As precious metal investors, it's paramount to rotate between the metals themselves and mining companies to maximize our long-term gains.

The miners have historically treated shareholders poorly, but sometimes, it pays handsomely to own them.

Last week, we outlined a key level of interest in one of our favorite intermarket ratios. Based on this chart, we believe now is the time to buy the miners.

But it's not just the miners that've rewarded us for being long. The futures contracts are also trending higher, and we're looking to buy more on strength.

Every year I sit down with my 2 kids and put together a portfolio of Consumer Facing stocks. The picks aren't all retailers but each fits in the bucket of my expertise. They make products I can see, feel and sometimes taste. They are brands that evoke, or at least used to evoke, Feelings in domestic consumers and investors.

Most importantly, they are companies with Stocks I believe can make me, and my kids, money over the coming year. The portfolio gets adjusted periodically, opportunistically but never casually. We trade around the positions but the core is adjusted only when the stocks out-run their target, the story gets worse or we want to free up money for a better investment.

Those are the guiding principles guiding the Retail Round-Up Model Portfolio. Today and tomorrow I'm unveiling my favorite consumer longs for 2025 as it stands right now. My goal isn't to minimize risk or free-ride market trends. Your situation will vary but this is a concentrated, fairly aggressive portfolio designed for people with long time frames. The starting value was $10,000 as of 12/31/2024 with $10,000 split equally across these ten stocks. Any trades will be recorded as of the...

Donald Trump gets inaugurated today as the next president of the United States.

This comes after a historic republican landslide that betting markets had absolutely correct going into the election.

Anyone who thought it was 4 guys in a room manipulating the markets were actually just hoping that was the case, because they didn't like what the betting markets were saying.

Tough shit.

You ignored the market and it cost you. 

Bitcoin is making new all-time highs this morning as the first Publicly Pro-Crypto President in history is about to take office.

You don't have to like the guy. In fact, you can hate Trump. Or love him. It doesn't matter when it comes to how we're going to profit from it.

And that's what this is all about.

If you let your politics influence your decision making in the market, you're an extremist. And there's no room for extremism in turning a profit.

Separate the two, or it will not end well. That I promise you.

And we've seen it over the last year.

Many of the...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended January 3, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s...

This is a bull market for stocks. If you're not making money in this environment, then you should probably reevaluate your strategies. 

I know for a fact that I've witnessed individuals, who are clearly mentally ill, fight this historic rally pretending that there's some kind of epic credit crisis coming any day now (for over 2 years lol).

Whether it's fake breadth deterioration, or the "yen carry trade", or lies about Gold sending some kind of warning, or the Fed ruining everything, or small-caps underperforming, or Trump and his Magas. 

It's always something. 

These people will make up anything in their heads, no matter how outrageous, in order to justify poor decisions. Their egos are too fragile. 

Good.

It might be a little sad to have to watch them ruin their lives. But it's great for us who recognize their vulnerabilities and have chosen to just profit from it all instead.

You see, when I hear credit crisis, I naturally look at credit spreads to see what's going on.

The answer is: NOTHING.

Still nothing...

Credit spreads are as tight as they've been this entire bull market:

If...

Energy has clearly been on a tear in recent weeks, bouncing from oversold conditions. The energy sector has not broken out and is still rangebound, so until that breakout takes place, we do have to lean on the side of caution for now following this rally.

But we're beginning to see a handful of industry groups within the sector begin transitioning to green.

Interestingly, MLPs have been a clear area of outperformance as indicated by the long stretch of green while the other groups have been red.

Just like the eSport stocks we covered yesterday and these MLPs today, there are so many opportunities under the hood.

We discuss exactly that in our intimate Portfolio Accelerator events. The entire team will be getting together in a few weeks and access is invitation only. If you want in, you can apply to join here.

From the shores of New Zealand, the political landscape of the United States unfolds like a peculiar theater production. Not the usual drama of left versus right, we've all seen enough of that, but rather a new kind of spectacle that blurs the lines between leadership, technology, and what can only be described as digital gambling.

Look, I'm not here to claim some kind of moral high ground from my corner of the South Pacific. New Zealand, for all its postcard perfection, grapples with its own demons: poor economic productivity, a culture of tall poppy syndrome, and mental health statistics that would make any policymaker wince. Every nation carries its own burden of imperfection.

But the United States? It has managed to craft something uniquely concerning in the intersection of power and profit.

Take the long-standing tradition of American politicians trading stocks. While this practice isn't exclusive to the U.S., what sets it apart is the conspicuous absence of robust conflict of interest controls. The response from the trading community has been surprisingly cavalier: "Why complain? Just follow their disclosures and profit alongside them." It's a...

Israel outperformed the United States stock market in 2024, and that trend has spilled over into 2025.

Camtek $CAMT is one of the hottest Israeli stocks, but the bears still hate it. 

The stock has a record-high 14% short interest and an 8x days-to-cover ratio. 

This extreme mispositioning is blowing up in the bears' faces as they've been freshly squeezed.

As you can see, Camtek carved out a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern, which excited the bears.

Over the last year, the short interest has ballooned to its highest level in history despite the stock price reaching new highs.

Last week, the bulls stepped in and failed the potential distribution pattern, and now the bears are scrambling to cover their positions.

That's why we're looking to buy the stock and profit from the short sellers that are in the house of pain right now.

Don't miss the ASC Premium Mid-Month Strategy Session on Monday, January 20th, at 7 pm ET! 🚨

👉 Click here to register for the LIVE event.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

The coal industry is one of the most under-the-radar ponds to fish in.

Investors write it off because "clean energy" will displace the industry. While this is likely true, we think it will take far longer than most expect. 

In the meantime, this extreme mispositioning is our opportunity to profit.

You would have made a fortune if you bought these stocks at the depths of the COVID crash. Far more than if you purchased the hottest "work from home" stock.

These stocks had their best day in years last summer after a major Australian coal mine caught fire and halted production. 

While we haven't seen the upside follow-through we anticipated, the setup looks ripe for the bulls to take control.

Let's dive into the charts.

Our Coal Index rallied from 5 to 40 from 2020 to 2022, making it the best industry group during the post-COVID bull market.

Since then, it has churned sideways in a well-deserved digestion of gains. 

...

Bitcoin broke out of a multi-year base back in November and surged rapidly from $70K to $100K, hitting my initial target in a matter of days.

Fast forward to today, and it has been consolidating within a tight range, digesting gains just below the key psychological level of $100K. 

This level is also the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the 2022 bear market.

Earlier this week, BTC quickly dipped below support and then reclaimed it, trapping the bears as price reversed higher. It’s booked several bullish follow-through days since.

With the bulls proving themselves and BTC above $100K, I think a fresh leg higher could be around the corner.

The next target is around $155K.

See you there.

For the market to experience a meaningful correction, we need to see clear signs of defensive rotation—and so far, that hasn’t happened.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries are viewed as the defensive play, especially compared to their High Yield counterparts. 

It’s the same concept in equities when you compare Consumer Staples to the broader S&P 500. If the environment favors risk-taking, both Treasuries and Staples should underperform.

Overlaying the Treasuries versus High-Yield ratio (IEI/HYG) with the Staple vs S&P 500 ratio (XLP/SPY), you’ll notice they move in the same direction.

Currently, both are trending lower and making new lows, signaling no defensive positioning from bond or equity investors.

As long as these lines keep trending down and to the right, there’s nothing to worry about for risk assets. But if they start to turn higher, that would be a key warning sign of trouble ahead, potentially...

A stock featured in a recent Junior Hall of Famers report has triggered an entry today, and it has a lot of room to run.

Earnings are on the horizon, but we'll play this stock with a defined-risk spread that takes a little of the sting out of the options' cost while giving us the ability to participate in upside follow-through should we get it. 

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

We just heard from some of the world's most important corporations, and there's a lot of new information to unpack.

The largest health insurance company in the world was front and center for us.

In addition, we heard from a few of the largest money center and superregional banks.

A few reactions raised red flags for stock market bulls, so let's talk about it. 

*click the image to enlarge it

Morgan Stanley's reaction was positive and similar to the other large financial stocks that reported on Wednesday.

On the flip side, the market hated the reports from the superregional banks. Even the stocks that beat top and bottom line expectations were punished.

The main driver of these adverse reactions to these stocks was weak guidance. 

Moreover, these companies haven't been able to increase their net interest margins in a rising rate environment like the big banks have, and we expect that to continue being a...

This one is wild, but hear me out.

I just wrote about how the worst groups aren't breaking down.

Support zones are holding and bears are struggling to take control at key levels.

We’re seeing it with both short and longer term patterns and we’re seeing it across all areas of the market. Bulls keep digging in where they need to.

So I came across this pattern in Nike and thought why not. 

Make no mistake this is a purely technical call… for the most part.

I mean, seriously. Nike is one of the all-time great American brands. That still counts for something.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in ARKK.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XLB position.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Today’s standout insider activity comes from Neogen Corporation $NEOG.

Both the CEO and CFO filed Form 4s, reporting significant purchases of their company’s stock.

When the company’s top executives—the strategic decision-maker (CEO) and the financial steward (CFO)—make simultaneous moves, it’s a signal worth noting.

These leaders have valuable insights into the company’s numbers, projections, and future direction.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from January 16, 2025:

Control Empresarial De Capitales SA revealed an additional $2.8 million investment in PBF Energy, increasing its ownership stake to an impressive 25.17%.

Last but not least, Broadwood Partners disclosed the acquisition of 29,376 shares of STAAR Surgical Company $STAA, valued at $630,838.

Today's number is... 3

After 3 years, the Consumer Discretionary versus Consumer Staples ratio has exceeded its previous cycle highs from 2021.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what it shows:

• The black line in the top panel is the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary price.
• The blue line in the middle panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary versus S&P 500 Consumer Staples.
• The black line in the bottom panel is the S&P 500 Consumer Staples price.

The Takeaway: As you have probably noticed, I have been focusing on bearish data points over the past few weeks, but it's always important to highlight some key bullish data points, particularly the breakout of this relative ratio from a 3-year base. 

This chart is one of my favorite ways to measure risk appetite. It compares discretionary stocks, which include products and services consumers buy with their discretionary...