of stock. 

Say what you want about her, but when Nancy...

The big insight here is that equity markets failed to follow through on their strength to close last week.

The Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ, for instance, is now breaking below a key level of support. Unless buyers step in right now, there is elevated downside risk in stocks in the short-term.

Today's number is... 5

The S&P 500 has experienced five consecutive days of moves exceeding +1% or -1%.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the middle panel indicates consecutive days when the S&P 500 experienced a daily movement of +1% or -1%.
• The red line in the bottom panel is the S&P 500’s 52-week drawdown.
• The vertical gray lines indicate consecutive days when the S&P 500 experienced a daily movement of +1% or -1% is greater than 5.

The Takeaway: We have experienced five consecutive days of 1% movements, either up or down, in the S&P 500. This marks the longest period of market volatility since August of last year. 

During this current period of volatility, we have seen a consistent trend of more stocks reaching new lows than new highs, alongside a significant rise in bearish market sentiment.

As shown in the chart, these volatile...

Today, we made a checklist of the most important charts in the market. 

We came up with about 20 key levels that, if broken, would suggest the end of the bull market.

Our list covers things from the major averages to crypto, and even some commodities and relative ratios. 

There are so many big levels being tested right now. In many cases, they are the prior-cycle highs, which means violations will result in some nasty failed breakouts.

We’re going to track them all closely and weigh the evidence. As more and more of these levels give way, we will turn increasingly bearish.

But, for me, one chart matters so much more than the rest over the short-term. Actually let’s just call it three, since it is the same situation for all of them.

Here’s a look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Industrial Average all digging in at their VWAPs from the August lows. These are the most important stock market indexes in the world.

They are all testing crucial support and rebounding in synchrony.

We’ve seen this story before. This won’t be...

Abercrombie took the pipe, Foot Locker was predictably lousy. Where I'm looking now as we grind through Mall Store Earnings,

Some of the best trades I make are the ones I pass on entirely. So it was for $ANF which into earnings this morning already down 40% for the year and somehow managed to disappoint investors. The teen darling and recent 10-bagger reported numbers slightly ahead of expectations for Christmas but guided the current year well below expectations. 

Needless to say Wall Street focused on the negative, sending ANF shares all the way down to the low $80s or 50% below where they were trading as recently as January.

I love ANF. I shop there with my son, it's made me a lot of money and the aggressively suggestive catalogs from the '90s were an endless source of delight when I was a younger man. Here's a little secret: consumer stocks are where love goes to die. If you hold your winners forever you usually end up broke. Love the game, date the stocks. Long-term ANF investors should have known better.

Which doesn't mean you need to forget about the companies entirely. Quite the opposite. Shares of the Gap have been public...

Today's trade is a similar bet to yesterday's trade. With $VIX in the 20s and big caps putting in short term bottoms at key pivot points, these are opportunities for opportunistic put spread sellers.