In true commodity supercycles, shiny yellow rocks outperform stocks.

Last week, we outlined why we thought buying gold and selling stocks was a good idea. If you haven't had a chance, you can check out that post.

But that's not it.

We've also been pounding the table on how bullish we are on the precious metal mining stocks. They're testing a key level of polarity relative to gold futures. 

This is the level where the miners begin to outperform gold.

We're also heading into the sweet spot for junior gold mining stocks based on seasonality. 

If you trade options, you know that expiration day can be a wild ride. Some trades go exactly as planned, while others take an unexpected turn—like waking up to an assignment you weren’t expecting.

This week, regular February Monthly options expire. I'm often asked about what happens to my positions or portfolio if I'm holding something that is expiring.

So, what actually happens when your options expire? Whether you’re holding long calls, short puts, or an iron condor, understanding assignment, settlement, and pin risk can save you from some unpleasant surprises. Let’s break it down.

What Happens When an Option Expires

When options hit expiration, a few things can happen:

• If they’re out of the money (OTM) → They expire worthless. No harm, no foul.

• If they’re in the money (ITM) → They’re usually exercised or assigned.

• If they’re right at the strike price → Things can get interesting (we’ll talk about pin risk in a bit).

Most brokers will automatically exercise an option if it’s at least $0.01 in the money...

As more stocks, more sectors and more countries around the world start to participate in this bull market, any of the short sellers who overstayed their welcome are getting blown up.

Good.

This is a classic characteristic of healthy bull market environments. I would encourage you to go back and study every bull market ever. You'll find that investors who own stocks are much more profitable than those who are selling stocks.

It's just math.

Here's the thing about short sellers that I think gets forgotten. Short sellers are guaranteed future buyers. Longs are only promising to be future sellers. 

The thing is that when shorts are getting squeezed, these can become forced liquidations. And margin clerks don't use limit orders. They'll spray the market, and it will crush you if you're on the wrong side of that.

But if you're on the right side - pay day!

Here is a list of stocks where short sellers are the most vulnerable to get blown up:

The list begins with names that have a high short interest. Then we look at the ones where the number of shares short are exponentially greater...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended January 3, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s...

Today's number is... 38.8

Bearish market sentiment continues to rise, with our Average Bears indicator reaching 38.8 last week. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index achieved a weekly all-time high... Things that make you go, hmmm.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The light red line in the middle panel shows the S&P 500 index 52-week drawdown.
• The dark red line in the bottom panel shows the average bears from the Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

The Takeaway: An increasing number of bears have entered the market, this is illustrated by our average bear indicator, which has risen to its highest level since March 2023. Typically, when we see this many bears in the stock market, we are somewhere in the midst of a market drawdown. However, by the close of trading on Friday, the S&P 500 index finished the week at new all-time highs. 

...

My uncle told me in 1999 that tech was about to take a nap.

I had no idea what the hell he was talking about. I was too busy riding bikes and planning my next trip to a contest. 

But I’ll never forget the timing of his trades.

He sold all his tech stocks and started buying gold miners, micro caps, and commodities.

It sounded crazy to me at the time. But his entire analysis came down to one thing:

The Dollar.

We have not seen a real weak dollar environment in nearly 20 years.

Yeah, we’ve seen pullbacks—2017-18, late 2020-21—but a sustained downtrend?

I haven’t seen one.

Look at the chart. The last real decline was after the dot-com crash in 2000.

Since the Great Financial Crisis, the playbook was simple:

Strong dollar. Strong bonds.

That was the foundation that the ETF market was built on. There are almost 1000 fixed income ETFs.

Meanwhile, weak dollar trades—commodity ETFs, inflation plays—kept getting wiped out. 

Sports betting is so hot right now. 🥵

DraftKings $DKNG had one of its best earnings reactions ever on Friday, fueled by a blockbuster report.

The company acquired 3.5M new customers, increasing its total customer base by 42% Y/Y to 10.1M. 

That's a lot of gamblers!

As you can see, DraftKings gapped above a shelf of former highs from around this time last year. 

We think Friday's candlestick marked the beginning of a new leg higher for DKNG. 

If the biggest and best stock in the sports betting industry looks this good, imagine what its peers will do.

Genius Sports $GENI is the leading sports data, technology, and broadcast services provider. 

In 2021, they inked a deal with the NFL to distribute live data and statistics exclusively to sportsbooks and media companies.

This deal has been incredibly lucrative.

But that's not it. 

They have deals with sports leagues and media organizations worldwide, including the English Premier League, the NCAA, and ESPN.

In addition to the sweet fundamental tailwinds, the...

The altcoin space just got obliterated.

Traders have been liquidated en masse, and bullish positioning has been wiped clean. By definition, pessimism now outweighs optimism.

But if you've been following along, you know I spent months neutral on crypto. After this selloff, I’ve flipped bullish.

Zoom out. This is a textbook flush at a key demand zone.

While others get caught in the noise, I’m simplifying—weekly line chart, nothing fancy. The setups I’ve been waiting for in AI coins are here.

Don't miss the ASC Premium Mid-Month Strategy Session on Monday, February 17th, at 8 pm ET! 🚨

👉 Click here to register for the LIVE event.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

It was a busy week for stocks, but the most important price action was elsewhere.

The US Dollar is getting rocked as risk-on currencies catch big bids.

And it’s all happening at a critical level, that if violated, could mark a major shift in the intermarket landscape.

The one big question all investors should be asking themselves right now is simple…

“What is the best trade if this is a failed breakout in the dollar?”

In other words, what goes up the most if the dollar gets slammed back into the box?

Or even, what will be the best trends if the dollar heads back to the lower bounds of its range?

And I have some thoughts on this. I’ve been thinking about it for a long time.

I was expecting the dollar to become a tailwind last year. It didn’t happen. A falling dollar was the one thing missing during the post-election rally. But I think it’s coming now.

When I think about a weak dollar, I think about international equities. The most offensive areas of the global stock market should fare well with a falling dollar. Emerging...

When it comes to global equities, we’re seeing participation broaden in a way we haven’t seen in a long time.

Europe stands out with a growing list of countries ripping to new highs.

Just look at the German DAX and the London FTSE 350 both closing the week at their highest level in history.

If these two are ripping higher, how bad could things really be?

European banks are breaking out to their highest level since the Great Financial Crisis.

And it’s not just Europe. China’s back in gear, and even Latin America’s outperforming out of the gate this year.

Investors across the globe are embracing risk.

And if all these other countries are just starting to work, is the bull market going to end...

February is historically one of the best months of the year for commodities. This year is no different.

Coffee is like a freight train. It keeps chugging along to new all-time highs. 

Natural gas has rallied over 20% so far this month.

Dr. Copper is challenging a key level of interest and flirting with a multi-decade base breakout.

But what continues to stand out the most to us is the grain markets.

Last week, we outlined why we're buying...

One for the good guys.

All it took was one "earnings trade" in $APP to get the vertical spreads scoreboard in the green YTD for 2025:

We never know which trade will be the one that delivers big gains. That's why it is so important to have a process for sizing our positions, allocating risk equally among ideas, and sticking to it. When we do this, the handful of big winners make up for all the small losers.

Here's a look at the six vertical spreads we've closed in All Star Options so far this year:

Prior to yesterday's exit, we were 0-for-5 on closed long vertical spreads. But now with one +320% win, the average return for every vertical spread we've exited in 2025 is $186 per $1000 invested, with an average hold time of 57 days. Not bad considering the 17% win rate!

At the risk of jinxing it, we've got another long vertical spread in $NET that is currently deep in the money and will likely add to the win total and increase our average gain per trade.

It isn't easy losing more times than we win. But sticking to the process and...

Today's trade comes from a recent Junior Hall of Famers report.

Opportunities like this don't come around too often, but when I have a realistic shot at 10x-ing my money, I get really interested.

This is that.

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled EEM position to April options.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Consumer Data Points are all around you. What I’m looking for as I head to NYC for the weekend.

Point72 Asset Management filed a 13G, reporting an increase in its stake in Tower Semiconductor $TSEM from 2.80% to 5.05%.

This represents a nearly 100% increase in its existing position, which is noteworthy.

Founded by Steve Cohen, the hedge fund is known for aggressive trading and deep research, managing tens of billions in assets.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 13, 2025:

A director at SLM Corp $SLM filed a Form 4 disclosing a significant purchase of company stock, an acquisition of shares worth $289,032 that signals confidence in the business.

Finally, Orbimed Advisors filed an original 13D reporting an 8.40% position in the newly issued Sionna Therapeutics $SION, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company researching medicines for cystic fibrosis.