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International Hall of Famers (02-28-2025)

February 28, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
The Strazza Letter

Some Charts to Scare You

February 28, 2025

It is always good to play a little devil’s advocate.

One of the things JC has got me accustomed to doing over the years is thinking like a bear… even when I’m not bearish.

“Make your best bear case,” he’d say. 

“What are the worst charts right now?”

It’s something we do just as a thought exercise. Even in the best of bull markets, this is a valuable technique.

Anyway, I thought of it today because I’m finding it uncomfortably easy to paint a negative outlook on stocks lately. 

And I’m not alone. Market sentiment is in the dumps as the bearish evidence keeps piling in.

So, I went to the analyst team and asked them for their most bearish charts this morning.

Let’s look at some and talk about what they mean.

First up, this one is from the Fons:

He talked about this failed break in the discretionary vs staples ratio in his note the other day.

...
Hot Corner Insider

CEOs of AKAM, SWKS, RCUS, and AENT Are Buying Their Own Stock

February 28, 2025

The most significant insight from today’s list is the sheer number of CEOs buying their own stock.

📌 Akamai Technologies $AKAM: CEO Frank Thomson Leighton purchased $3 million worth of stock.

📌 Skyworks Solutions $SWKS: CEO and President Liam Griffin bought 10,000 shares.

📌 Arcus Biosciences $RCUS: CEO Terry J. Rosen stepped in with $402,000.

📌 Alliance Entertainment $AENT: The CEO and the Executive Chairman purchased $269,000.

When these top executives, who know the business better than anyone, start putting their own money on the line, it’s worth paying attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 27, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

The CFOs of Selective Insurance Group $SIGI and Grocery Outlet Holding Corp $GO didn’t stay on the sidelines—they stepped up and put their...

Bull or Bear: There's Something for Everyone! 🐂🐻

February 28, 2025

Thursday was a big day for S&P 500 earnings reactions.

We heard from the market darling, NVIDIA $NVDA. They reported a double beat but were beaten down as a result.

eBay $EBAY was another stock that beat expectations but wasn't rewarded.

On the other hand, entertainment behemoths Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount Global missed the market's expectations, but the market rewarded them for it.

There was something for the bulls and the bears to chew on.

We have a lot to unpack today, so let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Invitation Homes $INVH had the best reaction score on Thursday, and Teleflex $TFX had the worst.  

The stock with the largest market capitalization was NVIDIA $NVDA, and the smallest was APA Corp. $APA.

The market's reaction to NVDA's double beat was quite nasty. It was a big win for the bears.

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about the most significant earnings reactions 👇

INVH had its best earnings reaction since Q2 2020: 

...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Friday, February 28, 2025

February 28, 2025

Today's number is... 20%

The percentage of stocks down 20% or more are expanding across all S&P market caps.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks (Large Cap) that have declined by 20% or more.
  • The red line indicates the percentage of S&P 400 stocks (Mid Cap) that have fallen by 20% or more.
  • The gray line shows the percentage of S&P 600 stocks (Small Cap) that have experienced a decline of 20% or more.

The Takeaway: A decline of 20% or more is typically considered the threshold for defining a "bear market" While this method isn't perfect, it's a nice round number that often brings the price of the stock down to levels that you never thought you would see again.

When we look beneath the surface using a 20% or more decline as our criteria, we can see that these breadth readings are expanding across all market caps. 

More than half of the S&P 600...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Precious Metals Jump to the Top

February 27, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

What immediately stands out is how the precious metal miner ETFs have migrated to the top of the table. This points to a pronounced increase in relative strength as equity markets have sold off.

You can see how all these ETFs have transitioned to a darker green in recent weeks.

 

It's no surprise to see these ETFs outperform the market in periods where gold is also outperforming.

Tracking the ratio of Gold relative to stocks, this ratio tends to exhibit strong upward spikes, followed by prolonged periods of downward of sideways action. Right now, this ratio is experiencing yet another spike as stocks sell off.

Whether or not this trend favoring precious metal stocks is sustainable is yet to be seen, as of yet. But in either case, to top the ETF Power Rankings is no small accomplishment; there is serious relative strength here.

 
ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 China Growth Nears Price Discovery

February 27, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

As US stocks have sold off in recent sessions, China growth has migrated to the top of the rankings.

Notably, this group found itself well into the red during the most correction. But this rotation into international stocks is having implications across many key intermarket trends.

The China Technology ETF $CQQQ is on the cusp of completing this massive multi-year base breakout. If a breakout can manifest here, it would be tremendously bullish for this theme.

 
ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Consumer Stocks Retest Their Breakout

February 27, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

US sectors have experienced some notable weakness this week as many groups fail to hold their recent breakouts.

While this does a paint a picture that the market environment is transitioning to a choppier period, it is important to view this within the context of the longer-term trends.

Let's take Consumer Discretionary $XLY as an example.

The ETF has just broken to new lows, and the short-term trend has shifted lower.

 

But when we zoom out, the ETF is actually sitting on top of a significant breakout level. Typically, retests such as these are often met with strong demand.

 

It's unsurprising to see this weakness early in the year considering the last two years of significant market gains. The third year of bull markets can be more choppy than the preceding two, but longer-term the trends are constructive.

Perhaps the most surprising element of this recent weakness is crypto. While stocks have sold off modestly, crypto is enduring quite a beating. Our Senior Crypto Analyst, Louis Sykes, will be joining Director of Research, Steve Strazza, in an emergency crypto update at midday today.

...
All Star Charts Premium

Junior International Hall of Famers (02-27-2025)

February 27, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

 

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over the trailing...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Catalyst for a Global Equities Rally

February 27, 2025

Global equities are on a tear.

From China to Europe to Latin America, they're outperforming the U.S. so far this year.

However, while they look strong, many key indexes are approaching critical inflection points.

These three charts illustrate exactly where things stand and highlight the potential for what might come next.

 

If the global growth narrative is going to play out, we need to see these international indexes break higher.

Even more importantly, EEM needs to follow suit.

Under that scenario, I want to be buying a lot of these...

Macke's Retail Roundup

"Beat and Guide Lower" is 2025's Hottest Trend

February 27, 2025

Wall St and Retailers adjusting to a random news flow world...

Remember the beginning of January? Retailers were pre-announcing strong Holiday sales and margins. Consumer Discretionary stocks were on a heater dating all the way back to pessimism lows last August. For every Kohl's or Target falling behind there were two or three Walmart's, Costcos, Victoria's Secret or Amazons; quality names near all-time highs based on nothing but old-fashioned execution.

It all seemed so rational. So fair. "Good news is being rewarded, everyone else is Target" we thought, "Surely nothing can stop us now"

Annnnnd that was the top. At least for now. As we wage into the Meat of retail earnings season next week a theme as emerged and it's sort of thorny. Companies are reporting strong results and guiding 2025 below estimates. Generally nothing disastrous. But words like "value conscious" and "promotional" are being used. 

We could let it slide a bit when Amazon said it. Amazon has a lot of spending to do. Same for Walmart. But we're only a couple weeks into these reports and we've heard variants on Beat and Guide Lower from, off the top of my head:

  • Walmart...
Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/27/25

February 27, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling XRT to April Options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

These Earnings Reactions Were Incredible 📊🤯

February 27, 2025

There were some sweet earnings reactions on Wednesday. It was a day for the bulls.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI filed an overdue earnings report. The market didn't care about the numbers. It was just happy to hear the company wasn't a complete fraud.

Then there was Intuit $INTU, which blew the market away with its earnings report. We're going to talk more about it later.

We also heard from NRG Energy $NRG, one of the leading "AI Utilities" benefiting from expanding data centers in the United States.

There's a lot to unpack.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Intuit $INTU had the best reaction score on Wednesday, and Keysight Technologies $KEYS had the worst.  

The stock with the largest market capitalization was Intuit $INTU, and the smallest was Caesars Entertainment $CZR.

There weren't any double misses, but a handful of companies reported mixed results. 

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about the most significant earnings reactions 👇

INTU had its best...
Hot Corner Insider

Director Kim Reports a $19 Million AMKR Purchase

February 27, 2025

The biggest insider move today came from Amkor Technology $AMKR, where  director Susan Kim filed a Form 4 revealing a massive $19 million buy.

When an executive puts this kind of money on the line, it’s worth noting—this isn’t just a routine purchase, it’s a strong statement of confidence in the company’s future.

Meanwhile, Pinetree Capital Ltd filed a Form 4 stepping in with a $2.45 million purchase of TruBridge $TBRG.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 26, 2025:

 

Click the table to enlarge it.

Over in oil and gas, Horizon Kinetics Asset Management LLC grabbed $350,000 worth of Texas Pacific Land Corp $TPL.

Lastly, Pertento Partners LLP took a 5% stake in Netgear $NTGR via a 13G filing, signaling a strategic position in communication equipment.

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Thursday, February 27, 2025

February 26, 2025

Today's number is... -0.50

My Risk-On/Risk-Off indicator has declined sharply and is now at -0.50, firmly re-entering Risk-Off territory.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
  • The black line in the bottom panel is our custom indicator, which comprises 20 Intermarket ratios that pair various risk-on and risk-off assets.
    • Green is a bullish environment, and red is a bearish environment.

The Takeaway: This indicator has been fluctuating between Risk-On and Risk-Off modes for most of the year. However, over the past week, it has sharply declined and moved well and truly back into Risk-Off territory. This downward pressure indicates a change in the market environment, suggesting that the focus has shifted from opportunity to risk.

Moving forward, I will be monitoring to see if this recent weakness sticks around to determine if we experience further downside...

The Strazza Letter

What If We Lose the Semis?

February 26, 2025

Nvidia just reported its third consecutive earnings report without a significant market reaction.

The stock didn’t do much when they reported back in August and November of last year. And it’s not doing much again today, trading down by less than 1% after-hours.

As for the technical outlook, nothing changes. Nvidia is still stuck in the same range it has been trading in since last summer.

JC and the guys did a live event to discuss the earnings numbers and the stock’s reaction after the bell today. You can rewatch it here.

We only hold these events when there is something big to discuss, and the truth about NVDA is that it is far and away the most important stock for the overall market.

And it’s less about anything specific to do with AI or Nvidia’s business, and more to do with the stock's massive weighting in the major averages and indexes.

Semiconductors are the most critically-important industry group in the market. If we lose the semis, and we lose NVDA...