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Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/5/25

March 5, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XOP to April options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (03-05-2025)

March 5, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

The Bears Took a Bite Out of These Retail Stocks 📊🐻

March 5, 2025

One of the largest discount stores in the world, Target $TGT just reported earnings. It wasn't good...

Yesterday, we told you this report was front and center for our retail analyst, Jeff Macke. It wasn't so much about being interested in buying or selling the stock as it was about the information they provided.

And they gave the market a ton of information, very little of which was positive.

The company reported a 3.1% decrease in sales year-over-year, and its profit margin fell to 4.7% from 5.8% in the previous year.

In addition, they issued softer-than-expected guidance. This added fuel to the fire.

Overall, the market hated this report, which doesn't bode well for the broader retail space.

We have a lot to unpack today, so let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the...

Hot Corner Insider

More Top Executives Reveal Inside Purchases

March 5, 2025

We have more insider activity by top executives to talk about today.

📌 Kevin Tang just made a $12.7 million bet on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals $AUPH, filing a Form 4 that shows strong conviction in the biotech space. 

📌 Moderna $MRNA CEO Stéphane Bancel stepped up to buy 160,314 shares, equivalent to $5 million.

When company presidents and CEOs personally buy millions of dollars worth of stock, it speaks to their high conviction in a business's long-term prospects.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 4, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

📌 Meanwhile, director Martin Tuchman backed FTAI Aviation $FTAI with a $283,000 buy.

📌 Carl Icahn’s $6.7 million buy in CVR Energy $CVI is another one to watch. 

Icahn is one of the most legendary activist investors of all time, so this...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Wednesday, March 5, 2025

March 4, 2025

Today's number is... 10%

Over 10% of stocks on the NYSE+NASDAQ are making new lows.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The black line in the bottom panel shows the percentage of NYSE+NASDAQ 52-week new highs minus new lows.

The Takeaway: We have a saying here at All Star Charts… The stock market can only decline with an expansion in the new lows list, it's simple math… and you know what… The number of stocks making new lows is higher than the number of stocks making new highs.

Yesterday, among the 7,422 stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ, 997 made new 52-week lows, while only 101 achieved new 52-week highs.

That's 11.8% relative to new highs and over 13% new lows on an absolute basis.

...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Decision Time

March 4, 2025

The past couple of weeks have been rough.

Volatility is rising, and key groups are testing major levels—making me question just how bullish this market really is.

It feels like decision time.

Either this bull market holds, and we continue to spend our time looking for stocks to buy

Or sellers take control and change the market’s character, and we start looking for stocks to sell.

When markets reach an inflection point, it’s always a good idea to check in on the biggest names.

These are the stocks investors want to own. The ones hedge funds anchor their portfolios with.

These are the bellwethers and the roadmap for everything else.

...
Breakout Multiplier

Two Silver Longs

March 4, 2025

This post was originally for paid members only. It has since been unlocked for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

If you're not a member, sign up here.

Precious metals are shaping up, and silver looks ready to play catch-up.

One good way to add some exposure here is through Pan American Silver $PAAS.

The stock has been carving out a nice base since last summer and is pushing toward the top of its range. 

If silver moves, PAAS will move—and it should come with a lot more juice.

 


The setup is clean, our risk is well-defined, and the upside potential is solid. If we’re right about silver, PAAS will be one of the best ways to play it.

Here’s the play:

We’re buying the $PAAS 4/17 $27 calls for approximately $0.45-0.55 per contract....

All Star Charts Premium

The Short Report (03-04-2025)

March 4, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

Macke's Retail Roundup

Tuesday Fallout: Discretionary Death Trap

March 4, 2025

Every stock in the mall is getting obliterated on Tariff headlines and slow spending. Finding dips to buy and places to hide. 

We wanted clues as to how consumer stocks were going to handle the News when reporting earnings over the next couple weeks and, for the most part, the answer seemed to be "poorly", at least when it came to the Big Box names which continue to be plagued by Tariff headlines and ambivalent customers.

As more or less anticipated, Target and Best Buy posted ok numbers and guided cautiously (see: "Beat and Guide Lower" from earlier this week). On which is the only name of the three I own turned in a glorious quarter and outlook (sees ~35% Q1 growth!) but was only rewarded with a rather anemic bounce:

 

 

What Did We Learn:

  • The risk is still to the downside. ONON could have bounced higher. In fact, it really should have gotten a bigger bump from today's report, which was about perfect. Best Buy arguably could have seen a gain on slightly better than expected news and Target hasn't seemed this lost in years but not in a surprisingly way. The net result was negative returns on the...
Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/4/25

March 4, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XHB to April options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Charts Premium

Rotation vs Distribution

March 4, 2025

Last night might have been the most important LIVE Conference Call we've ever had.

Traders and Investors have so many questions right now about the coming months and quarters that we had so much to talk about.

We went over all the most important trends in the market today, what our favorite setups are from the long side, what the new downside risks look like, and my one favorite place to put money to work RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW.

Click here and register to get full access to last night's LIVE Video Conference Call.

You'll be able to pause, rewind and fast forward. And the slide deck with over 160 charts is also available to download right away.

Watch the Replay and get the Trade Ideas...

Hot Corner Insider

Multiple CEOs Are Buying the Dip

March 4, 2025

The big story today is the sheer number of CEOs putting their own money on the line to buy the dip.

📌 Taboola $TBLA: Founder and CEO Adam Singolda bought another 123,771 shares.

📌 Wolverine World Wide $WWW: CEO Christopher Hufnagle stepped in with $295,400.

📌 Kratos Defense $KTOS: CEO Eric M. DeMarco filed a Form 4 revealing an acquisition of 9,500 shares.

📌 Talkspace $TALK: CEO Jon R. Cohen backs his own company with a $214,000 share purchase.

📌 Geron Corp $GERN: CEO John A. Scarlet reported a $206,213 purchase.

📌 Federal Signal $FSS: CEO Jennifer L. Sherman doubles down on industrial growth with a $102,900 buy.

📌 Selective Insurance $SIGI: CEO John J. Marchioni bought 1,180 shares for $102,000.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from March 3, 2025:

 

...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Tuesday, March 4, 2025

March 4, 2025

Today's number is... 2021

My Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio has sharply declined recently and returned to levels when the ratio peaked and fell into a consolidation period back in 2021.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The black line is my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio.
    • The Risk-On components consist of Copper (HG1), High Yield Bonds (JNK), Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD), Semiconductors (SOXX/SPY) & High Beta (SPHB/SPY).
    • The Risk-Off components consist of Gold (GC1), US Treasury Bonds (TLT), Yen (JPYUSD), Utilities (XLU/SPY) & Staples (XLP/SPY).

The Takeaway: Investors are experiencing fear and pessimism, as bearish sentiment dominates the surveys. The US market is beginning to mirror this mood, showing a preference for a Risk-Off environment. This is reflected in my Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio, which has returned to a key level of importance where we saw NYSE breadth reach its peak in 2021.

Will this resistance level, which has turned into support, continue to act as support, or will this ratio...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Do Global Stocks Keep Outperforming?

March 3, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

The key piece of information here is how more and more international diversified ETFs are overtaking the US' S&P 500 $SPY.

International stocks have outperformed YTD versus the United States, a trend that has persistently favored the latter for well over a decade. This has us wondering whether we're entering into a new regime of widening global breadth outside the United States.

Something we're pondering in the short-term, however, is whether we see some rotation back into the United States as many U.S. growth names closed the week bouncing off support while many international ETFs hit their highs.

Take Colombia $GXG, for instance, which is finding resistance at its 2024 highs.

 

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ defended a key level of support.

 

And while this took place, the relative trend favored the United States over international in a strong way to close last week. Take a look at how much international stocks $VEU underperformed on Friday.

 

While these are shorter-term trends, the big picture is impossible to ignore.

More international markets are beginning to outperform...

The Strazza Letter

Game. Set. BTC.

March 3, 2025

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It really looks like game over for crypto. Hear me out. 

Last week, I wrote a post about how I’m turning bearish. I’m out and even a little short. It’s been going well.

Then last night, Trump tweets about the crypto reserve and sets the whole space on fire.

Cardano is rallying 60%, and I’m sitting in my office preparing a list of things I need to see to turn bullish again. 

But by the time traditional markets opened today, it was clear this move was a head-fake. It was more of the same. 

Despite the bullish headlines, all the Sunday fireworks would be erased.

We’ve already discussed the sentiment of the asset class and how cryptos have reacted to news lately. It’s a big part of my bearish thesis. But, this is a new low.

Think about it. 

Crypto was public enemy number one just last year.

Now, we don’t just have a friendly and favorable regulatory environment...